Optimal: Hamlin, Jones, Suarez, Hocevar, Smith, Nemechek, Wallace, Stenhouse, Lajoie, Haley, Bell
GPP: Keselowski, Elliott, Chastain, Busch, Buescher, Reddick, Truex, Gibbs
NASCAR is back in Atlanta for the second time this season. Atlanta was reconfigured to race like a Superspeedway two years ago. The efforts were successful, and we know that in Superspeedway races we stack the back. While stack the back still applies here, purely stacking the back with all six of your fantasy spots is yet to be optimal since the reconfiguration. We still think full stacking the back of the pack should be the strategy, we are not against playing a driver or two starting in the top half of the field either.
Denny Hamlin is a lock in cash games and a strong GPP play as well. Hamlin had engine issues in qualifying which has him now starting dead last. They said they have fixed the problem and will be ready to roll today. Erik Jones is also starting in 33rd and is always competitive at Superspeedways. He, like Hamlin, is a strong option in all formats. Daniel Suarez won at Atlanta earlier this season and is starting 30th. Suarez is a safe play, but he may see boosted ownership due to his win earlier this season. Of our optimal plays starting 30th or worse, Suarez would be our preferred one to fade in GPPs.
Our next group of optimal plays project for slightly lower ownership than the drivers above, which makes us more inclined to lean into this group in our GPP lineups. Starting with Carson Hocevar, a talented and aggressive driver starting 32nd. We expect Hocevar to be vying for a top 10 or better if he avoids the carnage. Next is Zane Smith, another young and talented driver who is starting 34th. Zane actually projects as our top pt/$ play and is arguably our favorite play on the slate. We also expect his ownership to be lower than the rest of our optimal plays. John Hunter Nemechek is also a solid play starting 35th. Everyone is flocking towards JHN’s teammate Jones, who starts 33rd, but no one is talking about JHN. We love the pivot to Nemechek here.
We have some elite Superspeedway drivers starting in the mid-to-high 20s. Starting with Bubba Wallace, who has been one of the best Superspeedway drivers over the past couple years. Wallace is hungry for a win after unfortunately missing the playoffs. He has a huge ceiling starting 24th. Ricky Stenhouse, Corey Lajoie, and Justin Haley are all priced higher than usual due to their successes at Superspeedways, but we love including at least one of them in your lineups today. Haley is the cheapest, starting the furthest back, and projects for the lowest ownership out of those three, so he is our preferred pick. Haley actually led a large portion of the most recent Dayton race, showcasing his capabilities.
Christopher Bell, Martin Truex, Tyler Reddick, and Ty Gibbs all start in the 20s and appear to be popular options today. Bell starts the furthest back out of this group, and has had a great average running position at Atlanta over the past two years. He grades out the best, but will be the highest owned. Ty Gibbs projects to be the lowest owned out of this Toyota group, and we prefer him over Reddick and Truex for that reason.
Lastly, some of our top GPP options starting inside the top 20 are Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher, and Kyle Busch. Ross, like Bubba, is hungry for a win after missing the playoffs. Ross’s teammate Suarez won this race earlier this season, and we believe Ross could be next. This is Chase Elliott’s home track and he always performs well here, including a win two years ago. Keselowski and teammate Chris Buescher are great Superspeedway drivers and always seem to work together in these races. Winning this race is also Keselowski’s best chance to advance to the next round of the playoffs, so we have him as one of our top picks to win this race outright. Finally, Kyle Busch, who barely missed a win last week, which unfortunately kept him out of the playoffs. Busch has had a fast hot rod lately and is one of the best drivers in the series. We love including one of these GPP guys in your lineups today. I will be in Discord up until lock, best of luck today!