High priced: Larson, Byron, Hamlin, Busch,
Mid range: Chastain, Reddick, Bowman, Keselowski
Value: Smith, Gragson, Preece, Hemric
GPP: Blaney, Bell, Wallace, Truex
Today we head out west to Las Vegas for the Pennzoil 400. This race will be completely different from the first two races of the year. Both of those races were drafting races where we worried almost solely on place differential upside for the bulk of scoring in our lineups. Today we play drivers that are fast. We look at practice speeds and past track history on this track type.
The conversation starts around Kyle Larson this week. He was the betting favorite going into the week based on his performance here last year. Then he came into practice and topped the 5-10-15-20 lap speed charts. Simply put, Kyle looks like the man to beat here today. In cash he should be a lock as the highest chance to get Dom points and in GPPs you are taking a big risk if you fade him as your lineups could be dead on arrival if he comes out and puts it on everybody like he has been known to do.
Our next favorite Dom play today is William Byron. He is Larson’s teammate at Hendrick Motorsports, and he could almost be considered a 1b to him. He came out and was 2nd in the 5-10-15-20 lap charts. While all the talk was about Ford and Toyota new body styles, it looks like Chevy came to play today.
While it would make sense to stack these 2 in lineups, Denny Hamlin threw a wrench into things. Denny looked completely off when they unloaded out of the truck this week. His practice numbers were underwhelming to put it nicely, and you could say down right bad for a driver of this caliber. This is why he qualified all the way back in 28th. When looking at just those numbers and his sky high price tag, it would be easy to think he is a fade. However, Denny is an elite driver who has won here in the past and is very good at this track type. It is a long race and I think the team figures it out. I will be very surprised if Denny isn’t competing for a top 10 or better by the end of the day. This gives you an awesome amount of PD upside we don’t usually get here, but with Hamlin Larson and Byron being the highest priced three, it is very hard to make a lineup work with all 3 of them. You basically have to double punt the bottom. Kyle Busch is interesting for sort of the same reason as Hamlin, except he did show speed in practice but only qualified 21st. Kyle was 4th-4th-6th-6th on the speed charts but struggled on his qualifying lap. If he can get up there and compete for a top 5 today he will be an amazing play and cost 1k less than Hamlin. He becomes more interesting as a PD play when trying to pair Larson/Byron as well because of that price savings.
Getting your driver(s) in the cheap price range today will be vital. You will have to dip down here to get those Doms you want. If you nail your guys up top this will be where the top of the DFS leaderboard will be decided. Our favorite plays in the 6k and below range are Zane Smith, Noah Gragson, and Ryan Preece. Zane and Lajoie both had more speed than expected in practice this week. Spire Motorsports has expanded to a 3 car team this year and has a supposed alliance with Hendrick Motorsports. They also won the truck race here on Friday night. While we are skeptical how much this truly helps them, they all had speed in practice. Zane is only 5.7k and if he has top 15-20 speed like he showed in practice he will be an absolute smash play. Lajoie and Hocevar (Zane’s teammates) both had very good short run speed in practice, but start too high and are more expensive. Noah Gragson was 3rd in the 5 lap average but didn’t run any long runs. He also qualified back in the 30th position. While I don’t trust the speed, Noah is probably the most talented driver in the Stewart Haas stable at the moment and has a pretty solid PD upside. Finally, Preece had a single car accident in practice and will have to go to a backup car. He didn’t post a qualifying lap and will start 36th. This is a play 100% because of price and starting position. He should be able to compete for the top 20-25 today which could be optimal depending on how the other value plays do. The last feather in the cap of these 2 guys is that their teammate, Chase Briscoe, qualified 6th, which shows maybe the speed is more legitimate than we would otherwise think. Daniel Hemric would be as low we would go as a true punt today. He was one of the slowest in the field off the truck, however his equipment, price, and starting spot make him at least punt worthy. Just close your eyes and hold your breath when you click his name.
In the mid-range we are eyeing three guys who grade out as three of the better plays on the slate. Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain, and Alex Bowman all showed great speed and lack of fall off in practice. We would rank them 1. Reddick, 2. Chastain, and 3. Bowman, but we also expect ownership to go in that order as well. Reddick could potentially be a top 5 car today, as the Toyotas seem to have very little fall off in the long run, and Reddick is known for running a high line that seems to become quicker and quicker as the race goes on. Chastain has been a top 5 car here at Las Vegas over the past two races, and he looked quick in his practice run. He also ran a pretty short practice session, which tells us he is happy with his car. Bowman seems to get overlooked with his teammates being the class of the field most of the time. However, Bowman looks very strong this weekend and also finished third here last year. He has the upside to run up front with Larson and Byron. Lastly, we have Brad Keselowski. Keselowski was strong here last year, but he looked pretty slow in practice, and qualified poorly as well. We have seen Keselowski practice poorly in the past and still put on a strong showing, so he is still viable, but we prefer the other options before him,
Also in GPPs, we have some other dominator options that we think are great to pair with Larson or Byron. Martin Truex seems to be getting overlooked here today. He was fine in practice, but the biggest takeaway was he had very little fall off in the long run. Truex is a veteran who has always been known for conserving his car and getting better the longer he runs. He is a great GPP option as he is priced right above Reddick and Chastain, who will be very popular. He is a great pick to be a second dominator later in the race. Similar to Truex, we have Bubba Wallace. We expect Wallace to be strong in the long run as well, so we like him for the same reasons as Truex. Ryan Blaney is another option who could potentially be strong in the long run, as he had very little fall off in practice. The negative with Blaney is that he is priced very expensive, but if you can fit him, he is a strong option as well. Christopher Bell is a driver who stood out to most people all week until the cars hit the track. He was very strong here last year and challenged Larson for the win until the very end. He was pretty average in practice, so no one is really interested in him anymore. It is risky, but if his team can make the right adjustments, we could see him contend once again. The last guy to mention is Joey Logano. The only positive for Logano is that he starts on the pole so he does have the potential to lead some laps. However, we expect Larson or Byron to take the lead from him pretty early, so we do not have much interest in Logano.