Pitchers: Nola (optimal #1), Peralta (optimal #2), Eflin (GPP #1), Gray (GPP #2)
Hitters: Phillies (optimal #1), Twins (optimal #2), Rays (GPP #1), Brewers (GPP #2)
Optimal One-Offs: Cavan Biggio, Trea Turner, Harold Ramirez
Starting with the first game, Nathan Eovaldi is someone we don’t have much interest in as he has been smashed over the last 30 days holding a .142 xISO and a .347 xwOBA to lefties, and a .309 xISO and a .432 swOBA to righties making them our target here in this matchup. We also believe he will have a short leash. If he gets in any trouble he probably gets pulled pretty quickly. With his recent struggles, we would much rather stack up against him and search for upside elsewhere. For the Rays stack your top options are Randy Arozarena (.276/.426), Harold Ramirez (.240/.431), Josh Lowe (.200 xISO), Rene Pinto (.342/.350) and Isaac Paredes (.350 xwOBA). We like this 5 man stack as none of the other Rays hit his pitch types well and these guys overall should draw lower ownership in a nice matchup. For showdown we like fading Eovaldi and stacking up against him with Arozarena making for a nice GPP captain as he crushes his pitch types and carries big upside.
On the other side of this game, Zach Eflin is someone we are interested in today as he has been solid all season holding a .167 xISO and a .280 xwOBA to lefties with a .149 xISO and a .269 xwOBA to righties putting him a nice spot against this tough Rangers order. He is also holding decent K rates with a 23% K rate to lefties and a 30% K rate this season giving him nice upside against this Texas order that holds 7 bats with over a 20% K rate. He is expected to be much lower-owned than your optimal guys and makes for a nice pivot to lose some ownership. On showdown he is our optimal captain as he has a nice floor-ceiling combo in this spot. If playing bats against him, Corey Seager, Jonah Heim, and Adolis Garcia are your best options as they all hit his pitch types well and can all go yard at any time. That being said we would stick to using them just on showdown, as we like deploying Eflin on the main slate today.
Moving over to our next game, Sonny Gray will be on the bump in a matchup we like going back to as he has been solid all season holding a .102 xISO and a .291 xwOBA to lefties with a .138 xISO and a .303 xwOBA to righties. He also provides some decent K upside as he holds a 23% K rate to lefties with a 26% K rate to righties giving him solid upside as this Blue Jays order holds 6 bats with over a 20% K rate giving him plenty of opportunities to rack up Ks and mow down this Toronto order. He is expected to come in at under half the ownership of our top 2 guys and makes for a nice pivot when looking to drop some ownership and still carry upside. On showdown we believe he is your optimal captain as his floor/ceiling combo is solid and we aren’t fans of Berrios on this slate. If you need to play bats against him, Vladimir Guerrero and Matt Chapman are your best options as they both smash his pitch types and can go yard at any time, but we only like deploying them on showdown. Gray is a nice GPP play for us on the main slate and we think some of the Jays’ bats will be chalky once again, particularly in higher-stakes contests.
Moving over to the Blue Jays side, Jose Berrios is someone we don’t have much interest in as he has been susceptible this season holding a .190 xISO and a .340 xwOBA to lefties with a .165 xISO and a .312 xwOBA to righties putting him in a tough spot here as this Minnesota lineup smashes his pitch types, bringing us one of our two optimal stacks on this slate. We like fading him in the showdown and loading up on Twins bats here as a lot of them are in a great spot and we think Berrios could get rocked in this matchup. Your top bats for the Twins stack are Edouard Julien (.317/.431), Jorge Polanco (.457/.500), Max Kepler (.375/.469), Alex Kirilloff (.216/.393) and Matt Wallner (.362/.417) as they all smash his pitch types, making them one of the best stacks on the slate. Ryan Jeffers and Michael Taylor are also in play if you need the salary savings or to fill your catcher position, but we love the top 5 batters the most as they are in a great spot. They all make for solid captain options on Showdown as well. They are expected to draw some ownership, but we certainly think it’s warranted as we like them in all formats.
Moving over to our third game we find our first optimal pitcher in Freddy Peralta who has been solid this season holding a .128 xISO and a .286 xwOBA to lefties with a .163 xISO and a .283 xwOBA to righties. Freddy is also holding some nice K rates this season as he holds a 26% K rate to lefties with a massive 36% K rate to righties, which bodes well for his upside as he is expected to see 6 righties! This gives him a big opportunity to rack up Ks against this Arizona team that has 8 bats with over a 19% K rate. Peralta is projected as your 2nd highest-owned pitcher on this slate but we think it’s well worth using him as this is a great spot for him in a must-win game for the Brewers, and his K upside is unmatched on the slate. On showdown, we believe he is your clear optimal captain and we like him in all formats on the main slate as well. If you need to play against him on showdown, Tommy Pham and Evan Longoria both hit his pitch types well and are nice options.
On the other side of this game, Zac Gallen is someone we like targeting on this slate as he has been gettable this season holding a .163 xISO and a .319 xwOBA to lefties with a .184 xISO and a .314 xwOBA to righties against this tough Brewers order with quite a few guys smashing his pitch types. It is also worth noting that he has given up solid numbers off his primary pitch, the fastball to righties the season holding a .207 xISO and a .330 xwOBA off it. With that being said we think this is a nice spot to target in all formats. Your top Brewers stack options are Mark Canha (.200/.350), Willy Adames (.323/.411), Josh Donaldson (.283/.320) and Tyrone Taylor (.200/.350). After these 4 Christian Yelich and William Contreras make for nice options to round out this stack as they have solid numbers overall and can both go yard at any time. If captaining one of these guys on showdown Willy Adames is your best option as he smashes Gallen’s pitch types making for a solid lower-owned captain option. This stack will draw some ownership but should come in lower than the optimal stacks making them a nice play in GPPs.
Moving over to our last game of the day we have your other optimal pitcher Aaron Nola. He’s in a nice spot here as he holds a .165 xISO and a .298 xwOBA to lefties with a .168 xISO and a .304 xwOBA to righties this season. Nola also carries solid upside here, as he holds a 25% K rate to lefties with a 26% K rate to righties. This Miami order has 7 bats with over a 20% K rate which should give him plenty of opportunities to rack up Ks and mow down this order. We think he is your clear optimal captain on the showdown and makes for a nice play on the main slate as well. He is expected to be the highest-owned pitcher on this slate, so keep that in mind when constructing lineups around him. If you need to play against him, Jorge Soler, Josh Bell, and Jake Burger are your best options as they all hit his pitch types well and can go yard at any time.
On the other side, Braxton Garrett is someone we are not interested in today as our optimal stack is the Phillies. Garrett has been susceptible this season as he holds a .103 xISO and a .296 xwOBA to lefties but a .190 xISO and a .340 xwOBA to righties. We like fading Braxton on the main slate and showdown as we would rather load up on Your top options in the Phillies stack are Trea Turner (.351/.502), Alec Bohm (.230/.350), J.T. Realmuto (.364/.479), Nick Castellanos (.413/.462) and Cristian Pache (.542/.619). You can also include Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper as they can both go yard any time but we much prefer the righties as Garrett has struggled more to that side of the plate. On showdown, Trea Turner looks like a very nice captain as he smashes Garrett’s pitch types and carries stolen base upside as well. This stack is expected to be your highest owned stack on the main slate but we think it’s warranted as they are in a nice spot here.
Conclusion: This is a fun slate for GPPs. Our optimal pitchers in cash games are Nola and Peralta, but we like pivoting off one of them in GPPs to play Sonny Gray at lower ownership. The Phillies and Twins are your top stacks in optimal lineups, but we probably wouldn’t stack them both in a GPP lineup. Using some Rays and Brewers bats would make more sense, with the full Rays stack being our favorite GPP move.