Pitchers: Peralta (Optimal #1), Sale (Optimal #2), Heaney (Optimal Value), Cole (GPP #1), Severino (GPP Value)
Hitting: BOS (Optimal #1), MIL (GPP #1), NYY (GPP #2), ATL (GPP #3), PIT (Value Stack)
Today is the return of NFL Sunday, but if you still want your MLB fix, we still have a slate to cover for you, so let’s get right into it.
We begin with Freddy Peralta, who takes on the Colorado Rockies today. On the season, Peralta has K rates of 27% to both sides of the plate. All 9 projected Colorado hitters have K rates above 19% with 8 of them being in the 20’s. The matchup is solid to rack up the K’s after we just saw Montas have a field day yesterday. The X stats also backup Peralta as he has an xISO of .160 to both sides of the plate and an xwOBA no higher than .311 to either side of the plate. He will be very popular and a fantastic option for cash games.
Our next optimal pitcher on this slate is Chris Sale, who faces off with the Toronto Blue Jays at home. Sale brings his 35% K rate to LHH and 31% K rate to RHH against a team that features 6 hitters with K rates above 20%, including 4 in the 30’s. Unlike Peralta, Sale has insanely elite X stats as he holds LHH to a (.076 xISO/.253 xwOBA) and RHH to a (.113 xISO/.263 xwOBA). Sale has the better X stats while Peralta has the better K upside with that Rockies lineup so feel free to choose whichever you prefer if you don’t play them together.
Our optimal value on this slate will be Andrew Heaney, who goes up against the Los Angeles Angels. Heaney has K rates of 22% to LHH and 24% to RHH. He has the luxury of facing an Angels lineup that brings 5 hitters with K rates above 18%. The X stats also backup Heaney in this spot as he sports a (.163xISO/.325xwOBA) against LHH and a (.186 xISO/.315 xwOBA) vs. RHH. He makes for a good salary relief option if looking to spend up for bats today.
Now we move on to our top GPP pitcher of this slate in Gerritt Cole, who takes on the Chicago Cubs. Cole has been on an absolute heater these last 30 days as he sports K rates of 30% to lefties and 33% to righties. In addition to the great K rates over the past month, he also pairs that K upside with X stats of (.109 xISO/.280 xwOBA) to LHH and (.081 xISO/.214 xwOBA) to RHH which is as good as it gets. Now he gets treated to a Cubs team that fields 6 hitters with K rates above 18% including 5 in the 20’s. Cole makes for a fantastic pivot in tournaments at half the ownership of the optimal pitchers in just as good of a matchup.
If you are looking for a GPP value, then look no further than Luis Severino, who will be battling the Cincinnati Reds. On the season, Sevy has K rates of 20% to both sides of the plate. The upside for Severino in this spot is that he faces 7 Reds hitters with K rates above 20%, which is really good in terms of K upside. The X stats have also been fine this year as he holds lefties to the tune of a (.162 xISO/.332 xwOBA) and righties to a (.113 xISO/.289 xwOBA). He makes for a nice double-value option with Heaney or GPP value to pair with any of the studs we mentioned for this slate.
Let’s now dive into the bats as the Boston Red Sox are our optimal option on this slate. They take on Chris Flexen, who has been a gascan this year due to his fastball getting crushed by both sides of the plate. Jarren Duran (.281/.393), Rafael Devers (.383/.419), Tyler O’Neil (.237 xISO), Masataka Yoshida (.372 xwOBA), Tristen Casas (.197/.356), and Ceddane Rafaela (.259 xISO) have seen the fastball well this season. Feel free to use Wilyer Abreu who sports a (.223/.334) rate vs. RHP this season. We also say welcome back to Trevor Story, who projects to be in this lineup today, so he makes for a viable play as well going against the poor pitching of Chicago.
Now we move along to the Milwaukee Brewers, who take on Kyle Freeland at home today. That’s important to note because Freeland has been bad on the road this season, so we are definitely going to take advantage of that matchup. Freelands’s flaws are that he gives up damage with his fastball to LHH and with his sinker to RHH. Brice Turang is the only lefty in this lineup, but he’s still viable due to his stolen base upside and his matchup vs. the Rockies bullpen if they knock Freeland out early. As far as the RHH go, William Contreras (.301/.479), Willy Adames (.204/.376), Gary Sanchez (.951/.749), Blake Perkins (.434 xwOBA), and Joey Ortiz (.409 xwOBA) have all seen this sinker well this season. Rhys Hoskins (.207 xISO) and Jackson Churio (.352 xwOBA) have hit LHP well this season.
Our next stack to discuss is the New York Yankees, who take on Jameson Taillon. The downside to Taillon has been his fastball as he has seen it get destroyed by both sides of the plate. Gleyber Torres (.208/.373), Juan Soto (.513/.556), Aaron Judge (.467/.516), Austin Wells (.379/.451), Giancarlo Stanton (.379/.382), Jazz Chisholm (.234/.327), Anthony Rizzo (.356 xwOBA), and Alex Verdugo (.185/.339) have all hit the fastball well this season. There are plenty of options to target in this Yankees lineup, so have at it!
Our next stack option on this slate is the Atlanta Braves. They are going up against Yariel Rodriguez, who has been inconsistent. Over the past 30 days, he has seen his fastball get hit pretty hard by both sides of the plate, which has contributed to his slumpy stretch of baseball. Jorge Soler (.344/.435), Marcell Ozuna (.352/.432), Matt Olson (.230/.366), Sean Murphy (.428/.470), Orlando Arcia (.198 xISO), Jarred Kelenic (.210/.344), and Luke Williams (.384/.445) all have hit that pitch well this season. His X stats vs. the fastball aren’t good but Michael Harris is a viable option from the leadoff spot as he still projects well.
Our last stack of the day gives us a value option to spend up for pitching in the Pittsburgh Pirates. On the season Corbin has given up damage with the fastball to both sides of the plate, which is why he has struggled this season. Bryan Reynolds (.395 xwOBA), Joey Bart (.197/.398), Andrew McCutchen (.301/.374), O’Neil Cruz (.199/.349), and Bryan De La Cruz (.282/.390) all have seen that pitch well this season. Isaiah Kiner–Falefa is another viable option with his stolen base upside in the leadoff spot. Jared Triolo, Connor Joe, and Nick Gonzalez are also great pt/$ options. Best of luck this afternoon!