Dominators (at least 2): Bell, Truex, Hamlin, Blaney, Elliott, Logano, Keselowski (deep GPP)
Place Differential: Larson (cash), Busch, Wallace, Gragson, Briscoe, Cindric, McDowell, Preece, Haley
NASCAR heads to New Hampshire this week, which is a short flat track that will use the same tire compound as last week’s race at Iowa. Practice and qualifying were unfortunately rained out, and there is rain in the forecast for race day as well. We will rely on past New Hampshire performance and similar track stats to narrow down our player pool. Let’s hit the gas and dive in!
The favorites to win here today are the Joe Gibbs Racing combo of Martin Truex and Christopher Bell. Truex has been the fastest car in every segment of each of the past two races here. He should run up front all day and is a prime candidate to lead laps here today. Bell, on the other hand, circles this race on his calendar every year, as he has never lost here in the Xfinity Series (including a win yesterday), and has a win here in the Cup series. When looking at short flat track speed rankings, Bell ranks 1st in 2024, while Truex ranks 7th. However, Truex’s performance is interesting because of the four short flat tracks we have raced at this year, his speed ranks are 1st, 2nd, 18th, and 18th. The slower performances from Truex were the two most recent races, so with slight signs of struggles from Truex of late, we slightly lean toward Bell here today. Both are strong options and you can even use both of them if you are able.
Chase Elliott will start on the pole, and should he get out in clean air, he could lead a lot of laps in this first stage. Hendrick Motorsports has struggled at New Hampshire, but clean air is so key that Elliott has upside starting from the pole. Starting outside of him on the front row will be Ryan Blaney. Blaney and the rest of the Fords have come alive lately and have been super fast. Blaney ranks 2nd in short flat track speed this season and is coming off a win at Iowa which used the same tire compound as we will use today. Blaney and Elliott are two of our favorite GPP plays this week.
Blaney’s teammate Joey Logano will start a few spots behind him but is also a very strong option here today. Logano is always a threat on short tracks and our projections are very keen on him today. Out of the top 10 drivers from a pt/$ perspective, Logano projects for the lowest ownership out of the group. Over the last three short flat track races, Logano leads the series with a 4.3 average finish and ranks 3rd in total speed. Most people will skip over Logano at his starting position, but we believe he is a very strong play.
We cannot forget about Denny Hamlin. While his JGR teammates are slightly better options, Denny can bust any slate wide open and dominate a race. He also has some PD upside today, making him an interesting tournament option. He has been elite on short tracks this season, until last week when the #11 team just completely missed the setup. Denny complained of barely being able to turn the car all race. We expect Denny and his teammate to bounce back here today. Bell and Truex are better plays on paper, but ownership will reflect that. Hamlin is a boom-or-bust option here today that could pay off in a huge way if his team has his car ready to compete.
As we move onto our top-place differential plays, we want to address Kyle Larson. Larson will start 19th and is a great play in cash. He is the most talented driver in the field, so him dominating any race is in the realm of possibilities. However, we see the most likely outcome for Larson today is a solid top 10, maybe even top 5 finish, but with no laps lead. When we are building our GPP lineups, we want to target dominators in the expensive tier of drivers, so we are not as high on Larson in GPPs, where he is expected to be chalky.
Kyle Busch will roll off 30th, and is one of our favorite plays to just plug in and forget about it. He has looked much better at Gateway and Iowa (the two most recent short flat tracks), after dreaded performances at Richmond and Phoenix earlier this year. $7.7k on DK may be the cheapest we will ever see Kyle Busch, and we are locking him in today.
Bubba Wallace, Noah Gragson, and Chase Briscoe will all start mid-pack and are some of our favorite options. All three of these drivers have been inconsistent on short flat tracks, but have shown some promising flashes. Bubba ranked 4th in total speed at Richmond, Gragson ran top 10 at Richmond and Phoenix, and Briscoe looked very good in practice last week at Iowa, had a strong first stage, and then his pit crew struggled which put him back in traffic all race. All three make a lot of sense today, with Bubba being our slight favorite, but he will also be the highest owned of the trio.
With no practice this week, deciding on our favorite value options is very tough. Austin Cindric is priced up just a tad, but we are high on his Penske Racing teammates today, so he is a fine option starting 29th. Going down a little cheaper, Ryan Preece is a viable option, as Stewart-Hass Racing always performs the best on short flat tracks, and he has shown top-20 potential on similar tracks this season. Justin Haley has been outstanding this year in terrible equipment, and he has finishes of 13th and 9th at the last two comparable tracks. Haley just keeps grinding away at good finishes, and we like him again today. Lastly, Michael McDowell is another driver who has the upside to move up 8-10 spots in this race. We prefer Cindric to McDowell, but McDowell is fine if you have to settle for him.
Erik Jones is a driver that starts very deep and is projected to be the chalkiest of the cheap options. However, his speed rankings at short flat tracks this year are 21, 21, 31, and 33. The 31st and 33rd performances are also the two most recent races. We would rather take shots at other low-owned drivers in this cheap range than play Jones who is going to be chalky.