Update: KC/CWS has been rained out, so Cease is off the table. This makes Woodruff the top GPP arm. The Mets and Yankees games could also have issues, so check Discord before lock to see if we are able to give the all-clear. For now I’d avoid building with them.
Pitchers: Gilbert (#1 optimal), Valdez (#2 optimal), Woodruff (#1 GPP), Dunning (GPP value)
Hitters: CHC (#1 optimal), LAD (#2 optimal), SD (#1 GPP), NYM (#2 GPP), Lawler (optimal value)
Bad Chalk: Detmers
On today’s slate, there are two stud arms that most people will be using in Framber Valdez and Logan Gilbert. Valdez is the more expensive of the two, but will face off against everyone’s favorite target in OAK. Valdez comes in with healthy K rates of 29% and 15% against lefties and righties respectively, but has been a bit reverse splits allowing more damage to lefties over the last 30 days. He will face an OAK lineup that has just one lefty tonight, which does give a bit lower K upside for Valdez. However, OAK has just two bats with over a .200 xISO against righties, and the lineup overall does not have elite numbers against the sinker Valdez relies on. In cash games, Valdez is a high floor option on this slate, but we think there are better options for GPPs.
Gilbert is the optimal option we like a bit more if you wanted to use one in GPPs as well, as he comes in with elite K rates of 32% and 22% against lefties and righties respectively. He will be facing the Angels tonight, who continue to be without their duo of stars. This Angels lineup has just two bats sporting a .200 xISO or better against right-handed arms this season, and has eight bats that are striking out over 20% of the time against righties on the year. Gilbert has allowed some damage to lefties the last 30 days, but the lefties that LAA will employ do not scare us, making this an elite spot to target Gilbert as an optimal play in all formats.
The GPP target that we like so much that he’s even viable in cash games would be Dylan Cease. He has really turned a corner the last 30 days, allowing under a .150 xISO to both sides of the plate while owning a 22% and 31% strikeout rate against lefties and righties respectively. He faces off against a KC team that has seven bats in the lineup striking out over 20% of the time against right-handed arms this season. KC has just three bats that own over a .200 xISO against RHP. Even better, though, is that two of these are righties and Cease has limited right-handed bats more than lefties the last 30 days. He’s actually facing 6 righties tonight and has truly been elite against them, allowing just a .109 xISO and .290 xwOBA against them while striking them out over 30% of the time. This lineup is even worse than the original projected lineup and we think the industry might not realize how great of a spot this is for him. Cease allowed some damage in this matchup last week, but also ended up with seven Ks. We’d consider him the best GPP arm on the slate in this matchup, and he’s the best PT/$ option in our projections, which makes him viable in cash games as well.
If you want to pivot from the more optimal plays and spend up for a stud arm, Brandon Woodruff is your guy today. Woodruff has flashed elite strikeout upside across the last 30 days, striking out lefties and righties 27% and 32% of the time respectively. He also has allowed under a .170 xISO and .290 xwOBA to both sides of the plate as well. Miami will send seven bats to the plate that strike out over 20% of the time against right-handed arms, making this a prime spot to spend up for the high end K upside Woody provides you. We love targeting Woody in GPPs on this slate if you can save the salary with your offensive pieces.
When looking at value arms, it seems like Detmers will be the one to carry some ownership on this slate, who we actually believe to be pretty mediocre for his level of ownership in a rough matchup against the SEA offense. Detmers has very limited strikeout upside right now, as he carries a 14% and 15% strikeout rate against lefties and righties respectively the last 30 days. We would much rather take the ownership discount and look at Dunning who has about a 25% strikeout rate against both lefties and righties the last 30 days. While he has allowed some damage to righties, Dunning’s most beatable pitch has been the slider, which the TOR righties have really struggled against this season. TOR has six bats with a strikeout rate of 20% or more against right-handed arms this year, and at this discounted price tag and ownership, Dunning would be our target in GPPs if you need to save salary and afford two expensive stacks. He doesn’t project all that well because the Toronto bats can send him into the negatives, but he does have a high ceiling, and we project him to be super low owned.
The CHC stack looks very good as an optimal stack tonight, as they will be in Coors Field against LHP Kyle Freeland. Freeland has been mashed by righties, especially with his sinker the last 30 days. Options like Morel, Swanson, and Wisdom have great stats against lefties, and we even like adding pieces like Suzuki, Bellinger, and Hoerner with these guys to complete a full stack. This stack should carry a bit of ownership, but if you get unique in other spots then this stack can be used in GPPs as well as cash games.
The LAD bats get a great matchup on this slate as well, and will be a secondary optimal stack to the Cubs. They will face off against RHP Pedro Avila, who relies heavily on his four-seam and changeup, throwing them over 25% of the time each to lefties and righties. The main pieces of this stack like Betts, Freeman, Muncy, Smith and Martinez all mash the four-seam and have solid numbers against the changeup as well. Martinez, Betts, and Freeman also have great stats against the sinker that Avila uses 20% of the time. This stack makes for a great target across all formats, as we actually don’t project them to carry all that much ownership.
On the other side of the same game, SD also grades out well for us, as RHP Gavin Stone for the Dodgers has severely struggled against righty bats this season. He also allows over a .200 xISO with the change up he throws 46% of the time to lefties. If targeting this offense, we prefer to keep it condensed to the main studs like Tatis, Soto, and Machado, but if you wanted to extend a bit in deeper GPPs, options like Kim and Bogaerts are viable as well. Tatis will be the highest owned piece to this stack, but the rest of them make for very solid options in GPPs.
In deeper GPPs, we actually like targeting a stack of left-handed bats from NYM, who will face off against Zach Davies. Davies has allowed over a .260 xISO with his four-seam against lefties over the last 30 days. He is also allowing over a .200 xISO against righties overall, along with a .445 wOBA. This bodes well for the likes of Nimmo, Lindor, Vogelbach, and Alonso who all match up extremely well against the four-seam from right-handed arms. Even the likes of Alvarez and Stewart grade well for us as deeper value targets from this stack. If you are looking to pay up for your pitchers, the Mets are a great way to save some salary and get unique on tonight’s slate.
Lastly, we have a great one-off play in Jordan Lawler, who is an optimal value target on this slate for us. He is priced down at the minimum on both sites and has elite stolen base upside and some added power upside to pair with it. This makes him a great value piece to target in optimal lineups. He’s one of the best PT/$ plays on the slate and he fills the SS position for you. He will face off against LHP Jose Quintana, and while he has a limited sample, this is a great salary relief piece to help pay up for a top stack or pitchers. Another great value play on DK in particular is Austin Wells. He fills the catcher position and is an elite PT/$ play in a solid matchup.
Update: Build without Wells and Mets for now because the Yankees and Mets games are at risk of being postponed due to rain.
Conclusion: Most people would consider the optimal arms for this slate to be Valdez and Gilbert, but we like Cease so much that we consider him not only the top GPP arm but also cash viable. We also really like looking at Woodruff if you want to spend the extra bit of salary and take a chance on K upside in GPP formats. He should be quite a bit lower owned than the top guys despite barely projecting any worse. If you really want to get leverage and spend less salary, Dunning is worth a look as a value arm to afford two expensive stacks, but he could also get blown up. Our optimal stacks tonight will be CHC in Coors, and the LAD bats against Avila, as both are viable in cash games and are usable in GPPs, particularly the Dodgers who won’t be too chalky. The ways to get unique on offense would be to target the SD studs and pair them with a semi chalky Tatis, or to get even more leverage with the lefties and Alonso from the NYM. One other thing to note is that in optimal lineups, Jordan Lawler and Austin Wells provide excellent value at bad positions and make a ton of sense in optimal lineups.