Top Pitchers: Gallen (SP1), Walker (SP2), Woodruff (risky chalk), Heaney (GPP), Bradish (GPP)
Top Stacks: CIN (#1 optimal), BOS (#2 optimal), PHI (#3 optimal), TBR (GPP #1), STL (GPP #2)
On today’s slate, the top three pitchers in terms of ownership are pretty clearly Brandon Woodruff, Zac Gallen, and Carlos Rodon. Woodruff sits at the top of our projections today in terms of both points and ownership but is making his first MLB start since April after an extended stay on the IL with a shoulder injury. Woodruff had three successful rehab appearances in the minors, pitching to a 3.09 ERA and striking out 11 batters in 11 innings. He’s built his pitch count up to a point where 80-90 pitches seems like a reasonable expectation for him today. Potential rust or a short leash are two concerns to take into consideration today with Woodruff, but his K upside is high enough that he may not even need to go too deep into the game to post solid numbers. The Pirates lineup today has some small sample sizes but has a 27.8% K rate against righties on the season, but they also have hit them for a .220 ISO and .338 wOBA. Woodruff definitely has some solid upside today but there are some potential downsides to him after a long layoff. Zac Gallen is facing a Twins lineup today that is the only one in baseball that does not have a qualified hitter with an OPS over .750. This Twins team also strikes out a ton, with a whopping 28.7% K rate against righties on the season. There is some power in their lineup but Gallen should be able to neutralize it. He’s limited both sides of the plate to xISOs under .175 and xwOBAs under .320. His 25.7% K rate may not matchup with Woodruff, but against this Minnesota lineup we can expect an uptick in strikeouts for him today. Rodon looks good in our projections, but we actually think he is a fade today. His numbers since getting healthy have been terrible and he’s facing seven right-handed bats from Houston today and holds just a 16.7% K rate against them while allowing a .223 xISO and .362 xwOBA. We know the talent that he has, but we’re taking a stand and fading Rodon at his ownership today against the Astros.
The next tier of arms features some interesting arms in Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney, and Kyle Bradish. Walker projects to be the highest-owned of this group and is also the one that we would be most comfortable using as a cheaper option in cash games today on DraftKings. Walker has done a great job generating weak contact this season, holding both sides of the plate to xISOs under .160 and xwOBAs under .330. His matchup against Kansas City is a solid one today, with their lineup striking out at a 24% rate against right-handed pitching and having just a .315 wOBA while their run total on the day sits at the 4th-lowest on the slate. Heaney projects as a much lower-owned option today as he takes the mound against the Marlins. The risk with Heaney comes in the fact that his weakness is giving up power to righties (.203 xISO) and he will likely face a majority of right-handed hitters from Miami today. Although one positive to this is that he has struck out right-handed hitters at a higher rate than lefties. His numbers against righties over the last month have actually been outstanding with just a .157 xISO and .257 xwOBA allowed to them while striking them out at a 30% clip. If he can keep this success rolling today we could be getting a great outing from a low-owned, cheaper arm. It’s just always hard to trust Heaney not to blow up. Bradish has also been pitching well in recent weeks for the Orioles and will see a scuffling Mets lineup today. Bradish over the last month has held both righties and lefties to xISOs under .160 as well as xwOBAs under .290. His 22% K rate doesn’t jump off of the page, but he is projected to face six lefties today and has struck them out at nearly a 25% rate on the season. He makes for a solid play but with Glasnow scratched, will now likely see more ownership.
For the bats today, three teams project to see decent ownership in the Reds, Phillies, and Red Sox. The Reds check in with the highest projected run total on the day and are facing right-hander Jake Irvin from the Nationals today. Over the last month, Irvin has been hit hard, allowing xISOs over .200 to both sides of the plate, but has been especially bad against lefties with a .311 xISO and .401 xwOBA allowed to them. De La Cruz, Votto, and Friedl all profile very well in this matchup with Will Benson being a solid value play along with Stuart Fairchild who ranks near the top of our pts/$ projections on both sites. The Phillies will see Zach Greinke today who’s been crushed by lefties for a .222 xISO and .371 xwOBA on the season. Over the last month, righties have started to get after him as well with a .240 xISO against him while lefties have jumped to a .249 xISO. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper both project extremely well for us today with both having xISOs around .200 against righties on the season. Young center fielder Johan Rojas has shown some ability at the plate since being called up to the majors and is another player that ranks highly in our pts/$ projections. These first two stacks are easy to use because of the combo of studs and scrubs that fit easily. This might make them even chalkier. Finally, we have the Red Sox facing Chris Bassitt today. Boston knows the book on Bassitt and are sending six lefties to the plate to attack a pitcher that’s allowed a .221 xISO to lefties on the season. Devers, Yoshida, and Duran all pop in our projections today with Triston Casas looking like another great play that won’t be as high-owned as some of these other bats. Casas has been red hot since the all star break and comes into this game hitting righties for a .279 xISO and .384 xwOBA.
Two lower owned stacks that we’re interested in are the Rays and the Cardinals. The Rays lefties should be in for a great day against Matt Manning, who on the season has allowed a .274 xISO and .386 xwOBA to them. Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco both project really strong for us, as well as Luke Raley hitting righties for a .222 xISO and .357 xwOBA on the season. There is room for the right-handed bats to eat in this matchup as well with Manning being better against righties, but still allowing a .201 xISO to them. Randy Arozarena checks in as our top projected Rays bat today with Yandy Diaz not trailing far behind. For value, Curtis Mead ranks as a nice pts/$ play to save salary from this lineup. The Cardinals will see Austin Gomber today who has allowed xISOs over .200 and xwOBAs over .350 to both sides of the plate. Unfortunately he’s been worse against lefties and most of the Cardinals’ upside comes from right-handed bats but Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tyler O’Neill all have really nice numbers against lefties this season and all project very well for us today.
Conclusion: Due to Glasnow being scratched, we expect Brandon Woodruff to be overowned for his risk profile. In optimal lineups we prefer using Gallen and Walker. In GPP lineups we like Heaney or Bradish as pivot options. There are three really strong stacks on the slate in CIN, BOS, and PHI, but none of them will be low owned. We like using one of them as your featured stack and then mixing in some bats from TB and STL to diversify your lineup. Using a mini-stack of Harper, Schwarber and Rojas is also a great move.