We have our first Monday night slate of the year with a great matchup in store as the Buffalo Bills take on the New York Jets. We wanted to jump right into our Biggest Edge on this slate for GPPs as this is shaping up to be an awesome slate. Deonte Harty at minimum price is our flag plant on this slate, as we don’t think he will draw enough ownership in this spot. We believe he has won the wide receiver 3 job for Buffalo, but rumors about Trent Sherfield and Khalil Shakir are buzzing around the industry which could take ownership off of him. Most of these rumors are based on guesswork and armchair talent evaluation, which is usually worthless in my opinion. We believe Harty is the guy here, as he was playing with the starters for most of the preseason, and the credible reports we’ve seen definitely make it sound like we’re correct in our stance.
Most people seem stuck in some sort of take lock on other Bills WRs that they thought would surely win this job, and they can’t believe a guy they never even considered ended up as the WR3. It’s also one of those things where everyone thinks he’s the type of “chalk” to pivot off, and then he actually ends up being like 20% owned and everyone realizes they could’ve had a starter for min price and low ownership but instead they chose to believe that somehow Khalil Shakir. Let me quickly address Shakir while we’re on the topic. He was a 5th round draft pick who did very little in his rookie year and missed time in the preseason and throughout training camp with an injury. What about that profiles as a guy who steals the starting slot role from Harty tonight? He’s far more likely to score 0 than he is to be in the optimal lineup.
Back to Harty, we believe he is a great start to all lineups and he makes it easy to access the top guys, who are crucial to this slate. With the Jets having some of the best corners in the game, we believe Allen will target his inside guys early and often, making this a great spot for Harty at the stone cold minimum. He runs very crisp routes and has a high ceiling if the other guys aren’t getting open against the strong corners. At the very least, we think he’ll get a couple receptions at or behind the line of scrimmage from screens or quick hitting zip routes, which makes his receptions prop of 1.5 a complete smash on the over. Note that even though we love Harty, he’s probably still not worth using at captain because typically you need the highest scoring player in that spot. The only way he’s the optimal captain without being the highest scorer is if all the studs go off, which is possible, but almost every Harty captain build will be similar, so it’s actually hard to win with it. Even if he’s .5% owned at captain, you may find that your lineup is duped because there are only a few builds that make sense when you’ve got nearly unlimited salary. Lock him into your flex spot and move on.
Moving over to quarterback, we have the fantasy unicorn himself Josh Allen. As always, Allen carries massive upside in this pass heavy offense as well as having added upside with his rushing ability. He does have a tough matchup in this spot though, as the Jets allowed the fewest passing points per game last season. Allen struggled through the air in their matchups (18/35 205-0-2 and 16-27 147-1-0) but his legs still allowed him to finish QB3 and QB7 in those weeks. There has been a lot of talk about the Bills wanting Allen to run less this season, which we think there could be some merit to, but regardless he remains one of the highest upside plays on this slate and is a great option as captain or flex. In GPPs, I don’t hate fading him at his price and hoping for some RB touchdowns and less running from Allen around the goal line. My gut feeling is that they call fewer designed runs for Allen and trust the RBs more, but until we see it play out that way we can’t really know.
The number 1 target in this offense in 2022 was Stefon Diggs as he garnered a massive 31% target share. Diggs will be faced with a tough matchup in this spot as the Jets allowed the 5th-lowest points per target to opposing WR1s and fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers overall. Diggs was held in check in both games last season as he was held to 5-93-0 on 10 targets and 3-37-0 on 5 targets. The upside is always there for Stefon, but as the projected 2nd highest owned player on the slate, he makes for an interesting fade in favor of some more matchup friendly options. This is a risky fade of course as Diggs also projects for the 2nd most fantasy points, and he’s the type of guy who can bury you for sure, but at high ownership we think it could be a huge leverage spot against the field to fade him. There are a lot of studs to play and you can’t use them all, so you’ve gotta pick your poison somewhere. I’ll drink the Diggs poison 10 times out of 10 in this spot.
The number 2 target in this offense in 2022 was Gabriel Davis as he garnered a 16% target share and had a high ADoT. Davis isn’t a huge volume guy as he had four and five targets in his games against the Jets last year, but with Gabe all it takes is one. He’s super boom or bust with his low target share and high Adot, but he draws a tough matchup in this spot as the Jets allowed the fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers as we mentioned above. He makes for a solid GPP play for his ability to crush in one play, but everyone knows that’s his game so he often ends up overowned in GPPs because everyone is chasing that ceiling game from the high ADoT receiver.
Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox will be operating as the tight ends in this spot, with Kincaid likely seeing snaps out of the slot and Knox playing more in line. With their roles being different from each other, they can be used together in lineups. This will probably be uncommon as people hate playing two guys with the same position label on the same team, so it’s kind of a galaxy brain move in GPPs. The Jets were susceptible to tight ends last season as they allowed the highest catch percentage in the league to opposing TEs and the 9th most fantasy points to the position. Kincaid ran the 3rd most routes with Allen in the preseason and should have a solid role in this offense. He makes for our favorite mid range play on this slate as we think people are used to doubting rookie tight ends, but as we’ve already seen this year that’s an overblown narrative. He’s got plenty of upside in this Week 1 game. Knox is a touchdown or bust play on this slate as his volume isn’t high, but he does earn targets in the red zone. With likely lower ownership on this slate, Dawson makes for a decent GPP option, but he will likely need a touchdown to be optimal and his fair price TD odds are about +350, so it’s a thin play for DFS. We’d really only use him if you’re building multiple lineups.
The running backs for the Bills consist of James Cook, Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. We think Cook is the guy here as he has proven to be the most explosive back in this group and is great in the passing game as well. Cook averaged 6.2 yards per touch last season as well as leading the league in percentage of targets among running backs. The RBs do have a tough matchup here as the Jets ranked 6th in run defense, but with Cook being so involved in the passing game we like him much better than the other guys. Harris and Murray are fighting for time behind Cook, with Harris probably having an edge over Murray but we aren’t super high on either of these guys. We prefer the options priced around both of them and we don’t think the reward is worth the risk when it comes to guessing on their workloads. Cook is one of our favorite plays on the slate and is a viable captain in GPP builds.
Moving over to the Jets, Aaron Rodgers will be playing his first game for the Jets and draws a solid matchup here as Buffalo allowed the 10th most passing points to quarterbacks. Rodgers struggled last season averaging a career low 14.1 fantasy points per game, but with a new start and great weapons in New York we like this spot for him. Aaron makes for a solid play in the flex or a lower owned play in captain paired with some of his pass catchers. He can certainly be faded if you think his last season struggles continue, but with a better team and better weapons we like Rodgers to bounce back and return to his former self.
Garrett Wilson draws a great matchup here as the Bills allowed the 8th most points to wide receivers in 2022 and will see an increase in quarterback efficiency going from the trio of Wilson, Flacco, and White up to Aaron Rodgers. Garrett still managed to have a great season with terrible quarterbacks, so with the upgrade to Rodgers we think Garrett carries massive upside in this spot. With ownership pretty spread out on this slate, Wilson makes for a great option at captain as well as flex. If playing Wilson at captain, Rodgers can certainly be in the flex, but it’s not a must. A unique way to attack this slate could be playing Garrett at captain without Rodgers, as Wilson could get there on volume and yards alone without Rodgers performing very well. It’s possible this offense funnels heavily through Wilson, and using a captain WR without his QB is a mental block for most GPP players as they know the math tells them they should usually be playing the quarterback with their wide receiver. We know that in certain cases it is viable to play a WR at captain without their quarterback, and we believe this could be one of them since Rodgers possesses no rushing upside and might funnel heavily to his WR1. Guys like Garrett Wilson, Keenan Allen and Amon Ra St Brown are the type of guys who can get there with volume while their QB doesn’t post a score that you absolutely need.
Allen Lazard will be coming over from Green Bay to join Rodgers in this new look Jets offense. This is a great matchup for the Jets receivers as the Bills defense has been susceptible to the pass allowing the 8th most fantasy points to wide receivers in 2022. Lazard carried almost a 13 yard ADoT last season and flashed big play ability. With the familiarity he already has with Rodgers we think he will be a big part of this offense tonight for the Jets. A lot of touts around the industry are down on Lazard in this offense, and this could be a perfect time to zig while the field zags. We like Lazard a lot tonight and think he makes for a great flex play.
Randall Cobb and Mecole Hardman will be mixing in for the wide receiver 3 spot in this offense with Cobb carrying the short possession role and Hardman being mixed in as a gadget player. Cobb seemingly took the WR3 job from Hardman in preseason, but the Jets have also said they will mix in Hardman so it’s hard to know what to expect here. We don’t love either of these guys tonight as we think the passing attack will revolve around Wilson and Lazard, but either play is viable in GPPs at lower ownership with a slight lean to Cobb for his rapport with Rodgers.
The running backs for the Jets consist of Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall. Both of these guys have a solid matchup as the Bills allowed the most yards after contact to running backs and ranked as the 25th best run defense. We lean Dalvin in this spot even though we love Breece Hall because his workload is expected to be limited and we believe Breece will be over owned for the amount of touches he’ll get. So many people like to “bet on talent” and will just play Breece despite the reports about a limited workload. We’ve also seen guys really lack burst after an offseason surgery like he had, so we see no reason to play him unless he’s crazy low owned, which he won’t be. Dalvin should be the back getting more work and he’s a solid play as he was top 12 in points per touch last season and is in a good matchup here against this Buffalo defense. Cook has also been used in the passing game throughout his career and Rodgers showed he was willing to throw to Aaron Jones in Green Bay quite often, so Dalvin could garner some targets in this spot as well. I honestly don’t know why people are acting like Dalvin is washed up garbage and it might be worth using him if he’s only gonna be around 30% owned. That feels low to me when Rodgers RBs have always been valuable. He’s not a lock but he’s a very solid play.
Tyler Conklin and CJ Uzomah will operate as the tight ends in this New York offense. Rodgers does like to target his tight ends in the red zone but the Bills were the 4th best at defending the tight end position last year. Both of these guys are touchdown dependent options and we aren’t high on either of them tonight with much better options in their price ranges. If siding with one we would go with Conklin, as he should be a much bigger part of this offense and Rodgers did show a tendency to target tight ends in the red zone. The upside exists but they aren’t the best plays.
Conclusion: This is a fun slate where our favorite play is a minimum priced starting wide receiver that a lot of people are going to talk themselves off using. If we get Harty anything less than 40% owned I’d consider it a big win, and I actually think we will get him a lot lower than that. Our favorite captain option is Garrett Wilson, as we expect Rodgers to funnel targets to his #1 receiver, and we think people are sleeping on how absurdly good Wilson really is after he played with such bad QBs all last year. We don’t mind going with either QB at captain either, or either of the Cook brothers. Using Wilson at captain without Rodgers is viable, which is rare on a showdown slate, but that doesn’t mean you need to do it.