Top Plays – Larson, Allmendinger, Van Gisbergen (SVG),Logano, Blaney, McDowell, Keselowski, Buescher, Bowman, Briscoe, Jones, Gragson
GPP/Dominator – Reddick, Gibbs, Byron, Chastain, Bell
Super GPP – Cindric, Kobayashi, Suarez, Truex
Today’s write up will be a little different than normal. This is the first road course of the year as NASCAR heads to the Circuit of the Americas, more commonly known as COTA. COTA is a 3.41 mile track with 20 turns that test drivers in a completely different skill set than traditional round track racing does. There are some guys who always do really well at these types of tracks and guys who don’t. This usually gives us a pretty good idea of who will be running up near the front. The problem is the better guys usually qualify well so don’t have a lot of PD, and since the track is so big there are less laps and so less Dom points to be had. Builds are going to look more like restrictor plate races builds today as PD is the safest way of scoring. We also have to take into account that stage breaks have returned this year, so some teams will stay out for points while some will pit early to have better track position. There have also been numerous penalties called this weekend on drivers for “cutting the track” which basically means they are going out of bounds. SVG crossed the line in 2nd place yesterday’s xfinity race but was given a penalty and so is scored as finishing 27th. The same thing could happen today.
When building for tournaments today, we recommend using one of the potential dominators. There are very few dominator points available, so two dominator lineups have a very narrow path to being optimal. The best strategy is to use one of them and hope they lead close to the whole race. Our favorites to be the sole dominator today are Ty Gibbs, and Tyler Reddick. Gibbs looks to have the best car pre race, and Reddick is considered by many to be the best road course driver of the next-gen era. William Byron is also a viable option starting from the pole, but holding off Gibbs and Reddick will be a tall task. Some super GPP options as potential dominators are Ross Chastain and Christopher Bell. They both have good history on road courses, but the cars ahead of them are very strong this week, so overtaking them will be difficult. We would only recommend Chastain and Bell in large field GPPs where you are making multiple lines. Again, we only like using ONE of these potential dominators in your lineup.
After you decide on your dominator, you want to surround him with guys that offer place differential and high finish upside. Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Michael Mcdowell all look like solid options. This Ford trio showed good pace in practice, they just did not have a great qualifying effort. Logano actually ran a top 15 lap but he barely cut one of the corners so his lap did not count. Blaney and Logano are not great road course drivers, but they are talented drivers in general and in very good equipment. Mcdowell on the other hand is a great road course driver and is one of the best plays on the slate. He has the perfect combination of place differential and finishing position upside. Next we have a few guys who start more mid pack, but ultimately have race winning upside. Kyle Larson, Shane Van Gisbergen, AJ Allmendinger, Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher and Alex Bowman all ring the bell for us. They are all viable and you are going to want to include at least 1-2 of these guys in your lines. SVG is currently projecting to be only around 20% owned, and I will personally be overweight if that is the case. Buescher and Bowman are both cheaper than the rest, so their ownership is likely to creep up because of how easily they fit in lines. They are great plays for sure, but they will be a little chalky just because of their cheap price tag. A pivot off of them that we love is Chase Briscoe. Briscoe starts way back in 32nd, so he ultimately has a higher ceiling than Bowman and Buescher as well. He has decent road course history and showed top 15 practice speed.
Lastly, we want to address a few drivers who are noteworthy on this slate. Chase Elliott is one of the best road course drivers in the series, but he starts 9th, which lacks PD upside, and will be difficult to dominate over the likes of Reddick, Gibbs, Byron, etc. He is very expensive because of his road course prowess, but he has a very slim path to being optimal today. Noah Gragson and Erik Jones start all the way in the back today, and are very safe options. We prefer Gragson as he showed good speed in practice and has top 20 upside, and Jones is more of just a safe play that does not have a ton of upside.