CPT/MVP: Assad (Optimal), Severino (Optimal), Happ (GPP), Swanson (GPP)
Flex: Bellinger (GPP), Alonso (GPP), Lindor, Nimmo, Martinez (GPP), Morel (GPP), Vientos, Busch, Bader, Stewart
Relievers: Diaz, Ottavino, Garrett, Neris
Tonight features a matchup between the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs for this Sunday’s edition of Sunday Night Baseball. Like the last time we covered one of these slates, the starting pitchers are the overwhelmingly best plays to slot into your CPT/MVP spots. The weather is going to aid them significantly with the wind blowing in at Wrigley this evening, which is a marked turn from how it has been blowing out for the past week or so. With that being said, it would differentiate you significantly to slot in a bat in the top spot if you were feeling up for the risk.
The Cubs are going to be sending Javier Assad to the mound to take on the New York Mets. Ownership in the CPT/MVP spot splits essentially right down the middle with the two starters picking up 49% and 48% exposure respectively when we build 100 lineups with our projections. The Mets have been hitting the ball decently of late but Assad has been quite solid in his own right. He has posted 10+ fantasy points in 12 of his 15 starts this season, which gives him a very high floor here. On the year, lefties have a 26.8% K rate against him and righties have a 19.9% K rate. Lefties have a .159 xISO/.298 xwOBA and righties have a .171/.347 line. Both of these are solid figures on the surface. However, the lefties do have a .240/.381 line off his sinker and a .313/.426 line off the cutter. He throws those two pitches a combined 44% of the time to them so targeting lefties that can hit them well would be a wise choice. Righties have a .411/.383 line off his slider and a .347/.502 line off the cutter and he throws those two pitches a combined 40% of the time to them. He is a targetable arm with these pitches as a result. Our favorite Mets would include Lindor (.367 xwOBA), Nimmo (.209/.344), Stewart (.281/.339), Vientos (.416/.493), and Bader (.248/.515). Ironically, it is their big bats that don’t grade out well against this pitch mix. If you do end up captaining the pitchers, it is very hard to mix in the Alonsos and Martinezes of the world into your lineups. Our favorite expensive bats here would be Lindor and Nimmo and then you can mix in the cheaper options. As a result, Alonso and Martinez are GPP plays only in the hopes that they run into one. They will be low-owned and have homer potential.
The Mets will be trotting Luis Severino out to the mound. As mentioned, we have a bit of a tough time deciding between him and Assad in the CPT/MVP spot. The reasons why are pretty obvious when looking at the numbers. Severino has the lower K upside as he has just a 15.4% K rate to lefties and a 19.3% mark to righties. He seems less likely to give up a ton of power as the only pitch that gets hammered that he throws is the sinker to lefties (.249/.386). The Cubs are projected to start just four lefties here and only two of them hammer righty sinkers. Busch (.196/.392) and Happ (.332/.461) are the two best options from the Cubs by a wide margin in this spot. We love the pitch value alignment for Happ and think he could make for a strong large-field GPP captain option if you did want to skew in that direction. Both Bellinger and Morel have terrible pitch values and should only be used in GPPs for homer-hunting like both Alonso and Martinez. Pete Crow-Armstrong will most likely be very popular since he will be batting from the left side of the plate against Severino and is one of the cheapest projected starters. However, he has horrendous pitch value alignment. Instead, we would rather pivot to Dansby Swanson. The sinker is the pitch that righties have the most success on from Severino this season with a mediocre .182/.323 line. There is some power to be had there though and Dansby hammers righty sinkers with a .302/.411 line against them. He makes for a very strong flex option that can even be captained in the hopes that he runs into one.
What is wild is that there were zero of the 100 lineups that were built that did not have both of these arms in the lineups together. That tells us a couple of things. It will be extremely, extremely uncommon to fade one of them. Secondly, most lineups are going to look the same when it comes to the bats they have to slide in due to the expensive nature of these two arms. Because of that, we received very limited exposure to most of the big bats as you cannot fit any of them in your lineup if you captain one of the two pitchers and play the other one in a flex spot. As expected, this has led to a TON of projected ownership flocking to the cheaper options that don’t look good to begin with. Both pitchers have routes where they may not pan out, although the weather does not look like it will be doing the offense any favors. Playing some of the bigger bats will automatically differentiate your lineup significantly. Finally, our lean is to side with Assad if choosing between the two of them as he has more K upside in this spot and, therefore, the higher ceiling.
Before wrapping things up, we wanted to call out the best bullpen arms to consider in this spot for value. In yesterday’s 8-1 drudging, neither team had to heavily rely on their bullpens. Taillon threw 7 strong innings and the Mets deployed Houser for 54 pitches to mop things up after Megill was pounded early. This means that the higher-leverage arms should all be available in this spot. We love the upside of Diaz, Ottavino, Garrett, and Neris in this spot for value as a result. Best of luck tonight!