Pitchers (FanDuel players can skip):
Brian Bernardino will get the ball to start tonight for Boston followed by Chris Murphy in bulk. Bernardino is a good option in cash as a minimum priced reliever to use as a value piece since we know he’ll have an opportunity to score points. The left hander Murphy threw 4.2 innings of scoreless bulk work in his last outing against the A’s while striking out six. Murphy has reverse splits, allowing a .185 xISO and .366 xwOBA to lefthanded bats while right-handed hitters hold a .085 xISO and .256 xwOBA against him. He’s also struck out 31.4% of right-handed hitters he’s faced compared to 18.9% for lefties. This Mets lineup haven’t struck out a ton against lefties this season, but they have just a .133 ISO and .277 wOBA against them on the season. Murphy is viable in either the captain or a flex spot tonight. Two other relievers mentioned by Cora were Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen, so those are two other names to consider tonight as value relievers, but you only need to consider them in very large GPPs to get super contrarian.
The Mets will send Carlos Carrasco to the mound tonight. Carrasco has been hit hard this season allowing a .192 xISO to lefties and a .244 xISO to righties as well as xwOBAs over .375 to both sides of the plate. He hasn’t been able to generate many strikeouts with just a 16.2% K rate, but does have a 28.2% K rate over the last 30 days against right-handed hitters. Boston is a tough matchup as their lineup has some outstanding numbers against right-handed pitching on the season. They’ve hit right-handed pitching for a .202 ISO and .342 xwOBA to go along with a hard-hit rate of 48.7%. Carrasco projects to be pretty highly owned on this slate and is a viable play, but he has blow up potential and could be a smart fade against a strong Red Sox lineup.
Hitters:
We know the Mets will see at least two lefty pitchers from the Red Sox tonight, so we’ll look for some bats that profile well against southpaws. One of the obvious answers is first baseman Pete Alonso who is right near the top of our projections tonight and has smoked left-handed pitching for a .279 xISO and .392 xwOBA on the season. He doesn’t project to see a ton of ownership on DraftKings and could be worth a shot in the captain slot in deep GPPs. Francisco Lindor projects to be one of the higher-owned stud plays on the slate, coming in a bit cheaper than some of the other top plays. He also possesses solid numbers hitting from the right-hand side of the plate this season, hitting lefties for a .255 xISO and .332 xwOBA. Adding in his stolen base upside, Lindor is one of the highest ceiling plays on tonight’s slate. Brandon Nimmo also projects to see a good amount of ownership on this slate, but we don’t see this being a great matchup for him. He doesn’t rank super highly in our projections tonight and has just a .107 xISO against lefties this season. Mark Canha ranks as our top point per dollar play on tonight’s slate and is a solid value play who projects to be a popular play. He has a respectable .175 xISO overall against left-handed pitching but has mashed their fastballs for a .234 xISO and .363 xwOBA. Mark Vientos is another low salary option from the Mets lineup who doesn’t project to see as much ownership as Canha. Vientos doesn’t have a large sample size against them but holds a .175 xISO and .408 xwOBA in 22 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season.
Rafael Devers checks in as the top player in our projections tonight, and it doesn’t look like he’s going to be way too chalky on DraftKings. We think he’s an awesome option tonight as he holds xISOs over .200 against all three of Carrasco’s most used pitches to left-handed hitters as well as a .294 xISO and .393 xwOBA against righties overall. We think he’s the top bat on this slate and is a great play as either a flex or captain. A cheaper bat from this team we love is Jarren Duran. He’s a good bit cheaper than some of the other top bats but projects extremely well in our model and is projected to be the highest-owned Boston bat on this slate. Masataka Yoshida will also garner some ownership from this lineup tonight. He holds a .183 xISO and .358 xwOBA against righties and holds xISOs over .220 against curveballs and changeups, two pitches that Carrasco throws for nearly 50% of his pitches to lefties. Triston Casas is another cheaper bat for Boston with some upside. He’s mashed righties for a .277 xISO and .379 xwOBA on the season. As we mentioned above, Carrasco gives up a bit more damage to righties and sets up Adam Duvall and Justin Turner in really nice spots. Both project well for us but Duvall will see slightly more ownership than Turner. If choosing between the two we would give the slight edge to Duvall over Turner.
Conclusion:
There are a few different ways to go on this slate, but our favorite is to fade Carrasco and go with more Boston bats than New York bats. The top priority bats are Devers and Alonso, with Duran and Casas providing salary relief from the Boston side while Canha is the best value play from New York.