Dominators (at least 2): Hamlin, Larson, Truex, Bell, Reddick, Chastain, Blaney, Elliott (GPP)
Place Differential: Busch, Wallace, Logano (cash), Gragson (GPP), Jones, Nemechek, Hemric, Haley, Lajoie (GPP)
NASCAR heads to music city as the Cup Series drivers will tackle Nashville Superspeedway. Nashville is a very unique track, but when factoring its concrete finish, banking, and the tire combination that will be used, it is most comparable to Las Vegas, Kansas, and Dover. We also finally were able to get a full practice and qualifying session, so we have a full plethora of resources to predict how this race will go. Let’s get started.
The race favorite Denny Hamlin will start from the pole, and is your #1 option to lead laps in the early going. Denny checks all the boxes, from track history, similar track performance, and qualifying speed. Denny stated after qualifying that he does not like to call his shots, but that he is feeling pretty good about this one. He will likely be the chalkiest driver on the slate, but this is good chalk to eat. After Denny, we have Kyle Larson starting a few spots back in 5th. Larson has very similar odds to Hamlin, and is similarly priced. Larson is always a great play, but he was not a top car in practice. My first instinct here was that Larson would be a great GPP play, since everyone will play Hamlin. Unfortunately, pricing this week is very soft and it is very easy to play both of them. For this reason, we expect Larson to still carry high ownership. This is the optimal cash duo, but we can differentiate in GPPs.
Martin Truex seems to be a better play in all formats than Larson. Truex was very fast in practice and had one of the best cars here last year. Starting all the way back in 17th, he gives us PD upside with a chance to dominate. It is hard to ignore Truex’s upside, making him a fantastic play in all formats, despite high projected ownership.
As far as other dominators go, we prefer, in order: Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott.
Bell will start 3rd, and while he is expected to have a strong car, he has a tough path to being optimal in lineups with Hamlin, due to them both competing for the early laps led. In non-Hamlin lineups, Bell is our preferred early dominator.
Reddick is an interesting topic today, as based on similar track performance, we expected him to be strong this week. However, practice was a struggle and it consisted of him coming down pit road numerous times to make adjustments to the car. He then followed up practice with a strong qualifying performance, which has him rolling off 6th. So maybe the team figured something out… but that is just a guessing game. Reddick is a GPP play for us, since his practice performance will decrease his ownership, but there is a chance his team has made the proper adjustments on his car to get to the front.
Chastain and Blaney are in similar spots, as they will start 20th and 18th, but were some of the top cars in practice. Additionally, Chastain won the race here last year, which gives him the slight edge over Blaney, who struggled. Both of these guys are solid options in all formats.
Elliott is sort of a deep GPP play for us only, but he has consistently ran up near the front in every race this year. He had a top 5 car at Nashville last year and has performed well at all similar tracks this year. His starting position is in the middle of the Hamlin/Larson duo and the Truex/Blaney/Chastain trio, meaning Elliott will be a very uncommon click today by most people. We like mixing him in your large field GPP entries.
As we move onto place differential, we want you to prepare yourself before reading on. If you are feeling sick on your stomach, you may want to skip this first part… Ok, all jokes aside, one of the top PD plays is Kyle Busch. We get it, he has been AWFUL of late, but he is one of the best drivers of all time and has a great crew chief on the box. He was strong here last year and in similar tracks this year, he has finished top 15 in four of those five. A top 15 finish here would be enough to pay off his salary. He is hard to trust in cash games nowadays, but he is a fine tournament play.
Bubba Wallace will roll off 24th and topped his group in practice. He appears to be a very strong choice in all formats. He is a safe play with upside, and the real only reason to fade him would be to avoid the ownership, as he will be chalky.
Joey Logano qualified way back in 26th, and is a very safe play. However he has struggled at similar track types this year and was not very good here last year. He is a fine cash play but he likely is going to need a strategy play to earn track position in order to really produce a high ceiling today. We can look elsewhere in GPPs.
An interesting pivot off the chalky Wallace and Logano is Noah Gragson. Gragson should be very low owned, but we were able to identify some interesting tidbits on Gragson. He has finished top 10 at the three most comparable tracks this year, and if you look at tire fall-off in practice, Gragson had one of the lowest fall-offs in the field. In a race where long-runs are likely, a good long run car is crucial to have. His overall practice speed was not great, which is keeping his ownership down, but we still believe he is an elite contrarian play in GPPs.
As far as cheap value goes, we do not need to dip too low with the soft pricing this week. Our top options would be the Legacy Motor Club duo of Erik Jones and John Hunter-Nemechek. Their equipment alone should be good enough to help them improve upon their starting position. Some pivots off them though would be Daniel Hemric, Justin Haley, and Corey Lajoie.