Pitchers: Dylan Cease (Optimal #1), George Kirby (Optimal #2), Jordan Hicks (Optimal #3),
Ranger Suarez (GPP #1), Carlos Rodon (GPP #2)
Hitting: MIN (Optimal #1), NYY (Optimal #2), ATL (GPP #1), SEA (GPP #2), LAA (GPP #3)
Bad Chalk: Jose Soriano
Weather: TB/CWS
We have a juicy slate on our hands with plenty of pitching options to choose from and some interesting batting stacks to target on this slate. Let’s get right into it as we dive into the pitchers first.
Our first optimal pitcher today is Dylan Cease who is pitching against the Phillies today. So far on the season, Cease holds an insane 37% K rate to RHH and 24% to LHH which is spectacular. He has pretty much been untouchable against RHH as no one can hit his fastball or slider. The one pitch that gives Cease some trouble at times is the fastball (.335 xISO/.437 xwOBA) to LHH. Luckily for Cease, there are only two hitters that have feasted off that pitch this season which are Kyle Schwarber (.421/.405) and Brandon Marsh (.420/.467). If Cease can get through those two batters, he could be looking at another great day against a team that brings 6 guys with K rates over 20% to the plate. Lock in Cease in all formats today.
Our next optimal pitcher comes in Seattle with George Kirby. In the young season, Kirby holds K rates of 24% to LHH and 22% to RHH. Kirby has done a great job of holding batters in check. The one pitch that has given him trouble this year has been the fastball (.262xISO) to RHH. Luckily for Kirby, no hitter in this lineup has an xISO higher than .181 which bodes well for him getting through this lineup with ease. There are only 4 players with K rates above 20%, but with a weak lineup like this one, Kirby has the upside to go for 6+ innings. This definitely feels like a safe spot to target a reliable pitcher in Kirby as this D-Backs lineup has been inconsistent to start the season.
Our third optimal pitcher is the hard-throwing Jordan Hicks who has done a pleasant job transitioning to a full-time starter. The K rates are on the lower end with 14% to LHH and 19% to RHH, but Hicks has phenomenal X stats against both sides of the plate. He has virtually been unhittable this year as he holds xISO’s under .120 to both sides of the plate which makes him a great value play here against the Pirates. While the K rates may be on the lower end, he has the luxury of facing 7 batters with K rates over 18% so he can easily find the upside to grab some K’s here in this spot.
Now we move on to some GPP pitchers, with our first pitcher being Ranger Suarez who is taking on the San Diego Padres. On the season, Suarez has solid K rates of 30% to LHH and 26% to RHH. The reason Suarez is a solid GPP play is that he has been unhittable this season against RHH, sporting no higher than a 0.076 xISO on any of his pitches. Not only that, but the Padres are sending out 8 right-handed batters against Suarez playing right into his strength. His one “bad” pitch is the sinker (.162 xISO) against lefties but Cronenworth is the only lefty in this lineup and he has a putrid (.056 xISO). This is a solid spot to target a pitcher in Suarez who is going to get overlooked and bring some low ownership today on the slate.
Our last GPP pitcher to touch on is Carlos Rodon who has surprisingly had himself a nice start to the season and now gets to face the Milwaukee Brewers. He holds an 18% K rate to RHH and a 22% K rate to LHH. The one pitch that gives him trouble is the fastball (.197 xISO/.324 xwOBA) to RHH. Luckily for Rodon, this Brewers lineup only has 2 RHH with any noteworthy numbers against the fastball in William Contreras (.445 xwOBA) and Rhys Hoskins (.503 xwOBA). Another thing that bodes well for Rodon is that this lineup features 7 hitters with K rates over 22% against left-handed pitching. All this becomes a recipe for success for Carlos Rodon as he looks to continue his bounce-back season in 2024.
Now we transition into the bats as our bad chalk also goes hand in hand with our first optimal stack in the Minnesota Twins who are taking on Jose Soriano of the Angels. The one pitch that Soriano struggles with is the fastball (.508 xISO/.531 xWOBA) and the Twins have some lefty mashers that can crush that pitch. Alex Kirilloff (.257/.389), Edouard Julien (.374/.389), Trevor Larnach (1.093/.928), Max Kepler (.434xwOBA), and Willie Castro (.350xwOBA) are some players that crush the fastball. Ryan Jeffers also crushes the fastball (.279/.395) so he is viable if looking to fit him into your stacks/builds. Overall this team is a solid place to start in lineup building as we target bad chalk in Jose Soriano.
Our next optimal stack is the New York Yankees who are taking on Joe Ross. The sinker and the slider are the two main pitches Ross throws to both sides of the plate. In terms of the sinker, Juan Soto (.386/.560), Aaron Judge (.226xISO), Giancarlo Stanton (.994/.737), Gleyber Torres (.322 xwOBA), and Alex Verdugo (.374 xwOBA) hit that pitch well. In terms of the slider, Anthony Volpe (.325 xwOBA), Soto (.196/.331), Judge (.183/.347), Stanton (.248/.387), and Austin Wells (.723/.601) all hit that pitch well. This makes for a solid team to stack in all formats as they have a variety of hitters that can take advantage of Joe Ross.
Now we move on to some GPP stacks where we begin with the Atlanta Braves who are taking on Tanner Bibee. On the season, Bibee has two pitches that have given him trouble, which are the sliders (.280 xISO/.367 xwOBA) to RHH and the fastball (.307 xISO/.474 xwOBA) to LHH. Acuña doesn’t have eye-popping numbers to the slider (.151/.304) but he has an insane BAPIP of .750 which means he has gotten really unlucky with that pitch. Perhaps his luck turns around today and he can get the numbers to go his way. Austin Riley (.350/.423), Marcell Ozuna (.537/.568), and Travis D’Arnaud (.228 xISO) are some of the RHH that hit the slider well. In terms of the lefties who crush the fastball, Ozzie Albies (.354/.480), Matt Olson (.412/.513), Michael Harris (.392 xwOBA), and Jarred Kelenic (.341 xwOBA) all see that pitch well. They are always going to be on the expensive end but the Braves make for a solid stack today for GPPs.
Our next GPP stack is the Seattle Mariners who are taking on Slade Cecconi. It is a very limited sample size, but Slade’s fastball (1.937 xISO/1.493 xwOBA) is getting POUNDED by LHH. Josh Rojas (.264/.353), Cal Raleigh (.247/.399), and Jorge Polanco (.206/.307) all hit that pitch pretty well. In terms of RHH, the slider (.187xISO) is the pitch that gives Cecconi the most trouble. Julio Rodriguez (.195/.431) and Ty France (.335/.351) do damage to that pitch the most. While Slade has really good numbers with the fastball to RHH, it is still a limited sample size so Mitch Haniger (.328/.322) is another player that is viable in this stack.
The last GPP stack to touch on is the Los Angeles Angels who are taking on Chris Paddack. Paddack did well in his last start but he is usually a gas can who should return to form now that he isn’t facing the White Sox. The pitch that gives Paddack the most trouble is the changeup to both sides of the plate. To LHH it gets hit to the tune of (.313 xISO/.418 xwOBA) and to RHH it gets hit to the tune of (.350 xISO/.376 xwOBA). Mike Trout (.251/.306), Nolan Schanuel (.323 xwOBA), and Taylor Ward (.351 xwOBA) hit that pitch well. Zach Neto hits the slider (.209 xISO) well which is another pitch Paddack struggles with. Lastly, Jo Adell (.277/.432) and Logan O’ Hoppe (.178/.363) are also viable in Angel stacks as they have hit right-handed pitching well this season.