On this slate, we’re going to talk about quarterbacks first, because Skylar Thompson really stands out as the top play. The Dolphins will have 2 QBs available, which makes it highly likely that we get a full half out of Thompson. However, with the other QB being 28-year-old journeyman Mike White, it seems more likely that Thompson could play more than a half if one of them were going to. White is a viable play on the slate and will play with the better offensive players in the first half, but will also face the better defensive players. Most people will probably look to Miami or Detroit for their QB on this slate, so let’s get into Detroit. They also have just two QBs and will likely be starting Nate Sudfeld, who is a 30-year-old journeyman that probably doesn’t need that many reps. That really opens the door for 2+ quarters of playing time for Adrian Martinez, who is known as a runner. I think the runner label on him might lead to his ownership exceeding Skylar, even though I have Skylar projected better. Tommy DeVito is the third QB that fits the mold of backup to an aging veteran in Tyrod Taylor. He looks like a good play as he could exceed 2 quarters of playing time as well. He seems the least likely to smash of the three, but it’s preseason so anything could happen. If you want a super GPP QB tonight you could run Jake Fromm from Washington. They have 3 QBs available but the rumor is that Fromm should play the most. It’s preseason DFS, so one big quarter could be enough for the optimal score. I think there’s a good chance he plays 2 quarters and should come in very low owned.
At RB, Eric Gray and Mohamed Ibrahim look like the optimal backs to target on this slate. Gray is on a depth chart plagued with injuries and should have just himself and 2 healthy bodies to compete with as he fights for the RB2 job. Ibrahim is in a similar situation with an injury-filled depth chart and shouldnt have much competition to deal with either. He should see plenty of opportunities here and we watched him break records at Minnesota so we know what he’s capable of when he gets chances. After those two, some other guys worth targeting are Jashuan Corbin, Demetric Felton and Tyler Goodson/Patrick Taylor. Corbin will be in the same backfield as Eric Gray only having 2 healthy bodies to deal with, so you could certainly play both if trying to get unique. Felton played 35 snaps in the Hall of Fame Game and should continue to see opportunities with a thin depth chart as they try to work him into a true NFL ready RB. Goodson/Taylor are in a heated battle for the RB3 job in Green Bay according to camp reports, and both should have plenty of opportunities to prove themselves tonight. Similar to Gray/Corbin, you can make a case to play both of these guys as well in a GPP lineup to be unique. Some deeper GPP options are Tyler Badie, Chase Brown and Godwin Igwebuike. Badie should only have 2 other healthy bodies with him after we get a small dose of the starters leaving plenty of opportunities for Badie. Brown has injuries plaguing the depth chart and should see plenty of touches here as a rookie. Igwebuike should see plenty of opportunities here as the depth chart is thin and we know Atlanta loves to pound the run game. I know this is a lot of options, but RB is the most important position, and you want 3 in every lineup. Your FLEX spot in preseason is always RB.
We also want to mention John Kelly Jr., who smashed for us in the HOF game and should continue to get opportunities tonight. He seems like he’ll be slept on yet again as we got him low owned in that showdown and the industry doesn’t seem to be talking about him much tonight. He’s a GPP play only, but he has upside once again as the Browns are expected to pull their starters after just a quarter or so.
At wide receiver, you probably want to start with Erik Ezukanma. Last year he had a really solid preseason and he should get ample opportunity tonight with Miami resting a lot of veterans. He could lead the slate in targets and that’s of course the priority when picking receivers. Jameson Williams also has a lot of upside if we believe the coach speak about him. He’s really tough to project because a player of his caliber ordinarily wouldn’t play a ton in these games, but the coaches have said they want to give him extra reps in the preseason since he’s missed so much time already and will be out for the first 6 games with a suspension. I would expect him to be chalky and he’s a lock in cash, but he could be worth a fade in GPPs as I think most people want to use a big name like him in a spot where he could get a ton of playing him. He’s definitely viable to break the slate with a huge game, but he could also play just a quarter or two and everyone gets burned by the coach speak. We’ve certainly seen it go both ways in the past. The safer options in the Detroit passing game are Denzel Mims and Dylan Drummond, who are likely fighting for the WR3 role and should get plenty of opportunities to prove themselves this preseason. Obviously Jameson Williams is more talented than these two, but the playing time is safer for Mims and Drummond while the ownership will probably be lower. For this reason, I’d rather use them in GPPs. Another guy fighting for a shot at the WR3 role for his team is Cedric Tillman, and he should be lower owned than the guys above with a lot of upside, making him a great GPP option. The last guy to touch on here is Michael Wilson. Reports have been saying Wilson is absolutely crushing in camp and we expect the Cards to give him opportunities here to show what he’s capable of.
At tight end, it’s Tanner Hudson and then everyone else. He’s clearly the optimal play, and unlike last night where the chalk TE was barely projected for anything more than the others, Hudson actually projects like 25% better than the rest of them. He’s historically been excellent in the preseason, but he is in a different situation this year, and even projecting 25% better at TE is still less than a full point better. So in GPPs, I just can’t eat the chalk at this position. I would rather play Lawrence Cager or Thomas Greaney. Cager is another guy who has had preseason success in the past, and the Giants have a pretty thin TE pool available tonight, so he should definitely get some run. Greaney didn’t do much for us in the HOF game, but he did play over half the snaps, so if he keeps doing that he could eventually have a good game. In cash you just play Hudson, but in GPPs I’d use one of these pivot plays.
At defense, it’s really a crapshoot like I said last night. I’d just try to get weird with a defense that other people probably won’t use. The Steelers and Bucs have the highest total, which might drive people away from that game, but all that probably means is that Vegas expects more passing and more total plays to be run. That’s good news for a defense, so I’d probably go with one of those two teams.
Conclusion: We have a nice slate here with some good options at each position. I feel like a summary doesn’t really do it justice so I’d just recommend reading each section. I guess a super quick overview of the optimal guys at each position would be Thompson or Martinez at QB, Gray and Ibrahim at RB, Ezukanma and Mims at WR, and Hudson at TE. However, I wouldn’t just play all those guys and call it a day. Try to work in some of the GPP options at each position to differentiate your lineups.