Pitching: Pfaadt (#1 Optimal), Ryan (#2 Optimal), Mize (#1 GPP), Bivens (#2 GPP)
Hitting: LAD mini-stack (#1 Optimal), ARI (#2 Optimal), MIN (#1 GPP), DET (#2 GPP)
Bad Chalk: LAD (the guys not in the mini-stack), Castillo
Weather: All Clear!
With weather impacting the Sunday Night Baseball game, we have pivoted to covering the four-game afternoon slate for you this week. It is a very interesting slate to break down and there are some good angles to attack as a result. Let’s dive in!
This slate has an exceptionally clear-cut three optimal arms to choose from. If you deviate from any of these three, you will be getting exceptionally different on the mound. The first of these arms is Brandon Pfaadt. Brandon has a very strong matchup against the Oakland A’s this evening and projects as the best point-per-dollar option on both sites. The K upside for Brandon is quite good here as he is projected to see six righties in this spot. Lefties have a 16.3% K rate against him but righties strike out at a 26.6% clip. Righties also have been held to a .128/.254 line this season as well. If deciding between the optimal arms, he is our favorite of the bunch and we would prefer to get different elsewhere. He is a very tough fade in all formats.
The second optimal arm on this slate is Joe Ryan. Joe is going up against the Seattle Mariners, who are one of the best offenses to attack if you are a right-handed pitcher. They have the highest K rate in the league against righties and consistently make mediocre pitchers look like stars. Ryan has K rates of 24.5% and 27.7% to lefties and righties respectively. His one bugaboo is a penchant to give up homers and the Mariners are capable of obliging. Righties have a .215 xISO off his heater so bats like Garver, Moore, and Rodriguez could easily chip in here. Even if he does give up a couple, the K upside against this Mariners offense is really hard to ignore and should sustain him. He does have a track record of being flaming garbage when he is a chalk arm though, so if you do want to get different, he is probably your man.
Luis Castillo is pitching for the Mariners against Minnesota and is the third arm projected to carry heavy ownership on this slate. We are not keen on his upside as he has some alarming X stats that pop out against this Twins squad. Lefties have a .223 xISO/.337 xwOBA off his heater and a .263/.427 line off his changeup. They are loaded with options to consider like Castro (.246/.394), Larnach (.435/.523), Santana (.206/.379), and Kepler (.356/.440). He also features his fastball 45% of the time to righties. While he has held them to a .148/.248 line against the pitch this season, the Twins have a number of righties that crush the heater as well including Miranda (.224/.420), Correa (.215/.388), Buxton (.399/.447), and Jeffers (.215/.378). We would obviously focus on the lefties here and mix in a righty or two. Regardless, Castillo does not look like good chalk in this spot.
Casey Mize stands out as one of our top GPP arms on this slate if you do want to try to differentiate outside of the Pfaadt/Ryan pairing. He doesn’t have a ton of K upside as he has fanned just 15.1% of righties and 19% to righties. With that being said, the Angels are one of the weaker offenses in the league right now and we have seen 18 fantasy point performances from Mize in two of his last three starts. The one way to damage him this season has been with lefties against his heater. They have a .228/.361 line against it while righties have a meager .132/.331 line against him overall. Of the four lefties he will see, none of them have greater than a .193 xISO, and three of the four have .138 xISOs or worse against the fastball. He grades out as one of the best point-per-dollar options on both sites as a result and makes for a solid GPP pivot.
Our final GPP arm is a pure punt play at best. I mean this is really GPP. However, he does grade out as one of the best point-per-dollar options on the slate, and that’s Spencer Bivens. Bivens is getting the start against the Los Angeles Dodgers in a spot where he could get bombed. We are expected to see 40-50 pitches from Bivens this afternoon and he is priced at the minimum. Lefties have a .536/.500 line off his sinker and righties have a .228/.391 line against it. With that being said, day-game Shohei Ohtani (.265/.495) makes for a very strong one-off against him. However, outside of Ohtani, only Teoscar Hernandez has strong numbers against the sinker (.204/.386). With Roupp projected to follow Bivens and also a heavy sinker-baller, this is not a spot where we love anybody outside of the mini-stack. You could throw Freeman and his mediocre numbers (.122/.329) against the sinker into the stack as well, but that is a ton of capital to invest in a poor spot. If you get 10 out of Bivens, you could be cooking on this slate and you easily can stack Ohtani against him if you want to.
Turning to the bats, the Arizona Diamondbacks grade out as the top optimal stack outside of the Dodgers. They are going up against the Oakland A’s and Luis Medina this afternoon. Medina has been quite bad this season, particularly against lefties who have a .242/.359 line off of his fastball. As a result, we love bats like Marte (.207/.387), Pederson (.195/.337), McCarthy (.235/.405), and Barnhart (.364 xwOBA). Corbin Caroll is also quite viable despite his poor X stats due to Medina’s high BB totals. He easily could get on base and swipe 2 bags in this one to add to the tally. In optimal lineups, the Diamondbacks are the top dogs to turn to as a result.
In GPPs, we also like the Detroit Tigers alongside the Twins, who look to be in an elite spot as mentioned above. The Tigers are facing Tyler Anderson and the Angels. Anderson has been horrid this season with lefties holding a .369/.429 line off his heater and righties holding a .278/.390 line themselves. The Tigers are starting eight righties against him, many of whom crush lefty fastballs. Ibanez (.218 xISO), Canha (.234/.419), Greene (.413/.465), Rogers (.480/.462), Kelly (.495 xwOBA), Perez (.250/.419), and Malloy (.710 xwOBA in 3 ABs) all look like stellar options in this spot to slam Anderson to the curb. Best of luck this afternoon!