Top Stacks: NYY, ARI, ATL, CIN, LAD
Top Pitchers: Luzardo (Optimal #1), Bradley, Severino, Gore, Nola (GPP), Ober (GPP)
Today’s slate features a clear top arm in Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins. We have him projected as by far the highest-owned pitcher on this slate as well as the top performer. The young left hander has been fantastic for the Marlins this season, pitching to a 3.57 xFIP while holding both sides of the plate to xwOBAs under .310. He’s given up a bit of power to right-handed bats with a .187 xISO allowed on the season but over the last 30 days he’s managed to hold righties to just a .104 xISO. The strikeouts have been there as well with K rates over 27% against both sides of the plate. Luzardo has a great matchup against a weak Colorado offense who enters this game with a lineup that has hit left-handed pitching for just a .295 wOBA and has a massive 29.6% K rate against them. Luzardo is the most talented pitcher on this slate and also has one of if not the best matchups here. He’s a core play in cash games today and is a guy that you almost have to play unless you’re really looking to get contrarian.
There’s a large gap in ownership projected between Luzardo and the next group that features Luis Severino, Taj Bradley, and Mackenzie Gore. Severino has struggled for the Yankees but has a solid matchup against the Royals today. He’s allowed xISOs over .210 and xwOBAs over .370 to both sides of the plate this year while posting just a 17.2% K rate to go along with a 9.1% swinging strike rate. The Royals lineup today however has a 25.5% K rate against righties on the season and features just three hitters with an xISO over .200 against righties on the season. Bradley on the other hand has flashed some of the talent that made him such a highly rated prospect for the Rays but has a tough matchup against the Orioles. He offers some of the K upside that Severino lacks with a 30.6% K rate on the season and an 11.5% swinging strike rate. Bradley has given up some power to right-handed bats this season, but will see seven left-handed bats from Baltimore today. He’s held lefties to just a .091 xISO and .273 xwOBA while striking them out at a 34.2% K rate. Bradley projects as our top point per dollar arm on this slate and we love his upside today. Gore is a bit more expensive than Severino or Bradley but may have the highest floor in this range. Gore could be in for some regression as his 4.64 ERA is a bit higher than his 3.83 xFIP and he faces a Giants lineup today with just three hitters that hit lefties for an xISO over .200. Gore isn’t immune to giving up power with xISOs allowed near .200 against both sides of the plate, but we don’t see a ton of threats in this lineup. His strikeout numbers have been solid as well with K rates over 26% against both sides of the plate. We’d rank these three arms Bradley/Gore/Severino.
Aaron Nola projects to be low-owed on this slate with his high salary being a bit of a hindrance with Luzardo cheaper and Nola having an inconsistent season. He looked good in his first start after the All Star break throwing 7.1 innings and striking out six while allowing two runs against Milwaukee. Nola’s K rate is down a bit this season at 24.3% but over the last month he’s striking lefties out at nearly a 30% rate. He’ll see seven lefties from the Guardians today and although he hasn’t been terrible against either side of the plate, he’s been slightly better against lefties with a .158 xISO and .290 xwOBA allowed to them on the season. We like his upside today and can get him at pretty low ownership, although we like him on FanDuel a bit more as he’s cheaper over there. Another arm we like in GPPs today is Bailey Ober. Ober and the Twins take on a White Sox lineup that has some power upside but also has a ton of swing and miss in their approach. Their lineup holds a .201 ISO against righties on the year but also has struck out at a 27.4% rate on the year. Ober has held both sides of the plate to xISOs under .170 and xwOBAs around .250. He’ll see six right-handed hitters from the White Sox and has struck them out at a 34.1% rate. Despite the threat of power from this lineup, we think that Ober could rack up the strikeouts today.
For the bats we have some pretty spread out ownership projections today with no clear top stack. Both teams in the matchup between the Reds and Diamondbacks should see a bit of ownership today. The Reds will get a bullpen game from the Diamondbacks today with Jose Ruiz starting. Arizona’s bullpen ranks 11th in xFIP this season so it won’t be a cakewalk, but bats like De La Cruz, McLain, Friedl, Steer, and Fraley stick out to us from this lineup. The Diamondbacks will see Luke Weaver from the Reds. Weaver gives up a solid amount of hard contact, allowing xISOs over .185 and xwOBAs over .365 to both sides of the plate. He’s been worse to right-handed hitters with a .253 xISO and .375 xwOBA allowed to them. He utilizes his four-seam fastball heavily against righties and Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, and Evan Longoria all profile well from the right side of the plate. On the left side of the plate, Corbin Carroll projects as one of the highest scoring bats on the slate while Jake McCarthy comes in as one of the top points per dollar plays on the slate. The Yankees are right up there with these two stacks in terms of projected ownership with our top point per dollar play in Billy McKinney who is dirt cheap and profiles well against Lyles. Jake Bauers is another intriguing cheap option from this lineup who is leading off and has hit right-handed pitching for a .324 xISO and .388 xwOBA. Oswald Peraza is another value option from this lineup that projects to see some ownership from this lineup. Both Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres profile well against Lyles’ fastball with xISOs around .220 and xwOBAs around .350 against this pitch.
The Braves and Dodgers are two full stacks that will see some of their pieces lower owned. Players like Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna, and Mookie Betts project to be popular plays on this slate but the other pieces from these lineups are not too chalky. The Braves will see Julio Teheran who has given up a lot of power to the left-side of the plate with a .229 xISO and .350 xwOBA allowed to them. This make Matt Olson, Eddie Rosario, and Michael Harris attractive options to surround Albies and Acuna in this stack. Travis d’Arnaud and Austin Riley are two of the right-handed bats from this lineup that we really like as well. For the Dodgers, they will be facing Martin Perez who struggles to miss bats and allows xISOs around .200 and xwOBAs around .360 to both sides of the plate. Perez heavily utilizes a sinker and Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and Chris Taylor all crush sinkers.
Conclusion: Our core for cash games today is Luzardo, Albies, and McKinney/Bauers as the top values with Bradley/Gore/Severino in that order for potential SP2. In GPPs we like Nola on both sites but prefer him on FanDuel with Ober being a bit more attractive on DraftKings. For stacking there isn’t a clear optimal stack but Arizona and Atlanta are our favorites. The Dodgers look like they’ll come in a bit lower owned than other stacks and are our favorite option for GPPs.