Pitchers: Sale (#1 Optimal), Snell (#2 Optimal), Gil (#1 GPP), Pfaadt (#2 GPP), Kershaw (#3 GPP)
Hitters: NYY (Optimal Cash Chalk), LAD (#1 GPP), LAA (#2 GPP), ARI (#3 GPP), MIN (#4 GPP)
Bad Chalk: TOR
Weather: Mostly clear, TEX @ BOS may start a tad late but does not look like an in game delay or PPD risk
Chris Sale is your number 1 optimal pitching option tonight as he is set to face the San Francisco Giants. Sale is coming off two of his worst starts of the year, but both were against a hot Brewers squad and may have just been a bad matchup for him. In this matchup, just a month ago, Sale shut down the Giants fanning 9 across 6 innings of work. He comes into this one with elite strikeout rates to both sides, getting LHH 37% of the time and RHH 32% of the time. His X stats are equally impressive holding LHH to a .082/.227 line while allowing .114/.263 to RHH. Sale is expensive, but still grades as one of the top point/$ pitching options on the slate and has the highest raw projection of any pitcher by a decent margin. He will be chalky on both sites, but for good reason. In GPPs, he is worth a fade just given his high ownership and could run into some issues with guys like Fitzgerald (.251/.372), Ramos (.430/.488), and Chapman (.211/.384) who have excellent X stats against LHP this season.
Your next optimal option comes from the same game and may be one of the hottest pitchers in all of baseball right now. In his last 3 starts, Blake Snell has put up DK scores of 25, 54, and 41 including a complete game no-hitter just 2 starts ago. Since returning, Snell has had fantastic strikeout rates to both sides, getting RHH 30% of the time and LHH 39% of the time. He has also kept both sides of the plate to xwOBAs under .265. He gets a tough matchup with the Atlanta Braves this evening, but we have seen the Braves no-show plenty of times this season, especially when facing an elite arm like Snell. They are projected to send 7 batters to the plate that strike out 20% or more against LHP. The righty trio of Soler (.210/.354), Riley (.249/.374), and Ozuna (.291/.419) will be tough to navigate, but Snell has actually been better against RHH this season holding them to an xISO of .109. Over the last 30 days, he has truly dominated RHH, striking them out 38% of the time and holding them to a .081/.191 line. Snell is right alongside Sale in terms of point/$, but will be slightly lower owned of the 2. Snell is very intriguing on FD where he is $1k less than Sale and lower owned.
Your top GPP arm tonight is New York Yankees’ right-hander Luis Gil. Gil was absolutely dominant to start the year but hit a bit of a rough patch towards the end of June. Since then, he has turned things back around and has quietly been one of the more consistent arms in all of baseball. In his last 5 starts, he has topped 20 DK points in 4 of them, with his lowest-scoring start still coming in at a respectable 17 points. He has not flashed the same upside he did earlier this year, with his highest score during that stretch at 28 points, but has shown a very consistent floor. Tonight, he has an opportunity to flash that nearly 40-point upside he had in May as he is set to face the worst team in baseball, the Chicago White Sox. Gil has dominated RHH this season striking them out 31% of the time and holding them to a line of .106/.262. Against LHH, the X stats are not as good, but he has still struck them out 26% of the time. On DK, Gil is right up there in terms of point/$, but looks to be the 4th most popular option behind Sale, Snell, and Pfaadt. On FD, he is priced up a bit more and as a result will see ownership in the low teens.
Your next GPP pitching option this evening is Arizona Diamondbacks’ right-hander Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt is coming off of a solid 6-inning, 6-strikeout performance as he picked up the win against one of the best teams in baseball, the Cleveland Guardians. Pfaadt has scored 20 or more DK points in 3 of his last 5 starts and has flashed close to 30 30-point upside in a few outings this season. He has been masterful against RHH striking them out 28% of the time, holding them to a line of .128/.244. Against LHH, his X stats have not been as good, but he has still held them to an xISO under .155 and is striking them out 17% of the time. Tonight he faces a Colorado Rockies squad that strikes out more than just about anyone in all of baseball. Every single Rockie projected to be in the lineup this evening strikes out 19% of the time or more against RHP. On DK, Pfaadt is equal to Sale and Snell in terms of point/$, but will be the lowest owned of the 3. On FD, he is your top point/$ option and projecting for ownership in the teens,
Your final GPP pitching option for this slate is Los Angeles Dodgers’ veteran left-hander Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw is set to make his 4th start of the season as he continues to ease back from injury. Kershaw has yet to make it into the 5th inning of any of his first 3 starts but has seen the pitch count creep up in each, throwing 83 pitches in his most recent start. In that start, despite going just 4.2 innings, we saw flashes of the Kershaw of old as he fanned 5 Phillies and allowed them just 1 earned run. There is some risk involved with how deep Kershaw can go in this one, but based on how he looked last time out, we are hopeful that he continues to stretch out his pitch count and hopefully is allowed to get up into the 90s. If he can do that, he can more than pay off his reduced price tag at just $7.7k on DK and $8k on FD. He will face a red hot Brewers team tonight, but one that has seen its woes against LHP this season. Kershaw has continued to feature his trademark slider over 40% of the time to both sides of the plate, and only Adames (.268) has an xISO above .100 against the pitch from lefties this season. It is a small sample, but it seems like most of the Brewers’ bats have whiffed on that pitch quite a bit. Kershaw is right up there with the other top options in terms of point/% on both sites but is looking at single-digit ownership on FD and low teens on DK. This may be the perfect spot to buy low on a discounted Clayton Kershaw.
Your optimal stack tonight is the New York Yankees, who look like they are going to be big-time chalk on this 8 game slate. They have the highest run total projection of any team tonight as they face Chicago White Sox left-hander Ky Bush. The other reason the Yankees are seeing such inflated ownership is because of their pricing, especially on Fanduel. Judge and Soto are priced up, but after that, you can get some serious discounts with players like Torres, Stanton, and Verdugo. Torres and Stanton in particular are $2.6k and $2.9k respectively and grade out as two of the highest point/$ plays we have seen all year. In cash and high-stakes contests on FD, these 5 will be very popular tonight and frankly are a pretty tough fade given their upside. Of the group, we really only like Judge, Soto, Stanton, and Torres. After those 4 guys, none of the other Yankees really jump out as good plays, but they will likely still see some significant ownership as people round out their stacks. On DK it is not quite as easy to roster both Judge and Soto due to their prices. Judge looks to be projecting for more ownership despite being the more expensive option. Soto has phenomenal stats against the left on left fastball, a pitch he has hit a HR on 6 times this year in a pretty limited sample, leading to an astounding .828 xISO against the pitch. Our lean would be Soto by a hair given the discount and ownership. The top point/$ options on DK are LeMahieu, Torres, Verdugo, and Stanton. Volpe looks like an interesting pivot off of a much chalkier Torres at about the same price. Torres projects better by a point but is expected to see double the ownership.
Now when a team is set to be this chalky, we always try to poke holes in them to see if there is a way around them in tournaments. We have some intriguing GPP stacking pivots that we will get to, but first let’s take a deeper look at the matchup: Ky Bush is the White Sox #17th ranked prospect, making the second start of his career. In his debut, he struggled a bit against Oakland allowing 3 earned runs, across 4 innings, striking out 3. His biggest issue was his control, surrendering 5 walks to the Athletics, he did not allow a HR. Prior to getting called up, Bush had put together a very solid season at AA across 14 starts with an ERA of just 2.12 and a WHIP of 1.03 keeping his walk rate below 3.5/9. In total, he threw 80.2 innings averaging almost 1 strikeout per inning. He allowed just 6 home runs in that span. Unfortunately, Bush did not carry that success over to a brief stint in AAA before getting the call as he was lit up in a small 2 start, 4 appearance sample where the control really started to become an issue for him, walking 10 in 19 innings of work. He also allowed 3 HR during that span. Bush relies on a heavy two-pitch mix of fastball/slider and mixes in a changeup from time to time, especially against RHH. Soto has elite x stats against all 3 from lefties. Despite mashing the fastball, Judge has struggled with off-speed pitches from the left side, swinging and missing 40% of the time against them. Stanton also has great numbers against lefty fastballs but has struggled against the off-speed, swinging and missing about 30% of the time. After that, the numbers against lefties for guys like Verdugo, LeMahieu, Volpe, and Chisholm have actually been quite poor. Torres is pretty average across the board but has been trending in the right direction. Overall, the Yankees look great, but we wanted to provide insight on the possible paths of failure given how popular they will be.
If we want to work around the Yankees this evening, we are going to need to target some bats with similar slate-breaking upside. Tonight that would be none other than the Los Angeles Dodgers. First off, whenever you can get the Dodgers a low ownership they make for a fantastic GPP play. Tonight, with the combination of the Yankees projecting as good as they do and the fact that the Dodgers will be facing Freddy Peralta, that is exactly what we have. Peralta has scuffled a bit in his last couple of starts and the Dodgers will be looking to continue that trend. The interesting piece with Peralta is that he is actually pretty solid against LHH and has been getting tattooed by RHH of late. Over the last 30 days, RHH owns an xISO of .248 against Peralta. T. Hernandez (.220/.333) hits from the right side and has done damage to RHP this season and Smith (.216 xISO) has mashed righty fastballs, a pitch Peralta throws over 50% of the time to RHH. The Dodgers are also set to welcome back one of the best right-handed hitters in all of baseball as Mookie Betts is set to return from the IL for tonight’s matchup. While Peralta has been solid against LHH, he is set to face two of the best tonight and both Ohtani (.380/.366) and Freeman (.210/.392) have excellent numbers against RHP and righty fastballs. We do not have much love for the Dodgers’ value pieces tonight, but their 5 studs make for excellent pivot options off the chalkier Yankees.
Your next GPP stacking option is the Los Angeles Angels. They are a great value pivot off the much chalkier option, the Toronto Blue Jays. Guys like Springer, Kirk, Varsho, Loperfido, and Horwitz are really popping as top point/$ plays tonight because of how cheap they are, especially on FD. As a result, they are looking to be the main secondary pairing with the more expensive Yankees stack. We actually do not love the matchup for them as they face Davis Daniel who has been solid against RHH and can really neutralize the top projecting Jays. Instead, we look to the same game and love what we see for this Angels’ lineup. They are set to face right-hander Bowden Francis who is allowing RHH a .237/.351 line, and across the last 30 days has really lost it against LHH allowing them a .382/.476 line across that span. Neto (.199/.320), O’Hoppe (.203/.348), Ward (.212/.337), and Adell (xISO .162/9 HR) have looked the best against RHP this season. Overall, the Angels are quite cheap for their upside on both sites and look to have a better matchup than the higher-owned Jays. Schanuel, Calhoun, Drury, and Rendon also look decent from a point/$ standpoint.
Next up we have the Arizona Diamondbacks who may be the team flying under the radar the most on this slate. The Diamondbacks are second to just the Yankees with a run total projection right around 5.5. They are set to face right-hander Bradley Blalock, followed by a very putrid Rockies’ bullpen. The other interesting nugget here is that the Rockies have just one lefty in their bullpen who threw 28 pitches last night and has not thrown in back-to-back games all season. This means that the Dbacks will face mediocre right-handers all night long and their lefties will likely be safe from pinch-hit risk. Marte (.188/.358), Pederson (.242/.395), Carroll (8 HR), Bell (.181/.324), and Thomas (.195/.358) are the best options hitting from the left side of the plate as they all have solid numbers against RHP. Suarez, Del Castillo, McCarthy, and Perdomo will likely round out the rest of the lineup and are quite cheap which could provide you with some value.
The final GPP stack tonight is the Minnesota Twins as they take on Kansas City Royals’ right-hander Brady Singer. Singer has been very solid this season against RHH but has been destroyed by LHH. On the season, LHH hold a .228.380 line against Singer and hit all of his primary offerings well. Castro, Larnach, Wallner, and Kepler are your top lefties to stack against Singer and one of them really breaks the bank which can help open things up elsewhere. On top of that Buxton (.246/.357) and Lewis (.303/.391) have fantastic right-on-right splits and could cause fits for Singer if he is not on his A game. Best of luck tonight!