Optimal Plays: Wembanyama (DK), Banchero (FD), Bridges, Quickley (FD), Vassell, Barrett, Miller (DK), Olynyk, Mann (DK), Nesmith (FD), Trent Jr (FD), G. Williams (DK), Micic
GPP Plays: Wembanyama (FD), Gilgeous-Alexander, Durant, Haliburton, Quickley (DK), Williams, Turner, Poeltl (DK), Nesmith (DK), T.Jones, Sochan, Gordon, Bertans
Top Game Stacks: CHA/TOR (Optimal), IND/SAS (GPP), OKC/PHX (DK GPP)
Pending Injury News: Mitchell, LeVert
This Sunday slate looks like it will be a wild one with one game featuring nearly all the ownership and several other potential injury spots to monitor as the slate develops. This certainly is not a set it and forget it kind of night, so make sure you stay close to Discord as the slate does develop!
We will start the breakdown off with the game with the known injury situations that is taking place between the Charlotte Hornets and Toronto Raptors. The game features a modest 223.5 total and a 7-point spread in favor of the Raptors. Pretty much all the projected ownership on this slate is flowing through this game environment with seven of the top nine highest-owned players on DK and five of the top six on FD. Starting with the Hornets, they will be without both Cody Martin and Seth Curry after they both left their last game against Philly early due to injuries. They also may be without Nick Richards who is currently questionable due to plantar fasciitis. This will open up additional minutes for a number of their role players in this one. The clear top option is Vasilije Micic who is the best point-per-dollar option on the slate by a wide margin on both sites. He is a better option on DK where he has separated himself on that point per dollar basis far more than on FD where he is $4.6k. Micic is projected for around 50% ownership on both sites and is in line to see just over 28 minutes in this spot. He played 28 in their last game and posted a 27 fantasy point effort. At his price point, he is a very strong option tonight. We would recommend starting your lineups with him in all formats. Miles Bridges and Brandon Miller are the two studs left standing for the Hornets and both look exceptional here. The Raptors already were abysmal defensively and are now going to get worse without Scottie Barnes. On the season, they rank 27th in DvP against both SFs and SGs giving both of them exceptionally strong upside here. They seem to carry similar 50+ point upside so our lean would be to play Miller given the massive price difference between the two of them. Grant Williams will slide into the starting lineup and looks like a very solid value option on DK in particular where he is priced below $5k. He doesn’t have a super high ceiling in this spot as he will cede usage to both Bridges and Miller. However, he is very safe and can be used in optimal formats. In GPPs, we would prefer to hunt for lower ownership and upside unless Richards were to miss. If he does, Williams would become an exceptional option as he would be locked into more work down low. The Hornets will be exceptionally thin in the backcourt so Tre Mann should be in line for solid minutes in this one. He has not flashed a ton of ceiling, mostly popping into the low 30s from time to time. He should be safe but can be faded in hopes of higher upside elsewhere. Lastly, we have Davis Bertans. He is currently projected for around 20 minutes with upside for more if Nick Richards does end up missing this one. He played 20 minutes their last time out and we have seen him pop off and get hot from long distance before. He is a very viable GPP option on both sites as a result.
On the other side of this game, the Raptors will now be without the services of Scottie Barnes for the foreseeable future after he broke his hand in their last game. The top option here is easily Kelly Olynyk who started the second half for Toronto after Barnes did not come out of the locker room. Charlotte ranks 25th in DvP against PFs on the season and Kelly posted 40 fantasy points in 28 minutes of action last time out. He always has been somebody who excels when given the minutes and has scored at around a 1.1 FPPM pace this season. With 28 projected minutes tonight, he is a very strong play in all formats. Immanuel Quickley has posted 40+ fantasy points in four of his last five, dropping 53.8 against the Mavs two games ago. Without Barnes in the fold, somebody is going to have to step up offensively for the Raps and he is in as good of a spot as any of them. Charlotte ranks 22nd in DvP against PGs on the season giving him ample upside here. He is projected to carry heavy ownership on FD and only half as much on DK at a $100 price point. We love him in GPP formats on DK and all formats on FD. RJ Barrett is the other option alongside Quickley that will need to step up for Toronto offensively. He looks like a great optimal play on both sites, however, in GPPs, we are less inclined to click his name as he has not shown any real ceiling since joining the team, maxing out at 42.8 fantasy points in his last fifteen games. Jakob Poeltl could absolutely maul tonight if Mark Williams misses this game. He is priced far too cheap on DK in particular and we have seen 50+ fantasy point upside in the past from him. We love him in GPPs as a result. Lastly, Gary Trent, Jr. looks like a solid value option on FD where he is priced down at just $4.9k. He will be relatively chalky though and is quite scoring dependant which is always risky for a chalk guy. Look to him in cash games in particular.
The game that will be on both sites that stands out will be contested between the Indiana Pacers and San Antonio Spurs. Right now this carries a very high 243 point total and a pretty manageable spread of 6.5 points. While there is some interest in this game, it’s not high enough for what we expect this environment to be: These two teams rank top 7 in the league in pace over their last ten games, and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency over the same stretch. Everything on the Spurs side right now starts with Victor Wembanyama. Every month something gets better with him, and this month it’s been his stocks. He was at 3.9 blocks a game in February, and 2 steals a game. He also raised his 3-point percentage to 41%, while still taking 5.3 a game. The stocks upside has made his price go very high on FD, but still carries the ability to be optimal, which is why he’s worth it. He’s still priced at $10.4k on DK, even though he’s broken 70 DK points in three of his last seven games. With both these teams not being interested in slowing down or playing much defense, he is the high-priced priority on the slate and honestly would have to reach over 50% projected ownership on DK and 38% projected ownership on FD before a fade was really in play. The other guy playing well for the Spurs is Devin Vassell. He’s become a higher volume 3-point shooter, getting up 6.6 a night in February, and connecting on 43% of them. He’s also increased his assists and rebounds average every month this year, which has helped him unlock a 50 DK point ceiling, which he reached in two of their last three games. He is also least likely to get “Pop’d”, as he’s consistently averaging minutes in the mid-30s and has reached the high-30s when he’s playing well. His price has come up, but that doesn’t seem to be scaring people off as he’s projected to be the most popular Spur on both sites, but for good reason. This is an environment he should do very well in. Champagnie will be out for the Spurs tonight, and it looks like Keldon Johnson will slide in to start. Even if he doesn’t, he is coming off back-to-back games over 30 minutes after getting Pop’d himself. He had a disappointing game last time out, but this is a great spot for him as well. Tre Jones and Jeremy Sochan would be playable as well with this total. Jones has been a beneficiary of Wemby and Vassell playing better, averaging 7.2 assists in his last five games while scoring in double digits in four of those games. He is playable on both sites but would be preferred on FD. Sochan is what we look for in a GPP play, a she can score 40 fantasy points at a reasonable price tag, even if his floor can be scary. This is the kind of game we prefer taking a shot on him, with lower ownership projected and an environment to reach his ceiling. He is preferred on DK to FD, but like Jones, can be considered on both sites. For Indiana, Tyrese Haliburton has been in a slump lately, capped off by his 0 points, 3 assists outing in his last game. This is a great “get right” spot for him, as San Antonio is not only last in the league against point guards, but the Spurs vs. point guards is the 145th defense against position ranking in the entire league, and there are 150 total ranked positions. Myles Turner has a great matchup as well, with San Antonio coming in 26th against centers. Aaron Nesmith returned from injury last game. His 21 minutes are a bit misleading, as he never came back in the 4th quarter when the game got out of hand. He is $400 cheaper on FD and is optimal there, but he’s drawing very little projected ownership on DK and could be a great piece of a game stack. Pascal Siakam has had a very consistent role with Indiana, but he hasn’t shown as much of a ceiling as we’d like. He did hit 49.75 and 50.25 DK points in two of his last three games, so we know that it is there, but in general, there are better options for GPPs.
The last game of the night is a DK-only affair, between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns. This game sits with a healthy 232.5 total, and another modest spread at 5.5. On the Phoenix side, they have already announced Devin Booker is out with the ankle injury sustained last night. With him not playing, we’ve seen Kevin Durant have his biggest games. He sees a +6.8% bump in usage rate, to a huge 35.15%. Another reason for Durant’s boost is Bradley Beal is still coming back from injury. He played fairly well in 20 minutes last night before getting ejected, but on a back-to-back, it would be surprising for him to see a ton of minutes tonight. Eric Gordon is expected back tonight, and we anticipate him stepping into a large role tonight with their injury situation. He is $700 cheaper than Royce O’Neale, and while O’Neale has had two great games in a row, his role will probably be cut down tonight. He only played 11 minutes yesterday before Beal’s ejection and Nurkic not returning to the 2nd half, and we anticipate Gordon’s return plus a few more minutes for Beal will make O’Neale’s minutes fairly uncertain, and his price is still elevated at $5.3k. Speaking of Jusuf Nurkic, he had 30.5 DK points in the 1st half before exiting yesterday. We know Oklahoma City’s only real weakness is their lack of size, so this is a matchup that looks very good for him. On the OKC side, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been on another planet lately. He’s scored 30 points or more in seven straight games. He has been under 50 DK points his last two, with only 3 assists each game, but the opportunity has been there with 8 and 9 potential assists in those two games, so the opportunity for his ceiling hasn’t gone anywhere. Jalen Williams has also been scoring well, with at least 22 points in his last three games, and this is a good environment for him to continue that streak. Chet Holmgren has seen his price rise to $8k with his stretch of great play as well, and his ceiling starts getting a little more questionable at that price. He still can hit, but there are enough center options on this slate, you don’t need to prioritize him.