As your resident Seattle Mariners fan here at RGP, I have done a ton of research on Seattle’s chances to make the postseason this season – and I am here to tell you the time is now to strike on a number of key futures. Our top bets are found below:
Seattle Mariners to win the AL West: +1100 (BetMGM)
Seattle Mariners to win the AL: +2000 (Caesars)
Seattle Mariners to win the World Series: +5000 (Caesars)
You may be wondering why these are phenomenal bets to take right now – I will walk you through a number of reasons including the tiebreaker situation and the in-depth schedule analysis that also led to us smashing the Mariners to make the playoffs last year before they went on their 14 game winning streak. I dug into it again this year and saw the exact same thing setting up.
Seattle is in a superb spot to make the postseason as they currently sit just 1 GB the Toronto Blue Jays at the time of this writing but they actually are ahead of them in the loss column. The huge key here is that Seattle will hold the tie-breaker over Toronto if they end up tied as they split the season series 3-3 but the second tie breaker is intra-divisional record. Toronto sits at a paltry 11-23 vs. the AL East while Seattle is 19-11 vs. the AL West. This all but assures Seattle of the tie breaker over them which could be huge. They also are in great shape to own the tie breaker over the Houston Astros who they are 5-2 against this season. They have six remaining games against them and would have to go 1-5 over those six games to lose the tie breaker. This could have impact in both the wild card and divisional races.
The final huge thing to consider here is when you get to this point in the MLB season, franchises have very disparate schedules remaining, especially as it pertains to teams competing against each other for the Wild Card as they play in different divisions and the back end of the MLB calendar is loaded with tons of divisional games. Right now, Seattle has the fourth easiest schedule remaining in the majors and the third easiest in the AL with a combined opponent winning percentage of .481 the rest of the way. The only two teams with easier AL schedules are the Tigers and White Sox who play the horrid AL Central over and over and over again.
The primary reason we love taking a chance on them to win the division is that they currently sit 3 GB Houston and have the clear path to the tie breaker over them. Texas, on the other hand, seems to be the real threat here. But they have an absolute gauntlet to get through the rest of the season as they have the sixth hardest remaining schedule in the AL with a combined opponent winning percentage of .504. At just 5.5 games ahead of Seattle currently, we firmly believe that the Mariners will be able to close significant ground on them the rest of the season. The two teams end the year with seven of their final ten games against each other in two series that very easily could decide the division.
Now – back to the schedule analysis. The real reason to hop on these bets IMMEDIATELY is that (1) Seattle is red freaking hot right now and is looking like they will be on track to win their eighth straight game tonight. They have the best record in the majors since July 1 and (2) their schedule after this series against Baltimore is absurdly easy the rest of the month. After this series, they have the following series to close out the month of August: 4 @ KC, 3 @ HOU, 3 @ CWS, 3 vs. KC, 3 vs. OAK. That is seven games against the Royals, three against the White Sox, and three against the A’s. They are poised to go on a major run in the next two weeks and getting these bets in now will provide you with exceptional value.
Obviously, in order to win most of these, you either would have to cash out the bets or see the Mariners actually make it to the World Series for the first time in franchise history. The thing is that the Mariners may be the most fearsome team anybody would have to face if they make it into the dance. Last year, they swept the Jays in the Wild Card round and then the Astros said they were the toughest team they had to face period in the Divisional series. They ran into Yordan Alvarez one too many times but really did have a chance to win every single game of that series against Houston. The reason for that (and the reason why they would be a damn tough out in the postseason this year) is their starting pitching. The trio of Castillo, Kirby, and Gilbert are three of the top 14 ERAs in the American League currently. When you mix in bullpen arms like Matt Brash and Andres Munoz, you have the makings of a team that can really shorten postseason games when matchups are paramount and everyone is available nightly. There are just too many things working in the Mariners favor right now to ignore and these odds are not reflective of the opportunity the next three weeks will provide them. Lock them in now before it is too late!