CPT/MVP Plays: Mahomes, Etienne, Worthy, D. Brown (Cheap GPP)
FLEX/UTIL: Lawrence, H. Brown, Butker, Little, Smith-Schuster, Strange, Chiefs D/ST, Jaguars D/ST, Washington, Gray
Week 5 brings us an exciting AFC showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars, two teams built around elite quarterbacks and dynamic playmakers. With strong projected point totals and several mid-tier players providing salary relief, this slate is shaping up to be one of the most balanced of the season for DFS contests, offering both cash game safety and high-upside GPP potential. Let’s get into it!
Starting with the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes is the unquestioned optimal and top CPT/MVP option. His efficiency and rushing ability mean he will be involved in every scoring drive, making him one of the highest-ceiling plays on the slate. Despite his hefty salary, Mahomes’ consistent 20+ point floor and strong projection justify paying for him. The only knock on him here is just how much ownership he is projecting for at Captain, particularly on DK, so we understand looking at some of the other options in GPPs. Xavier Worthy is an ideal tournament pivot. The rookie has flashed elite speed and separation, and his deep targets (17-yard aDOT in his return last week) provide slate-breaking upside. If this game turns into a shootout, Worthy could easily outperform his salary and become the top overall scorer with how much he was getting involved last week. Travis Etienne is one of the most complete fantasy running backs in football and is a great CPT/MVP choice for GPPs. Whether Jacksonville leads or trails, we expect Etienne will see touches and scoring opportunities, and he is going against the 29th-ranked rush defense by PFF. He will be played at the CPT/MVP spot, but probably not at the rate he should be, since people still think of Kansas City as an elite defensive team. Dyami Brown can be used here as a cheap GPP captain if you’re looking to load up on all the other higher-priced skill guys. He has no injury designation coming into this game, and he’s played the second-most snaps among wide receivers in his three games. He’s getting targeted in the red zone as well, tied for the team lead in a 21.4% red zone target rate in those games, and we like his deeper aDOT at 11.6 yards. He’s way too cheap on DK specifically and has enough of a ceiling with his usage in the red zone.
For the other Chiefs, JuJu Smith-Schuster is used in a short-area role and didn’t see his targets dry up when Worthy came back, with 6 of them last week. We think he is viable with his cheaper price tag here, sitting below the kickers. Hollywood Brown provides explosive potential. While his aDOT is middling at 7.7 yards, he is second on the team in YAC, which gives him a sneaky ceiling. Noah Gray deserves attention as a low-salary tight end option. While not heavily targeted, he maintains a consistent role in two-tight end sets and is always a red-zone threat, making him a sneaky way to gain pass-game exposure without paying for premium pieces. And of course there’s Travis Kelce, who could benefit from the new Jaguars regime shifting to a lot more zone coverage, especially over the middle. Historically we have seen Kelce dominate zones. So even in his reduced snap share I think he’s a solid play. We’ve also seen him do better when he’s not the team’s top option, so there are definitely some positive factors tonight that make him viable.
Turning to the Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence has shown some strong flashes in this new offense. His athleticism and ability to distribute the ball across multiple receivers enable him to rack up points quickly. He has a career-low 58% completion percentage so far this year, but was able to hit 67% of his passes last year, which we think shows that he’s becoming more comfortable, and Coen is figuring out how best to maximize him in this offense. Looking at Jacksonville’s pass-catchers, Parker Washington stands out for his ascending route share and consistent targets. He out-snapped Hunter pretty aggressively last week, playing 85% of the snaps compared to 56% for Hunter. That makes us lean toward him as the WR3 right now in this offense, and at his price, he offers one of the slate’s strongest pt/$ options. Brenton Strange offers sneaky GPP appeal. He’s playing 81% of the snaps and is too cheap for someone who is on the field that much, making him a nice option that saves a bit of salary, as it only takes one trip to the endzone for him to post an excellent score.
When looking at the specialists, Cam Little and Harrison Butker are both viable here. Little has had multiple FG attempts in each game, although he has not been called on to kick one of 50+ yards yet, with how aggressive Coen likes to be on 4th down, so that does ding his ceiling a bit. He’s used enough overall, though, that he can be used here. Butker has a higher ceiling, as he’s attempted five FGs already of over 50 yards, and that’s where we like to see our kickers get opportunities if we are rostering them. Defensively, both Jaguars D/ST and Chiefs D/ST units are playable, but not priorities for us. The Jags have a league-leading 13 turnovers, and a lot of those haven’t been gifts or mistakes, but ones that they have legitimately forced. We don’t expect them to continue averaging over three a game, and Kansas City is generally pretty good with the ball, but it is something to note. The Chiefs still have talent on the defensive line, getting 9 sacks, and Lawrence has thrown a pick in three of his four games this season, and isn’t always the best at protecting the ball.
Best of luck to everyone tonight!