QB: Nussmeier, Milroe, Ehlinger, McCord, Milton, Daniels
RB: Nwangwu, Trayanum, Kiner, K. Allen, Wright, Claiborne, Tucker
WR: Fehoko, Virgil, Smith-Marsette, Bell, Foster, J. Jones, Neyor, Royals
TE: Arroyo, Kuntz, Welch, Fairweather
D/ST: Broncos, Falcons, Giants, Texans
The preseason feels like it ends as quickly as it starts, with only 3 weeks the last few years, and we are onto the last big slate tonight! There are a wide variety of ways this game is usually handled, ranging from us getting some situations where guys will play the entire game to where it gets spread out amongst backups even more, as this is the last chance for coaches to make decisions on final roster spots. Even though we have a ton of games, we still like to keep our pool of players fairly narrow and bet on the spots we like best to hit, rather than trying to cover all our bases. That’s a surefire way to drive yourself nuts on bigger slates, instead of just focusing on the best plays. Let’s get to it!
At quarterback, we’ve got two guys who are head and shoulders above the field with Jalen Milroe and Garrett Nussmeier. Milroe is definitely playing the whole game, and his rushing ability is also very helpful. Nussmeier, there is a little uncertainty on, as Andy Reid said Fields needs to stay loose in case he’s called upon, but he made it sound like it’s more in case of an injury to Nussmeier than anything. We do think Milroe will be owned quite a bit more than Nussmeier, though, but we actually like Nussmeier a little more since he’s just a better thrower, which is still the most important part of the position, so he’s our optimal guy, and we might get him lower-owned. Sam Ehlinger isn’t quite on the level of the first two, but we suspect Stidham has done enough to keep the backup job, so he won’t be out there for a whole half. This would give Ehlinger around 3 quarters of play, so he is a nice choice as well. There are some other options behind these three, our favorite being Kyle McCord. Though it hasn’t been confirmed by Green Bay, we’d expect Tyrod Taylor to only get a couple of series, as he’s locked in as the clear backup to Love, and there’s no reason to keep him out there. This will give McCord a majority of the game, creating a nice ceiling at a lower ownership given how much we expect the first two guys to be played. Joe Milton has been night and day compared to last preseason, playing the best of any QBs for Dallas this preseason. While he might only get a half, he’s been doing so much in his time we have to consider him for GPPs. Our favorite dark horse is Jalon Daniels in Tampa. It’s been reported he’s seen more of the QB2 work the last week and seems to have the leg up on Jake Browning for the backup spot, and this could be a spot they let him play 2.5-3 quarters to see how he reacts to most of the game. His floor is lower than any of the other guys, but he’s been playing well enough that if he’s given the time, he could put up a nice score.
We have a running back room that looks like it will only have 2 guys dressed, so they jump to the top of the heap. The Jets are only expected to have Kene Nwangwu and Chip Trayanum going, and make them the two optimal backs. We like Nwangwu just a hair more than Trayanum, but there’s a chance since Kene’s been in the league a bit now, he gets more clicks because of the name recognition, so Trayanum might be the lower-owned choice who has a viable path to outscoring Nwangwu. After those two, we like what Corey Kiner has continued to do in preseason in terms of the amount of usage he’s getting. He’s had double-digit carries in each game, and we don’t expect it to really slow down here. Kaytron Allen didn’t have his ridiculous Week 1 usage carry over when they split the touches between 3 backs, but he was still used often enough, and we think they’ll keep wanting to see what he can do. Demond Claiborne might not be the most efficient guy, but he’s getting the usage so far through two weeks, and has the speed to break one for a big play, so he’s an option in GPPs. Jacardia Wright was ready to go after missing Week 1 and had some strong usage last week for Seattle. We expect him to be a big option here as they round out their depth chart and see how real his summer has been in their final game situation. Sean Tucker is probably the best back based on talent of the guys we like, but his usage could be the least. He’s still efficient enough and such a goal-line weapon we want to keep him in consideration for GPPs.
Turning our attention to the receivers, the theme of thin position groups is the big one again. The Cardinals won’t have a lot of guys dressed, and ran a pretty condensed group in Week 2, and it looks like it should be the same to close out the preseason. Simi Fehoko, Reggie Virgil, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette should all be running a ton of routes, and are our three favorite plays on the day. We wouldn’t play all of them together in one lineup, but two would be just fine, especially if you’re playing cash games. If you choose just 1, it’d be either Fehoko or Virgil, as Fehoko has been a favorite in the red zone, but Virgil’s overall usage is greater. Ronnie Bell and Montorie Foster are both guys who’ve been around and will be fighting to make an impression to make a final roster spot, or at least put some great tape out there for the rest of the league as they are filling spots and practice squads. Both of them should be out there a decent amount and are very good GPP choices. Jeshaun Jones was getting reps all game long in Week 2, and they’ve been trying him out with the 1st team when Addison was out. He could be someone they’re considering to keep on the team, so we’d expect another long look at him. Isaiah Neyor is another candidate for a final roster spot in Green Bay, and his usage spiked in Week 2, so we think that’ll continue so they can decide on him. Jaylen Royals is our favorite under-the-radar guy for this slate. He had over 50% route participation last week and has been getting more mentions through the end of camp, and he could be pushing for a real role on the team in the regular season. Reid always loves his fast guys and finding ways to get them the ball, so we think he will continue to be used a lot here to see what he can continue to do.
Tight end has four guys we prefer over the rest, and in the interest of keeping our player pool tight, we wouldn’t go outside of these four guys. Elijah Arroyo has real pass-catching chops at the NFL level, and they’ve played him a good amount in the preseason. We think they’ll want to give Milroe someone he can trust, so he should continue to be used at a decent rate. Dallas still has some guys who haven’t been practicing, so Zack Kuntz should be out there a ton like he was last week. Not a great pass catcher, but he did get 4 targets just from being on the field so long in Week 2, so we can’t turn our nose up at that usage for this position. Treyton Welch won’t have much competition in New Orleans either, so we like him with the amount of routes he’s likely to run once again. With all the WR injuries and not a deep tight end room either, Rivaldo Fairweather has been getting some nice looks in Arizona, and with 9 targets in their three games, while it doesn’t sound like much, this is some consistent usage tight ends don’t usually see in preseason, so he’s the fourth guy who rounds out our pool for this position.
On defense, the Denver Broncos might give some starters a bit of run, and they get to play the Minnesota Vikings, who don’t have any QBs that would scare you dressing. They are our favorite team, though the Atlanta Falcons aren’t far behind with a lot of Quin Ewers and Cam Miller expected for the Dolphins. The New York Giants are so deep at the pass rush positions that someone is gonna have to play, and that makes them an intriguing choice for GPPs. Speaking of QBs who don’t scare you, Kenny Pickett should see a good amount of time in Carolina with Haynes King still out, so the Houston Texans round out the teams we want to consider at defense on this slate.
Good luck to everyone this week! We’ll see you in Discord!