Dominators: Larson (Optimal), Reddick (Optimal), Gibbs (GPP), Hamlin (GPP), Wallace (GPP), Chastain (Deep GPP)
Place Differential: Busch, Elliott, Logano, Keslowski, Suarez, Stenhouse, Berry, Hemric
The optimal start to your lineups is simply just locking in Kyle Larson. Larson qualified on the pole and posted top of the board practice times to go with it. He is without a doubt the best driver on 1.5 mile tracks and ranks #1 in average speed at Texas in the next-gen era. Larson is a stone cold lock in cash games, and the majority of your tournament lineups should include him as well. The next cash game lock is Kyle Busch. Busch wrecked in practice and was unable to qualify, so he will start 35th. He will be massive chalk but is as safe as it comes and is very hard to fade. The difference here versus the last two weeks where Christopher Bell was in this situation and we faded, is that we were forced to jam in all the top studs that started near the front to secure the loads of short track dominator points available. We still need dominator points this week, but there are less to be had. We recommend 2 dominators this week in your lineups, and it seems to be easy to fit Busch in while doing that. He is a tough fade, but anything can happen to him as he works his way through the field. Larson and Busch should start your cash game lineups, and we recommend them in tournaments as well. The chances of them being optimal are much higher than anyone else. You will definitely need to get unique with the rest of your lineup, but we have some ways that we like to do that.
Tyler Reddick is your second optimal dominator on this slate. He showed blazing speed in practice and battled to the end with Larson in our other mile and a half race this season. He has the second best odds to win the race and should be Larsons biggest fear. Fellow Toyota driver Ty Gibbs is also a top candidate to lead some laps in this race. He appears to have the best long run car based on practice, and he is very cheap for a dominator option. We think he can be paired with Larson, and many will not feel comfortable rostering drivers starting 1-2. Many people will also not feel comfortable rostering an 8k driver starting second. However, if some other more notable drivers posted these lap times, they would be super chalky. Ty Gibbs is an up and coming elite talent in the sport, and we love him in GPPs. He projects for moderate ownership, but too much of the field will find a reason to scare them off of him.
Some other Toyota’s are also notable. Denny Hamlin is one of the best drivers in the sport, and showed good practice times. However we prefer Reddick and Gibbs over Hamlin, and they come at a discount. Hamlin could possibly go overlooked though, so he is viable in GPPs if you can build a comfortable line around Hamlin/Larson or Hamlin/Reddick. Next to mention is Denny’s car that he owns, which is driven by Bubba Wallace. Bubba seemed to be the most dominant car at Texas last year, but ultimately ran into some issues near the end of the race. He looks to have good long run speed like the rest of the Toyotas, and is another cheap potential dominator. When building though, just beware that the path to multiple of our GPP options dominating (i.e. Gibbs, Wallace, Hamlin) is very slim. It is more fitting to pair a GPP option with an optimal option in GPPs.
Aside from the Toyota’s, another guy that is going overlooked is William Byron. Byron has been on fire lately, rattling off wins left and right. We aren’t sure if he has the best car, but his team and pit crew always improves and puts him in the best position possible. He has upside at what should be low ownership. Consider him a deeper option in GPPs, but a play that can lead to takedowns.
We have already mentioned Kyle Busch at the top. In GPPs you can fade the ownership if you want to be different. RCR has struggled this year and he is in a back-up car at a high price. Our general rule of thumb is not to pay up for PD, so if your feeling frisky fading him could pay off in a big way… but it could also leave you drawing dead from the start should he unload a rocketship. Not all lineups today will be forcing expensive studs for dominator points, so it likely just depends on your construction if you play Busch or not.
The next PD play we love today is Chase Elliott. Chase is a very streaky driver. His wins and good finishes tend to come in bunches and he looks like he is heating up. Hendrick Motorsports is on fire right now and Chase could be in line to capitalize along with all the extra PD points he presents.
Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are PD options today as well that grade out as really solid pt/$ plays. Fords are clearly behind the Chevy’s and Yota’s to start this year and didn’t show speed in the 1.5 mile track earlier this year either. However these two vets have a good price and usually tend to find their way to 10-15th place even when they don’t have the best cars. If going more balanced they are solid plays. Consider our interest more medium than high.
When looking for cheaper PD plays Ricky Stenhouse Jr. tops the list for us. He has a knack for having good finishes on the 1.5’s. He also showed middle of the pack speeds in practice so should have plenty positions to pick off today. Other PD plays we consider in the lower ranges are Eric Jones and Josh Berry. Jones tends to just show up and get the job done. If he doesn’t have problems you can usually expect a solid yet un-spectacular day. We usually prefer Berry on the short tracks, however he still stands out today as a solid play. The price works and that #4 car used to be amazing here at Texas with Harvick driving. Berry has been burned by his pit crew the last couple of weeks so that is the biggest risk, however if they can get it together he could be a top 15 car from what we saw at practice.
If you’re having to dumpster dive this week our pick would be Daniel Hemric. Kaulig cars have been absolutely awful this year but he is almost the bare minimum and starts dead last. The equipment should* be better than some of the back markers back there. He also ran mid 20s here last year for what it’s worth. Other punt options would be Zane Smith and Carson Hocevar. Both of these guys we liked all week but now they are going to start in the top 20 which makes them riskier. It’s hard to stomach, but they could be optimal if they hang around where they start all day.
Lastly, we want to touch on the Trackhouse Duo of Daniel Suarez and Ross Chastain. Suarez is a guy that we have been eyeing all week, and now he had great speed in practice and gets a favorable starting spot for DFS purposes. He is not projected for much ownership and is one of our favorite GPP plays in the mid range. Chastain has been great at 1.5 mile tracks in the next-gen era, and he was one of the best cars at Texas last year. His path to being optimal is tough, but there is a very slim path and he is going to be very low owned. He is another guy that he and his team have some things to tune out on his car if they want to contend, but the driver skill is present and just needs a little help from the car.