Pitching: Gore (#1 Optimal), Peterson (#2 Optimal), Brown (#3 Optimal), Wilson (GPP)
Hitting: MIL (Optimal), TOR (#1 GPP), NYM (#2 GPP)
Bad Chalk: COL
Weather: All clear!
Today we have what feels like a playoff slate in the middle of the summer, as we’ve got three staggered games. This is fun because it allows us to focus on every AB, and make swaps as needed between games. We like to make a contrarian move in the early game when possible. Then, if it goes well, we can play the late chalk, and if it goes poorly, we can make more swaps to get contrarian.
Ownership on this slate will play out quite differently depending on the contest entry fee. The higher the stakes, the chalkier Coors Field will be. People are less and less willing to fade the high team totals in Coors, the more money they have on the line. So in smaller entry contests, we’d be more inclined to play the optimal Brewers stacks, whereas in high stakes, we may chase a lower-owned stack.
Starting on the mound, there is a core group of three options that all are projected to split ownership relatively evenly. The first of this group is MacKenzie Gore, who is facing off with the New York Mets. Gore is in a strong spot here as he prepares to take on a Mets team that is projected to start eight righties and just one lefty against him. That materially matters as Gore holds a 22.1% K rate to lefties and a 27.7% K rate against righties on the season. He also has not flashed any real splits to speak of in the X stat department as lefties hold a .125 xISO/.319 xwOBA against him with righties sitting at .121/.306 themselves. He did just get hit around by the Padres in his last start, but this is a strong spot for him to bounce back. He has thrown 92+ pitches in each of his last 9 starts, which gives him a very strong workload to build off of as well. With all of this being said, he did struggle in his only start against the Mets this season and gave up 6 runs on 7 hits. He throws his fastball to righties over 55% of the time and the Mets do hammer lefty fastballs. Lindor (.394/.460), Nimmo (.247/.467), Martinez (.478/.535), Alonso (.352/.407), Alvarez (.289/.398), Vientos (.435/.520), and Bader (.245/.357) all crush the pitch and can be considered as a GPP stack on this slate if you are not playing Gore.
One of our favorite arms on the slate is David Peterson of the New York Mets. He is opposing Gore on the opposite side of this same game and grades out as one of the top values on both sites on a point-per-dollar basis. After a really strange start to the season that saw him incapable of striking anybody out, the Ks have returned in bunches over his last two starts, accumulating a combined 14 against the Rangers and the Yankees. The Nationals are not either of those teams and this is a spot for him to keep the good vibes rolling. The great news for Peterson is that he is at full strength as he now has thrown 100+ pitches in each of his last two starts. We think the strikeouts are believable as he had fanned 29.9% of lefties and 24.8% of righties last season so the rates are starting to normalize for him this season. We still think he is priced at a bit of a discount given the earlier season struggles and that he would be more expensive had we not seen those. Ironically, one of his “better” starts in his poor three-start stretch at the start of his season came against this Nationals team. He only fanned two but was able to mitigate the damage and post 13.6 fantasy points. That matters a ton because if he can marry the Ks with the same damage prevention, he would be in store for a huge outing. He is projected for the least ownership of the three arms, which makes us like him all the more.
The third optimal arm is our least favorite of the bunch, and that would be Hunter Brown. The story with Brown is very well-documented by this point. He got off to a putrid start to the season and was getting annihilated by everybody that he faced. However, he has been dominating of late and has K rates of around 30% over the last thirty days. He now has posted 23+ fantasy points in five of his last six outings and is going up against a Toronto offense that has been cooking of late. As we dug into the most recent stretch for Brown, we noticed that the offenses that he has been dominating are not exactly the cream of the crop in the MLB. Mixed into this stretch have been starts against the Rockies (away from Coors), White Sox, Tigers, Angels (twice), and Seattle (who cannot stop striking out to save their lives). Obviously, you can only play the teams that have been put in front of you and Brown has excelled. However, it is entirely possible that he will revert to his early-season form once he goes up against a competent team like Toronto. Our projections love the upside of some of the Jays bats and they are projected to be exceptionally low-owned in this spot due to how much ownership Brown is projected to carry. If we look at Brown’s season in totality, he still has allowed righties to hammer his fastball with a .199 xISO against it despite how dominating he has been. That makes bats like Bichette, Guerrero, Turner, Springer, Schneider, Kirk, and Kiner-Falefa very strong options. A number of them grade amongst the top value bats on the slate and we would use the projections to help prioritize accordingly.
The final arm to call out is Bryse Wilson. He is our top GPP target on this slate as he prepares to go up against the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field in the nightcap of this three-game slate. He is the only one outside of the core group of three that is truly playable as both Rodriguez and Gomber are completely useless in their respective spots. However, we actually have hopes of a solid outing from Wilson here. Bryse has really only been tagged by lefties that can hit the fastball (.265/.381) and sinker (.207/.391) this season. He has been very solid against righties, holding them to a .140/.302 line overall. His K rates are nothing special, but they are not egregiously bad at 20.4% to lefties and 17.9% to righties. The Rockies only have two lefties that pose him any danger, McMahon and Toglia. If he can navigate around those two and not let them tank him, this is a spot where he could and should post a respectable score. He has now posted 23+ fantasy points in two of his last three starts, both of which came against solid offenses in the Rangers and Reds. He is the cheapest pitcher on the slate and grades out as one of the best point-per-dollar options on both sites. You really only need 10-12 from him as long as the other arms on the slate don’t go bonkers. Your best bet is to pair one of Gore/Peterson with Wilson in our opinion for GPPs.
In terms of the bats on the slate, the overwhelming chalk will be the Milwaukee Brewers. They get to face Austin Gomber in Coors Field in what amounts to a smash matchup for the Brew Crew. Gomber has allowed lefties to hold a .377/.401 line off his heater and righties to hold a .246/.399 line off the pitch. Pretty much anybody that can hammer a fastball is in play. Bats like Contreras (.226/.401), Yelich (.287/.428), Hoskins (.382/.451), and Monasterio (.358 xwOBA) are the best ones to target here. Options like Ortiz (.052/.282), Chourio (.071/.238) and Adames (.089/.297) all have horrid X stats against lefty fastballs and are projected as mega-chalk on the slate. Our ideal approach to this slate in GPPs is to play some of the better-looking Brewers bats and mix in the Jays/Mets bats that fit the best around them. By doing so, you will get different from the field. Best of luck tonight!