Cash: Nurmagomedov, Asakura, Ce, Hassan
GPP: Tsuruya, Xiaonan, Liu, Polastri, Long
Value: Nelson, Jenkins, Perez, Batbayar, Song, Rodriguez, Gomes, Santiago
Welcome to a very early start as the UFC heads to Shanghai to showcase their Asian fighters. We got a fun card in store so let’s discuss our picks!
The main event gives us Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong in a fun matchup. We love punting with Song Yadong in this spot because there is a path for him to win this fight. The biggest deciding factor is whether he can stuff enough takedowns and we believe he can do so here. Of all the Nurmagomedovs, Umar has shown some cracks in his game and is prone to tiring out in five round fights and attempting weaker takedown attempts. If Yadong can stuff just a couple takedowns in the later rounds, this fight can start to get closer than many people expect because the striking edge is about even. The shots of Song will be more impactful and the home crowd will be roaring at every strike. The power and cardio edge belongs to Song in our opinion and he certainly can score well from his cheap price. Nurmagomedov is viable in GPPs but we have already seen he hasn’t put up any slate breaking scores in his two 5-round fights. We don’t expect one here with takedowns potentially being harder to come by. Give us the punt value and home country fighter in Song Yadong.
We believe that Denise Gomes is going to a popular value that we feel is a trap this week. That would make Yan Xiaonan one of our favorite midrange plays for leverage. Denise Gomes is on a massive four fight win streak feasting off lower level competition. We believe the win streak ends here though against a talented striker like Xiaonan. The way to beat Xiaonan is by being a better technical striker or by wrestling her to the ground. Denise Gomes is a power puncher so Xiaonan is in an excellent spot to show off the striking edge she’ll have in this matchup. We believe her speed advantage will be key in avoiding any power shots and she’ll be able to counter very effectively. The cardio and volume edge also reside with Xiaonan which solidifies this play for us.
One of our favorite studs on the slate is Kai Asakura as he takes on Aoriqileng. This will be a simple breakdown because Aoriqileng doesn’t do well against power punchers. Not only is he facing on here, but Asakura also boasts a massive speed advantage which is going to be a nightmare to deal with. We expect that speed advantage to show and a knockout to come to fruition early on for Kai Asakura.
Sumudaerji and Alex Perez run their fight back after having a no-contest. We were on Perez the first time around because of the wrestling but our pick was looking terrible because that gameplan wasn’t working. Had a groin shot not happened, Sumudaerji was well on his way to winning that fight. That is why the odds are the way they are at the moment. This game is all about adjustments and we believe Perez and his team have had plenty of time to figure out how to go about things with the wrestling this time around in order to have success. We envision some time off is a crucial help and that Perez can have success with his wrestling this time around. The value is way too good to pass up here with Alex Perez and we are willing to look foolish again believing in him.
Levi Rodriguez is getting a quick turnaround fight as he looks to bounce back against Liu Ce. The value in Rodriguez is viable if it helps your builds because these are two finishers and we don’t expect this fight to see the scorecards. We will be siding with Ce here though because this is way too quick of a turnaround for Rodriguez taking this fight on short notice. The way to beat Ce is with wrestling and Rodriguez doesn’t have that. The one thing Rodriguez does have is poor striking defense and that is something we believe Ce can take advantage of. We’d give the striking, power, and cardio advantage to Ce which is enough for us to side with him.
One of the best studs on this slate is Bilal Hassan who takes on Nilson Rojas. We are extremely impressed with Hassan as a striker as he carries massive speed and can put together devastating combinations. This is one of the best striking prospects we’ve seen in awhile and we are excited to see him display why to open up the main card. We expect an early finish as Hassan uses his fantastic striking and speed to showcase himself.
Our next fight gives us Andre Lima and Namsrai Batbayar. This is an easy fight for us to decide on as we side with Batbayar as the value play. There are a lot of things going against Lima for us. He said he didn’t want to fight at this weight division yet here he is again. Second, he missed weight which is a red flag for us and his cardio could potentially be an issue. Lastly, he looked terrible in his last fight against Borjas and Batbayar has the wrestling to beat Lima in this spot with it. In addition, Batbayar has the power advantage so we also wouldn’t be surprised to see a killshot here. We love everything going for Batbayar in this spot against Lima who we aren’t all that impressed with.
The most expensive stud on this slate is Rei Tsuruya as he takes on Kevin Borjas. This is another showcase spot for Tsuruya to continue his positive momentum as Borjas has not faced a volume wrestler like Tsuruya. Kevin Borjas also has no ground game to speak of so we expect Tsuruya to get this fight to the ground very quickly and find the submission finish.
Our next fight gives us another value as we side with Jack Jenkins over Sean Woodson. The reason we like Jenkins is because his bread and butter are his leg kicks which can do tremendous damage. Sean Woodson is a long fighter with skinny legs so this is the absolute worst possible matchup he could have gotten. Woodson does have sniper striking but he’s going to need his legs to make use of it and we don’t believe he’ll have that. We expect Jenkins to pick apart the legs and initiate takedowns and use powerful clinch strikes to win this fight.
Lawrence Liu is another stud we like on this slate as he takes on Hector Santiago. We like Liu because he likes to put pressure on his opponents and the reason he can do that is because he is a physically strong fighter. He uses that strength to either get things done with the wrestling or land some powerful shots. Santiago has some decent power striking himself but doesn’t fight well when he deals with pressure. He’s going to get that here with Liu and we just believe it is going to be pure domination from start to finish. There is upside for a late finish here as Liu has an overwhelming style that may be hard to deal with over the course of three rounds for Santiago.
Julia Polastri is the next fighter we like as we expect her to bounce back against Xiong Jingnan. All of Polastri’s losses have been against tough customers, so this fight against Jingnan is a major step down in competition. Jingnan looked terrible against Angela Hill in her last fight. If Jingnan was already having problems with an older and slower version of Hill, then she’s certainly going to have problems with Polastri. We like Julia Polastri because she has the striking, volume, and cardio edges in this fight to go along with sneaky wrestling in her backpocket. This is one of the more interesting GPP plays you can consider by siding with Polastri.
The 50/50 fight gives us Ding Meng and Cam Nelson. We are going to give the ever so slight edge to the value in Cam Nelson in this spot. The reason we like Cam Nelson is because he does look good with his striking, grappling, and cardio to go along with putting pressure in his fights. The problem we have with Nelson is the level of competition he has faced. Of course he looks good when he is taking on cans in a small promotion. We are encouraged by what we have seen on film though that we believe it could translate to the UFC against low level competition. Ding Meng is a step up in competition for sure but still categorizes as a low level fighter that we believe Cam Nelson can have success against. This is a great opportunity for Nelson to get quality reps and showcase why we feel his MMA game can translate in the UFC.
The last fight to discuss gives us Xiao Long and Francesco Nuzzi. This is a super easy fight to break down as Nuzzi is one trick pony. Actually, a pony is a luxury horse so we’d say one trick donkey. Nuzzi has leg kicks but they aren’t the devastating kind like Jack Jenkins who we discussed earlier. Nuzzi also doesn’t do well with pressure which is exactly what Long brings to the table. Xiao Long pretty much checks every box for us as he has the advantage in every facet of MMA here against Nuzzi. A finish is in the realm of possibilities with the pressure he likes to put on and his price makes him one of the more fun midrange fighters to use in your lineups.