Optimal: SVG, Byron, Elliott, Chastain, Hamlin, Wallace, Cindric, Jones, Stenhouse
GPP: Gibbs, Allmendinger, Blaney, Brown, Haley, Gilliland, Smith, Ty Dillon
We head to the streets of Chicago for a wild-card weekend that opens the second half of the 2025 Cup Series season. This is the kind of race where chaos looms large — not just because of the tight street layout, but because once again, weather could completely change the script. Rain chances are creeping toward 60% late in the event, and with strategy windows already razor thin, it wouldn’t take much to shake up the leaderboard.
From a DFS perspective, this isn’t a week to get heavy on dominator hunting. With just 75 laps on the table, we’re talking about a max of 50 total dominator points — meaning raw finishing position and place differential will drive optimal builds.
One thing to keep in mind: four elite drivers didn’t lay down a qualifying lap — Bubba Wallace, Chase Elliott, William Byron, and Denny Hamlin. Three of those guys showed serious speed in practice. The fourth? Hamlin had an engine issue before ever reaching full speed. Because of this, cash games turn into a glorified 2v2, and you’re basically forced into playing all four of those drivers unless you want to get cute and hope one fails. That’s a dangerous game with these names. I’d suggest fading cash games altogether this week and going tournament-only.
Ross Chastain stands out as an ideal mid-range core. He ran early in practice when the track was slower, but his times still held up. That’s usually a sign of under-the-hood speed. Chastain has been hit or miss on road courses, but his ceiling is real, especially on street layouts where chaos plays into his aggressive style. If this race trends toward mayhem — and it might — Ross could be a slate-breaker with the ability to pick through the mess and contend.
A.J. Allmendinger is an obvious candidate if you’re building with finishing upside in mind. He starts 16th, which gives him room to climb, and his team has every reason to flip stages and gamble on track position. He’s 59 points outside the playoff cut, so they’ll be racing for the win — not for points. That means we can expect aggressive strategy, especially if Shane van Gisbergen stays out to chase stage points. Allmendinger is one of the best in the garage when it comes to capitalizing on that chaos, and he could find himself in the top 5 when it counts.
Zane Smith is probably one of my favorite low-end plays on the slate, especially considering where ownership projections are heading. His practice speeds were quietly solid, and he’s had plenty of respectable showings on road courses across all three national series. While guys like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Erik Jones will be more popular in this price range, Smith brings a higher ceiling with a lower tag. I’d rather be early on him than chase the field’s chalky comfort.
If you need a pivot off Zane or want to double-down on low-owned flyers, Cole Custer deserves a mention. He starts 23rd and carries a very similar range of outcomes to Stenhouse and Jones, but he’s getting left behind in projections and roster rates. That’s exactly the kind of leverage we should be looking for in a race like this.
This is the kind of slate where stacking all four of the non-qualifiers is going to be the default move. They’re all strong plays, but if you want to win a large-field GPP, you can’t just ride the chalk and hope it hits. That doesn’t mean fade all four — it means building smart leverage into the rest of your lineup. Maybe it’s being early on Zane. Maybe it’s betting on Ross to score a top 5 and beat a couple of the obvious plays at the back. Maybe it’s grabbing an Allmendinger + SVG combo and hoping strategy flips the whole grid in your favor at the end.