Dominators: Byron, Hamlin, Blaney, Busch, Reddick (GPP)
Hybrid: Larson, Truex, Chastain
Place Differential: Elliott, Bell, Suarez, Keselowski (GPP), Buescher (GPP)
Value: Smith, Heim
*Would build with a minimum of two dominators/hybrid*
Dover aka the Monster Mile is a pretty unique track on the schedule as it’s 1 of 3 concrete tracks NASCAR still visits. Nashville is a flatter track and races like a intermediate, and Bristol…well is Bristol. Dover is steep though not as steep as Bristol and does share a few characteristics, but generally it’s hard to compare it. Dover also causes tire wear which we saw in practice and temps for today are going to be much warmer, which will provide some changes to the way the car drove and handles compared to practice. With all that being said….let’s dive in!
Due to starting spots of some big name drivers, it’s gonna be very easy to get wrapped up in PD today. However this is a 400 mile race on a 1 mile track which gives us a ton of dominator points up for grabs. You are gonna want at least 2 Doms this week to put in with all the PD guys. Our top pick for a dominator is no surprise, it’s the hottest driver in the sport right now, big Willy B. William Byron was 2nd in the 5 lap, 1st in the 10 and 1st in the 15. He starts 3rd and looked to have (at worst) a top 2 car in practice. He doesn’t have any PD upside but we wouldn’t be surprised to see him get to the front from the beginning and stay near there all day. He will be pretty popular however with the way he is driving this year it would be foolish to fade him completely, just get different in your PD plays.
You can copy and paste everything I just said and use it for Denny Hamlin as well. Denny was 4th in the 5 lap and 2nd in the 10. These two guys have been the class of the field so far this season and it doesn’t look to be any different today. He starts 6th so again no PD but barring a mechanical or driver malfunction, we expect him to be up there all day. Playing both would be very expensive and you give up a lot of opportunity cost in the PD department. However, we would recommend at least one of these two most of your lines today.
Kyle Busch shocked everybody and got the pole again today. He also got the pole here last year when qualifying was rained out. He only showed 11th fastest in the 5 lap average in practice. Rowdy and RCR just haven’t shown the speed this year to make us think he can legitimately dominate today. Plus he has had major troubles on pit road this year, partly due to him not being able to learn the speed limit and partly due to his crew. He did say the team came to the track with a whole new set up this week they were excited about, and you can never completely rule out a Rowdy day, however it seems unlikely and best left for GPPs.
Ryan Blaney typically hasn’t had his best results at Dover however last year he started in 3rd and stayed in the top 5 pretty much all day. He could lead some early however we think it’s most likely he falls back just a little and runs 5-10th most of the day.
The last guy to consider up front is Tyler Reddick. Reddick could be sneaky in GPPs, and he has been one of the best drivers this season. He is way too cheap, and has dominator potential. He is a tough click in single entry formats, but we like getting some exposure to him in MME formats. He is good on steep tracks and we expect him to run up near the front today.
Two guys we really like today are Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. Both of the drivers are expensive and start mid-pack. They don’t offer the same PD upside of some of the other options starting further back, but they offer more than our other Doms and thus have a much higher floor. We also think both of these guys could get up front and be Doms today. As I mentioned earlier the temp difference today is massive and for veteran guys like this you can almost throw out practice times. Both of these drivers have great history here and should be considered for the win. If you believe in narratives, Truex’s brother won here yesterday and last time he did, Truex won and the brothers swept the weekend. Larson seemed to have the best car here last year until he was caught up in another Chastain incident. Again, we don’t project these guys for low ownership but it could be lower than everyone thinks with the PD upside of the other guys being just too tempting.
Another guy that fits in this “hybrid” category is Ross Chastain. Chastain ranks first in average speed over the last two races here. Some may be turned away by his long run speed, but he ran that long run on old tires, so you can throw that completely out the window. Chastain has a massive ceiling, and is fully in play in all formats.
Moving onto place differential, we have two stud drivers starting in the rear of the field. Chase Elliott will roll off 29th, and Christopher Bell will start 33rd. Usually we would look over these guys in GPPs, and prioritize expensive Doms. However, with so many unknowns this week due to varying track conditions, it would not be a shock to see these two cars compete for the win. Both of them have been good here at Dover in the next-gen era, and we love them today. We expect Elliott to come in slightly lower owned than Bell, giving him the slight edge in GPPs.
Our favorite cheap option is Daniel Suarez. Suarez did not have great speed, but once again we are not factoring in practice times as much as we usually would. We now can get Suarez at a super cheap price tag starting 31st, at one of his best tracks on the circuit. Suarez is not going to be sneaky, but is a great play in all formats.
There are a couple guys that intrigue us in GPPs, and they just happen to be teammates. The RFK Racing duo of Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher have been ELITE on steep tracks in the next-gen era. They are at both a middling price point and starting position, which will keep their ownerships in check. We project both of them inside the top 10 in terms of pt/$, and no one seems to be touting them. One of these drivers could be a difference maker in your GPP lineups and potentially lead to takedowns!
Lastly, we want to include a value section. With so many great expensive drivers to choose from today, we may need a value punt to finish our lines. Luckily for us, we have a couple guys that peak our interest. Zane Smith wrecked in practice but the team does not seem to be worried about it and say they got it fixed. Zane had decent speed before his issues and he could move up in this race. Corey Heim is filling in for Erik Jones this weekend and we like him as well. Heim is a very talented young driver who has a good history on steep tracks. He is a past truck series winner at Bristol which is comparable to Dover. In the Xfinity series, Heim has two DNFs on his record at Dover, which may steer people off of him. We love Heim today to save some salary!