Just a week after the Ryder Cup, we are back in action at the Sanderson Farms Open! The tour returns to Bermuda grass greens with a full field of 144 players. The course is set up to give an advantage to those long hitters as well as the guys who are great with their irons with the smaller greens. This tournament has been known to provide us with some first time winners on tour as we see a lot of the young guys tee it up.
When looking to build your lineups this week there are only four guys priced over $10,000 on DK. From what we see, Aberg seems to be the chalk up top, one week after helping Europe win the Ryder Cup. Although he does rate out decently this week and project the best, Eric Cole actually comes out ranked higher in our course fit models and is expected to be lower owned. We last saw Cole at the Fortinet Championship last month where he was playing some great golf, picking up 12.2 strokes on the field including 6.2 on approach. Over his last 24 rounds played he ranks 1st in BoB, 5th in App, and 23rd in BS. With plenty of value this week it’s not an issue at all going with one of the top guys. We love targeting Cole and taking the chance that Aberg is not as fresh one week off a very emotional victory in Rome.
Given how much value there is to like on this slate, we feel like you are able to double dip up top in GPPs. If you do this, the primary second guy that we like at the top end will be Stephan Jaeger, who ranks top-10 amongst the field in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and Birdie or Better Gained. He is also top-25 in Strokes Gained Approach and Around the Green, along with Opportunities Gained. Jaeger has shown the ability to contend, and has been very steady making thirteen straight cuts and racking up four top-20s in his last six tournaments. Given his awesome ball striking, Jaeger would be a great second option into your lineups.
If you are looking to take on a bit more risk in GPPs, one guy that could pan out is Keith Mitchell. Mitchell makes for a very strong course fit, but has a lower floor than the options like Cole and Jaeger. Mitchell bombs the ball off the tee, ranking 12th in the field in Driving Distance, and he also makes his dough on the greens ranking 12th in Strokes Gained Putting. These are two of the biggest factors for us on this course. He is top-25 in Opportunities Gained, and has shown some form with four made cuts in his last five events. If he can find the irons this week, Mitchell is prime to contend based on his skillset. Just know that this comes with some risk, as his irons have been spotty dating back to June. Some time off may have been just what he needed to fix that, though.
Dylan Wu is another guy who based on the strength of the field and his recent form, feels underpriced. Wu comes in at only $7,600 and is coming off three straight made cuts including a 5th at the 3M and 14th at the Fortinet. Wu has been putting lights out of late, ranking 1st in the field to go along with 22nd in BoB. He has been pretty good in Approach too, gaining strokes in his last three events. Wu feels far too cheap for the upside that he can carry in this field, and we are locking him in with confidence
When you look at the $8k range on DK, Sam Ryder is one guy that sticks out above some of the rest as a good GPP play. He has been lights out with his irons, ranking 2nd in the field in approach over the last 24 rounds. He has been able to capitalize on turning those approaches into birdies ranking 13th in BoB gained. Ryder has some familiarity with the course, making the last two cuts here. Although he only finished 51st and 45th, he picked up strokes on the field in Approach but struggled OTT. With his OTT game being in a better place now, we expect some big things out of him this week and could see him make a run come Sunday afternoon. If you wanted to look at a more balanced style build, one guy in this range that our team also likes is Alex Smalley. Smalley ranks top-2 amongst the field in Strokes Gained Approach and Tee to Green, along with Opportunities Gained. He is also top-25 in Birdie or Better Gained and Proximity from 100-125 yards. He really struggled the last two events of the season, but we expect him to bounce back in a big way, as he has been able to pop in these weaker field events.
One value guy that our team really has our eyes on this week is rookie Peter Kuest. Kuest has flashed the elite upside he can carry, and grades very well for us this week as he ranks first in the field in driving Distance, along with top-25 in Birdie or Better Gained, Proximity from 100-125 yards, and Strokes Gained Putting. He did miss the cut at the Fortinet, but this was primarily due to the putter, which we would expect to bounce back this week as he has not lost strokes on the greens in back to back starts yet since playing more events on tour. He has made six of eight cuts dating back to the Byron Nelson, and makes for an awesome value target on this slate with his upside.
If you wanted to take the stars and scrubs approach, a few other value plays that grade well in our models are Nate Lashley, Kevin Yu, Will Hordon, and Nick Hardy.
Good luck and I’m thinking we’re gonna have ourselves a big week!