Deonte Harty was the third wideout for Buffalo in the preseason and is their starting slot receiver. He ran a route on 10 of Josh Allen’s dropbacks in the preseason, with the next closest receiver (after Diggs and Davis) seeing three. Harty actually saw two targets, catching two balls on the first-team offense’s only drive in the last preseason game. The Bills clearly have faith in Harty, as they signed him to a two-year contract worth up to almost $10 million. Buffalo ran 3-WR sets 78% of the time with Allen under center in 2022. We’ll likely see a downtick this year, as they have strong tight ends in Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid. They used a 3-WR set 59% of the time in the preseason with Allen in the game. For a receiver that will be on the field for around 50% (if not more) of the dropbacks, while having the easiest matchup of the pass-catchers from being in the slot, this line is too low. This line is currently at 1.5 at -130, and we’d take it up to -200.
