CPT/MVP Plays: London (Optimal), Godwin, Evans, Mayfield, McCloud (GPP Value), Otton (GPP Value), Shepard (Punt)
FLEX/UTIL: Cousins, Robinson, White, Mooney, Irving, K. Johnson (Punt), Koo, McLaughlin, TAM D/ST (Optimal Defense), ATL D/ST (GPP Defense)
We kick off Week 5 of the NFL season with yet another primetime game for the Atlanta Falcons as they get set to host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an NFC South Divisional clash. Tampa Bay sits at 3-1 and the Falcons are 2-2, so both teams will be looking for a win in this one that sees the Falcons installed as 1.5-point favorites with a 44-point total. This should be a fun one, so let’s get right into it!
We will start things off with the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers. All signs point to go for their passing game in this one. Through four games, they sit 6th in pass rate and 2nd in PROE, which tells us that they will take to the sky even more than they otherwise need to. Outside of one bad start against the Denver Broncos, Baker Mayfield has been sublime this season and has posted two 30+ fantasy point performances already. The Falcons are below average in a ton of metrics against the pass including PFF’s passing grade, EPA vs. the pass, and pressure rate. With the upside he has flashed, he is certainly usable as a GPP CPT and should be in most of your lineups as a flex option.
Given that Mayfield looks exceptional, it should come as no surprise that we also have a ton of love for his pass catchers. One thing that is phenomenal about the Bucs is just how concentrated the targets are. We will get the obvious out of the way first, both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are fantastic options here to stack up with Baker. The issue is that they are both quite expensive and project for lower ownership than most other expensive options on the slate. That is primarily because they grade out as slightly worse value than the other options. With people choosing to jam in some of the Falcons studs as well, the full Mayfield, Godwin, Evans build will not be as chalky as you may think it would be. An insane 47% of the team’s target share and 70% of the team’s air yards have gone to Godwin and Evans. Trying to distinguish between them is tough. Our lean would be to play Evans in GPPs over Godwin if only playing one of them for a couple of reasons. To start, Evans is projected for slightly lesser ownership. On top of that, he is the big play threat with 43% of the team’s air yards versus 27% for Godwin. Godwin does have a higher target share out of the slot (26% vs. 21% for Evans), which raises his floor and makes him more optimal. No matter how you attack this situation, the three of them are poised for a very splashy game. Outside of Evans and Godwin, both Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer are out for Tampa, leaving a gaping hole for Cade Otton to slide right into. Otton got off to a slow start but rounded into form over the last two weeks. He is third on the team in target rate and his expected fantasy points per game are much higher than his actual output, telling us that positive regression should be incoming at some point. This is a very good matchup for him to exploit as the Falcons rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to opposing TEs this season. He grades out as a better value than all of the studs on the slate, making him a viable GPP CPT option. The last time the Bucs were on a Showdown slate was in the Divisional Round of the playoffs last year against the Lions. The optimal CPT in that one? You guessed it…Cade Otton. Sterling Shepard will assume the WR3 duties for the Bucs here. He is egregiously cheap and popped off for his price last week with 3 catches for 51 yards and was targeted 5 times. That kind of involvement for a value player cannot be ignored and he too can be used as a GPP value CPT. Lastly, undrafted rookie Kameron Johnson is priced all the way down at the minimum and has a path to seeing routes as the WR4 for Tampa Bay. If you need a cheap punt play to jam in the studs, he is 100% the one to choose.
The running game for both teams is a complete wild card at this point. For the Bucs, Rachaad White was their clear top back last season and did not appear to have a threat to his role coming into this season. However, that has now changed with the emergence of Bucky Irving. The common thought here is that this is going to be a 50-50 timeshare moving forward. However, we saw something interesting pop up last week as the Bucs ran a number of two RB sets with White working out of the slot. They are priced pretty similarly to one another on both sites, with White just ahead of Irving in both price and projected ownership. This does very much feel like a spot where if you want to play, you kind of just have to close your eyes and pray you pick right. Our lean would ever so slightly go to White but we would rather play this slate through the receiving options anyway, relegating both of them to flex consideration only.
Now, we flip sides over to the Falcons. They are led by Captain Kirk Cousins at the QB position. The issue for Cousins is that he is exceptionally immobile at this point and the Falcons are passing the ball at quite a low rate. They currently sit 17th in passing rate and 21st in PROE, which means that they are throwing it even less than they otherwise should be in neutral situations. The Bucs are a clear pass funnel thanks to the presence of Vita Vea on the defensive line. However, they have been quite staunch against the pass this season as well, ranking 4th in PFF’s passing grade and 13th in EPA against the pass. The Falcons have one of the worst pass-blocking lines in the league and that will not help matters for Kirk here. Cousins ranks just 18th in yards per attempt and has scored less than 13 fantasy points in three of four starts this season. Despite that, he is projected for the 4th-highest ownership on the slate given his relatively cheap price for a quarterback. We are not high on his ultimate upside here and think he is best used as a flex play at most for the raw point floor he provides.
In terms of receiving options, they are headlined by Drake London, who leads the team in target rate, air yards, and fantasy points per game. Like Otton, his expected fantasy points have been lagging his actual output all season long, so positive regression is bound to fly in at some point. He has now averaged over 9 targets per game over their last three contests and is cheaper than both Godwin and Evans on the other side. As a result, he is projected for one of the highest ownerships on the slate and is our preferred optimal captain tonight. Outside of Drake, Darnell Mooney continues to be a very good play for the Falcons. He is the proud owner of a 24% first-read rate from Cousins this year, which leads the team and he has amassed 33% of the team’s air yards, just 4% behind London. He has now been priced up to a level that is dinging his value some, making him more of a flex consideration for us. Ray-Ray McCloud is simply too cheap. He grades out as better value than both Otton and Shepard tonight as he has picked up 20% of the team’s air yards and has 15 catches for 163 yards already this season. He is certainly usable as a GPP value CPT option and is the best choice in that spot. Lastly, we have Kyle Pitts, who is just the pits at this point. He is going to be pretty low-owned as a result of all the duds he keeps throwing up but he still is projected for around 20% ownership. Our lean with him is to let whatever chunk of the field wants to chase him do just that.
Like Tampa Bay, the running back situation for the Falcons leaves a ton to be desired. However, that is not stopping the masses from flocking en masse to Bijan Robinson. Bijan has been a large disappointment for season-long owners who drafted him in the first round this season. He has been just mediocre, averaging 4.1 yards per carry and catching 15 passes through four games. He has scored between 11-16.2 fantasy points in each of the first four games and is seeing his ceiling get significantly clipped by Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier is averaging 6.1 YPC this year, a full two yards per carry more than Bijan, so we do not see his role in the offense leaving us any time soon. With how highly-owned Bijan is looking to be, we think he is best used as a flex play at most given the capped ceiling. Allgeier is a viable cheaper option, however, with the presence of options like McCloud, Shepard, and Otton, he simply is a GPP-only option for us as he is in a much more sub-par position than all of them.
In terms of the defenses and specialists, our top kicker tonight is Younghoe Koo. Both he and Chase McLaughlin are projected for extremely similar ownership and points tonight. Koo is slightly more expensive and is also projected for 0.3 more raw points than Chase. However, McLaughlin is also 7-7 kicking field goals this season and is a strong play in his own right. You honestly cannot go wrong with either of them and our suggestion is to play the kicker that fits the game script you are building for. For the defenses, as we mentioned, Atlanta is terrible at pass protection, and that brings the Tampa Bay D/ST into play as we want to target spots where they have significant sack upside. The lack of mobility for Kirk only helps matters. The Atlanta D/ST is a GPP-only option for us as they rank 28th in PFF’s pass rush grade and the Tampaa offensive line has allowed the 2nd lowest pressure rate in the league this season. With how much the Bucs pass, a Pick 6 is always a possibility though. Best of luck tonight!