Optimal/Cash Plays: Bo Nickal, Zhang Weili, Alex Pereira, Justin Gaethji, Arman Tsarukyan, Jamahal Hill, Max Holloway, Jim Miller, Yan Xiaonan
GPP Studs: Kayla Harrison, Deiveson Figeuiredo, Diego Lopes, Bobby Green
GPP Values: Jessica Andrade, Jiri Prochazka, Calvin Kattar, Holly Holm (Punt)
WE AREEE LIVEEEEEEEEE for one of the biggest cards in the history of the sport, UFC 300. We have an absolutely stacked and memorable card and won’t get UFC 400 for another 8 years, so there is a lot to dissect here with plenty of exciting fights to break down. One thing to note is that Dana White has increased the Fight Night Bonuses to $300k for this card which should entice fighters to seek more finishes. We usually keep things very simple, but with UFC 300 being such a special event in MMA, we’ll be breaking down every fight on this card so you get more insight into each matchup. And for those who don’t have time to read each fight’s breakdown, we’ve utilized the header above that we use for MLB and NBA so you can quickly fill out your lineups with the Optimal, GPP, midrange, and value plays on this card. And of course you can always use the projections to build quickly. Without further ado, let’s get into UFC 300!!!
We start off with the main event which features Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill in a 5 round fight for the light heavyweight title. This is a very close fight on paper where you have two dynamic strikers. The ownership is indicative of how close this fight is, with both men projecting for around 37% ownership. The spot I personally (Drew) lean with here is the Hill side because of what he brings to the table. He has an amazing chin, and hasn’t gotten wobbled in any of his fights. He also has precise striking with heavy power in his punches. He thrives off of volume and should out volume Pereira if this goes into the later rounds. Pereira on the other hand has been noticeably hurt by fighters with less power, such as Izzy, and Periera isn’t a volume striker, rather relying on his power to take his opponents out, which he does do very well. Periera also knows how to utilize his strong leg kicks which should serve him well in this spot, especially considering Hill is coming off an achilles injury. Pereira should also be the fresher fighter here since Hill is coming off that year-long hiatus. As for DFS purposes, this fight is viable in all formats since it could go 5 rounds, although it’s not expected to. Most lineups will feature one of these guys, and while that is optimal, with so many fights on the card I wouldn’t say it’s required.
Our co-main event features the Women’s Strawweight Championship bout between Zhang Weili and Yan Xiaonan. This is our next cash game play, as Weili projects as one of the highest owned fighters on the slate and for good reason since she is a huge favorite in a fight that has a good shot to go 5 rounds. The reason Weili projects so well is because Xionan’s kryptonite is her wrestling, as that is where she tends to get exposed. Weili has displayed much improved and overall solid wrestling in her previous fights and should have an easy time getting this fight to the ground and working towards a finish. If Weili doesn’t find the finish, she should still put on a dominating performance that could net her a very high score that you won’t want to miss out on.
Our next matchup is the people’s main event, Max Holloway vs Justin Gaethje for the BMF belt. These two have proved on countless occasions that they are willing to die on their sword for that finish and will have extra motivation given the increased Fight Night bonus. Max Holloway is one bad MF, and he can outclass most fighters. However, this spot is a lot to ask for from Holloway with him moving up a weight class to take on a fighter of Gaethje’s caliber, which is why we lean towards Gaethje. Gaethje has massive power and seems to be only getting better. His leg kicks should be impactful in this fight. Sure, Max Holloway can put on volume, but we dont believe he’ll be able to take Justin’s overwhelming power as the fight goes on and he could get finished in this spot. With how cheap Max Holloway is though, he projects for more ownership and is really hard to pass on with his volume. We are siding with Justin Gaethje here to win the fight, but we wouldn’t fault you for playing Max to get a value play projecting for a monster score. In cash games you need to just play both of them. In GPPs I even think it’s viable to stack this fight if you think it will go 5 rounds, as both guys can rack up volume scoring and the decision win isn’t worth all that much. If it goes to Gaethje but Max scores 80 points on striking then the stack could work. That being said, I generally dislike stacking in GPPs because you need such a specific outcome. We also play to have fun and that’s not fun at all. So I’d say pick a side in GPPs and stack it in cash.
The next matchup is my personal favorite fight on the card which is Charles Oliveira vs Arman Tsarukyan. We are siding with Arman Tsarukyan as he presents such a tough test for Oliveira who has played a very dangerous game acting as Houdini in his last 3 fights. He’s usually wobbled before coming back to take down his opponents and finish them. We don’t believe that happens here as Tsarukyan has elite defense, only being taken down by Islam Makhachev. Without being able to get this fight to the ground, it will result in a stand up affair where Tsarukyan should find the KO blow with how poor Oliveira is defensively. Tsarukyan makes for a great play in both formats where he is an optimal piece that could get overlooked by the likes of Justin Gaethji and Jalin Turner.
The next matchup will open up the main card which features rising prospect Bo Nickal vs Cody Brundage. This is a simple breakdown because there isn’t much to discuss. Bo Nickal is a -1600 favorite, which is why he is projected to be the top fighter in points and in ownership. This is as much of a lock as it gets, if you can spend up for Bo Nickal it is highly recommended you do because he will find a finish over a fighter with bad IQ and horrible durability. Nickal could potentially post a very high score that you can’t afford to miss out on. He’s a great play in every format and only worth fading for ownership. Most people will see him as a stone cold lock but I will say there’s a path to him not scoring all that well. If he finds the finish in R1 after 30 seconds but before the final minutes, he may not do enough to beat Weili. You likely can’t afford them both, so I actually might prefer Weili, particularly on DK where she could rack up control time. On FD I think Nickal is better because there’s more of a bonus for R1 win and there’s no quick finish bonus to worry about, and Weili won’t get control time.
The early prelim headliner features a matchup between Jalin Turner and Renato Moicano which should be a very exciting fight. We are siding with Jalin Turner here as he has the tools to continue rising to stardom and we don’t believe Moicano has the skills necessary to win in this spot. When Jalin Turner gets exposed it’s against power wrestlers like Mateuz Gamrot and Matt Frevola. Moicano is not a power wrestler, therefore he’ll likely have a tough time getting this fight to the ground which should lead to Jalin Turner picking him apart on the feet and potentially finding a finish. The reach and power that Turner brings to this fight is a lot to overcome and this is truly a nightmare matchup for Moicano. A common theme for this card is the $300k fight bonuses, and Turner is known for finishing his opponents in spectacular fashion and will have a good chance to do that against Moicano who isn’t the most durable of fighters. Turner is viable in all formats and he will be popular with ownership in the 30% range due to his finishing capabilities.
Now if we want to spend up for studs, we are going to need to find value and the first value play on the board will be Jiri Prochazka who takes on Aleksander Rakic. Rakic tends to fight tentative and throws low volume. Rakic is also coming off a long layoff, and this matchup against Prochazka isn’t a good one for him. Jiri has tremendous power, can grapple if needed and has the gas tank to compliment the wrestling as he showed in his fight against Glover Texiera where he notched a 5th round submission. This is his return to the octagon since losing his title and with a $300k fight bonus on the line, we envision Prochazka searching for the finish here against a very vulnerable Rakic.
Our next bout is a featherweight matchup in Aljamain Sterling vs. Calvin Kattar where we will be siding with the value once again in Kattar. The reason we side with Kattar is because of his stellar 91% TD defense which will be key in this fight as that will likely be Aljo’s gameplan. Without the takedowns, this fight will be kept on the feet where both fighters are volume strikers, however Kattar will deliver the more meaningful and impactful shots that should look good to the judges. It will be a close fight but in a card where value will be key, Kattar is worth taking a shot on if looking to avoid the chalk value pieces on this slate.
Our next matchup is a fight between Jessica Andrade and Marina Rodriguez where we find our next value play in Andrade. The factor that makes Andrade a great value play is the wrestling that she can utilize in this matchup vs. Rodriguez who doesn’t defend takedowns well. Andrade’s strong physicality should be a huge advantage here with Andrade being able to close the distance, grind Marina up against the cage and get Rodriguez to the ground where she can then utilize her ground and pound. We have seen Andrade get finishes in multiple fight and this is a sneaky spot for her to get a finish against Rodriguez who has never faced a fighter as physically strong and as imposing as Jessica Andrade.
The second matchup on this card is between Bobby Green and Jim Miller where we will be siding with the value play here in Jim Miller. Miller brings power and wrestling in this matchup that Green does not have. Miller would be smart to avoid standing on the feet against his opponent because Green is a very precise and solid volume striker that will pick you apart over 3 rounds if you don’t take him out or get him to the ground the way Islam Makhachev did. Jim Miller is a very physically strong wrestler who can use his grappling to get this fight to the mat and does have solid striking power to KO Green if this does stay on the feet. We like the upside Miller brings to this fight and the ownership is also reflective of that as Miller projects to be a higher owned fighter than Bobby Green. I will throw in a buyer beware with this value play because if Miller can’t get this fight to the mat or find the KO blow, Bobby Green could pick up a decision as he picks apart Miller on the feet. We believe Miller has the upside to win this fight and put on a show to help kickoff the early prelims.
Another midrange fighter we like from the prelims is rising prospect Diego Lopes, taking on Sodiq Yusuff. Lopes brings his Brazilian BJJ to this fight which could really play to his advantage. He lives and dies by the takedown so knowing he comes into this fight with a certain game plan is very reassuring as once he gets this fight to the mat he should be able to find the submission which is what he seeks most in his fights. Diego Lopes has had entertaining fights in the past and with the fight bonus at $300k, a common theme is that fighters will be more urgent to find a finish rather than settle for a dominating decision. Lopes should seek the submission finish that will make him a great upside play amongst all the midrange candidates.
Now for some GPP only options, we have two fights that stand out. The first is in the matchup between UFC newcomer Kayla Harrison vs Holly Holm in what should be an exciting matchup. This will be a GPP play for us as Kayla Harrison has anemic ownership and will be one the lowest owned favorites on the slate, which makes her a great contrarian play if looking to pivot off the chalky studs. Kayla Harrison should pick up where Mayra Bueno Silva left off, exposing Holly Holm with her aging woes as Holm no longer has the same speed and strength as she once did in her prime. Harrison is a very strong wrestler that can have her way with Holm and look to put on a dominating performance and search for that finish to make a statement in her UFC debut. The only question is Harrison’s gas tank as this is her first time making 135 pounds. She made weight on Friday and looked great on the scales so we don’t believe it’ll hamper her too much. Holm on the other hand is on the backend of her career at 42 years old and durability at her old age should be a factor in this fight that could ultimately cost her.
Our final GPP play is in the first fight between Cody Garbrandt and Deivison Figueiredo. We believe Cody Garbrandt’s demons of being an aggressive fighter will come back to haunt him in this spot against Figgy. Garbrandt will most certainly want to put on a show and will be searching for a finish to get that $300k bonus but we believe that will be what costs him here. Cody Garbrandt still has no chin to speak of, so if he gets aggressive, Figeiuredo has the power and skill to land the KO blow. Figgy is also a very physically strong fighter that can land the takedowns necessary to drain Cody’s gas tank and find the finish via submission. Figueiredo can find the finish in multiple ways which makes for an excellent spot to target him and pivot away from the chalky studs.