Dominators (at least 2): Hamlin, Truex, Bell, Elliott, Logano, Larson, Buescher, Berry
Place Differential: Keselowski, Chastain, Briscoe. Suarez, Nemechek, Jones, Haley, Stenhouse, Preece
After a two week hiatus, NASCAR is back! This week the Cup Series will take their talents to Richmond, which is a shorter track where we will have 400 laps, so dominator points will be crucial. This week, NASCAR decided to give teams two different types of tires, a primary tire and an option tire. The option tire is likely to be faster, but will wear off quicker. In practice, teams were mainly just toying around with their setups and running different tires, so practice is not as much of a reliable source of identifying the best cars. Let’s dig in.
Starting on the pole is Denny Hamlin, and he is a lock in cash games and he is a very tough fade in GPPs. Hamlin is going to be tough to beat, and even if does not bring home a trophy, he likely will dominate a large portion of the race. He is the clear cut optimal dominator choice to start your lineups.
After Hamlin, our next two favorite dominators are Martin Truex and Christopher Bell. Truex will roll off second and is great at short flat tracks. He is also very good at managing tires and adjusting to changing track conditions. Truex is also going to be chalky along with Hamlin, but has great dominator potential nonetheless. Bell is often forgotten about since he usually succeeds at the same tracks as his more popular teammates, but he is an elite dominator choice tonight in GPPs. He is not going to be very low owned, but we still expect him to see about half the ownership of Truex. Bell actually ranks #1 at short flat tracks this season. The odds for this race currently stand: Hamlin +350, Truex +400, Bell +400. At similar odds to Hamlin and Truex, we love being overweight on Bell.
After the Toyota trio, that leaves us with Elliott and Logano in our tier two category of dominators. Elliott seems to have unloaded a fast racecar and ranks third at short flat tracks this season. At a cheaper price than the Toyota’s above, Elliott is definitely viable in GPPs. Logano is good at short flat tracks and has an average finish of 7th at Richmond in the Next-Gen era. The only other time we have tested these option tires were at North Wilkesboro, where Logano led the entire race. Logano should be comfortable on these tires and is another GPP dominator choice for your lineups.
Other drivers you can consider for dominators but are a tier below all the above drivers are: Kyle Larson, Josh Berry, and Chris Buescher. Larson is a fine play today but he still projects to garner high ownership and we need to prioritize dominator points. It is possible he dominates, but I view it as less likely than we would want if we played him at that ownership. Berry and Buescher are deep GPP guys and make more sense in lineups where you pay up for the PD studs (Larson, Keselowski).
Moving onto place differential, we have Brad Keselowski. Brad is a great cash game play and is viable in GPPs. Just make sure you still have at least two dominators in your lineups if you decide to force in Brad K.
Ross Chastain will roll off 22nd and is way too cheap. He had great practice times on both tires and should move forward throughout the race. Ross typically is either very good or very bad at short flat tracks, but we like chasing one of those really good outings tonight in GPPs.
Chase Briscoe is definitely call-out worthy as he is strong at short flat tracks. SHR in general seems to only be able to hit on short flats. At a cheap price tag, and a deep starting position, Briscoe is elite in cash and GPPs.`
Some more value drivers we have interest include: Daniel Suarez, John Hunter Nemecheck, Erik Jones, Justin Haley, Ricky Stenhouse, and Ryan Preece.
I will be in Discord up until lock to answer any questions. Best of luck!