CPT: Quintana (#1 optimal), Lindor (#1 GPP), Alonso (#2 GPP), Contreras (#3 GPP), Adames (#4 GPP)
Flex: Quintana, Lindor, Alonso, Adames, Contreras, Hoskins, Chourio, Sanchez, Martinez, Vientos, Nimmo, Taylor, Alvarez
Bad Chalk: Meyers, Brewers’ value bats: Ortiz, Perkins, Frelick
Relievers: Diaz, Williams
With all but one of the 3 game wild card series matchups ending in a 2-0 sweep, we are left with one game left to fill out the field in the Division Series. Let’s get right into it.
Tonight we have the New York Mets on the road in Milwaukee taking on the Brewers. The Mets are starting left hander Jose Quintana who will be opposed by Brewers’ right hander Tobias Meyers. The optimal route typically tells you to roster one or both pitchers, but tonight we do not think that this is the best path. Starting with Meyers, through two playoff games it is fairly obvious that the Brewers do not want to let the Mets’ batters see their starter a third time around. On Tuesday we saw Freddy Peralta yanked at just 68 pitches, even though he had seemingly settled down after a rough second inning. Last night, we saw Montas pulled after just 62 pitches. Montas actually struck out back to back batters to start the third and was pulled as soon as Lindor was set to step in the box for a third time. We would not expect them to treat Tobias Meyers any differently this evening which makes him a full fade for us, especially in GPPs.
The Mets on the other hand, through two games, have let their starters go a tad bit deeper and work through some early game troubles. This makes us trust Quintana a little bit more, but with sub 20% strikeout rates to both sides, he is not a lock by any stretch of the imagination. The Met’s bullpen has been a bit taxed, but we have seen time and time again in big leverage games like this managers keeping their starters on a very short leash, especially when it is their 3rd or 4th best starting pitching option.
Shifting to the bullpens, we do think there could be some opportunity in GPPs to roster a bullpen arm given that we think both pitchers could be on short leashes. For the Brewers, we think we are most likely to see some combination of Aaron Ashby, Devin Williams, Nick Mears, and DL Hall. The only two that we really do not think we would see would be Joel Papayas who has thrown back to back days, and Trevor Megill who threw 22 pitches last night. DL Hall would be the top candidate for any type of bulk work, in 7 September appearances, 4 of them saw Hall pitch 2 or more innings including one outing where he piggy backed 4 solid innings behind starter Collin Rea. Unfortunately, Hall is not priced as a reliever and should not be rostered on this slate, this is more a note of the potential matchup for the Mets bats, which we’ll get to.. Devin Williams is far and away the Brewers best option out of the bullpen as the team’s primary closer. The only way we do not see Williams getting into the game is if the Brewers are beating the Mets handedly. In an elimination game, we would expect to see Williams at some point if things stay close, even if it is not a save situation. That said, Williams does not have any outings this season pitching more than 1 inning which could really cap his upside.
On the other side, Edwin Diaz would be our top choice, and we have seen the Mets go to him in high leverage situations late in games even if that means asking Diaz to get more than the 3 outs in a traditional save situation. His last appearance was Monday against the Braves when they called on him with one out in the 8th. Similarly to Williams’ it is hard to imagine a game that stays close not featuring Diaz in some capacity. We typically do not see a team leave their best relief option on the bench in games of this magnitude. Diaz strikes out batters from both sides nearly 40% of the time and could easily be asked to get 5-6 outs.
Shifting the bats, the Brewers RHH look like the spot to attack tonight. Contreras (.173/.341), Adames (.171/.414), Sanchez (.252/.343), Hoskins (.211/.308), and Chourio (.xwOBA .322) all have solid X stats against lefties like Quintana. That said, after Quintana, the Mets only have one LHP option out of the bullpen and for the most part will need to rely on righties once Quintana is chased. Of the 5 batters mentioned, all 5 with the exception of Sanchez, have solid right on right X stats. We think this makes it easy to narrow it down to those 4-5 Brewers as they will have solid matchups throughout the ball game whether it’s against the starter or anyone out of the bullpen.
On the other side, it gets a little bit trickier to nail down. We would expect Meyers to face the lineup two times through, but after that the Brewers do have a few left handed options they could look to, including Hall who may have to slide into a bulk relief role if things really get sideways for Meyers. This makes us really like the switch hitting versatility of Francisco Lindor who mashes both righties and lefties equally with xISOs of .240 or above against both. Alonso (.227/.347 vs RHP, .217/.340 vs LHP), Vientos (.238/.344 vs RHP, .203/.314 vs LHP), Martinez (.198/.327 vs RHP, .292/.430), and Nimmo (.182/.344 vs RHP, .320 xwOBA vs LHP) would be our next favorite options based on their ability to hit pitchers from both sides equally well. If looking for a value bat, we prefer Taylor and Alvarez over any of the Brewers’ value guys. Meyers, Hall, and Williams all throw a healthy amount of fastballs and both Taylor and Alvarez have decent X stats against fastballs from both sides of the plate.
Overall, we think this is a great slate to take a stand on a reliever for salary relief and then load up on the expensive bats. Diaz would be our favorite option with his exceptional K rates and potential to throw more than 1 inning. We see 4-5 batters on both teams as far and away top options when compared to their teammates. By fading the starting pitching spots and punting on a reliever you should be able to avoid the chalkier value bats that we do not think are in a great spot. The top value bats to consider would be Alvarez or Taylor. Lindor or Alonso would be our top picks at captain from the Mets side, and Contreras or Adames would be our top choices from the Brewers side. We think this game could produce a lot of offense so creating a balanced lineup of just bats is viable as well. If you are playing cash and would like to use a starting pitcher, we give the nod to Quintana over Meyers.
Good luck everyone!