CPT: Castillo (Optimal), Severino (GPP), Haniger (GPP), Robles (GPP)
Flex: Raleigh, Lindor, Turner, Rojas, Raley, Polanco, Nimmo, McNeil, Winker, Alonso (GPP), Martinez (GPP), Vientos (GPP)
Relievers: Munoz, Diaz
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Baseball showcases the visiting New York Mets and the hometown Seattle Mariners. This is the first edition of Sunday Night Baseball being played in Seattle in over two decades, so the crowd should be rocking for this one as the Mariners go for the sweep. We love the upside that the Mariners have across the board in this matchup and our builds will reflect that. Let’s dive on in!
We will start with the visiting Mets. They have to face off with Luis Castillo in this one and he is the clear optimal captain choice in this one. He is projected for over 3.5 more raw points than the next closest player on the slate and it is quite tough to not just go ahead and slot him in up top. Castillo has had issues with lefties this year as they hold a .251/.358 line off his fastball and he has just an 18.9% K rate against them. However, he has been lethal against righties with a .118/.262 line and a 28.7% K rate against them. That plays into his hands as the Mets are projected to start five righties against him and the only lefty with concerning stats against heaters is Lindor (.253/.382). Francisco is our favorite Met option in this one, especially because he can hit value from swiping a bag or two. As a result, Castillo should have no issues keeping the train rolling for Seattle’s starters here. If you are interested in playing Mets bats, your best bet is just to target the lefties, even if they don’t hit fastballs all that well. That brings Nimmo, McNeil, and Winker into play for the Mets. Some of their bigger bats that hit fastballs well in Alonso, Martinez, and Vientos are reserved for GPPs only with how good Castillo has been against hitters on that side of the dish.
On the other side of this one, the Mets are sending Luis Severino to the mound. He is projected for 3.5 fewer points than Castillo and is only $800 less than him on DraftKings, making him an inferior play. However, as with all showdown slates, he is in play, especially because the Mariners can strike out with the best of them against righties. You can deploy him as a GPP captain if you want to get contrarian. With that being said, the matchup is sublime for the Mariners bats. Severino’s sinker has been quite bad this season. Lefties have a .204/.364 line against it and righties have a .360 xwOBA themselves. The Mariners crush righty sinkers as a team. Robles (.250/.432), Raley (.301/.362), Arozarena (.418 xwOBA), Raleigh (.413/.423), Polanco (.386 xwOBA), Haniger (.199/.348), Rojas (.179/.407), and Moore (.384 xwOBA) have all the potential in the world to explode here. Julio Rodriguez is also expected to be activated from the IL prior to this one and he has a .404 xwOBA off the sinker. You really cannot go wrong with any of the bats the Mariners are capable of slotting in here. Haniger is a sneaky GPP CPT option as he is extremely cheap and actually projects as the best point-per-dollar play on the entire slate. In terms of prioritizing the rest of the bats, Robles has been stealing bags at a rapid rate and also hitting for power, so he makes for a very good option and can be used as a GPP CPT. Rojas is extremely cheap as is Turner. Both of them will be highly owned as a result of their respective price tags. Raleigh and Arozarena both carry a ton of pop and we love their big fly capabilities as well.
Before wrapping things up, we wanted to call out the best bullpen arms to consider in this spot for value. Both Edwin Diaz and Andres Munoz are ready to fire. Diaz hasn’t pitched in the series yet because the Mets haven’t scored. If they do get a lead, he is near certain to get into a close game. It also would not be shocking to see him get in regardless because he is back in Seattle for the first time since he got traded away. It seems like a spot the Mets would be inclined to get him some action. Munoz has not allowed a hit in 11 consecutive innings and had not pitched in a week prior to closing out last night’s game. He would be our preference since we do think the edge lies with Seattle in this one. We don’t think you need to go deeper than these two since there are a ton of value bats that you can pick and choose from, especially on the Seattle side of the ledger. Best of luck tonight!