Optimal: Larson, Blaney, Hamlin, Keselowski, Chastain, Stenhouse, Jones, Briscoe, Gragson, Lajoie
GPP: Drivers starting 20th-38th that are not listed above
Super GPP: Byron, Wallace, Gibbs
NASCAR returns to a Super-Speedway today as the Cup series takes on Talladega Motor Speedway. Daytona was a success for many of us in Discord earlier this year, and we are looking to repeat that today!
If you are new to NASCAR DFS, listen up. Talladega (along with Daytona and New-Atlanta), are considered Superspeedways, or drafting tracks. In these races, anyone is capable of a good finish, and we often see big crashes that knock a lot of drivers out of the race. For this reason, the strategy for these races is to stack the back. For cash and SE contests, we suggest not playing anyone starting in the top 20. As you move into large field MME tournaments, feel free to include 1-2 drivers starting in the 10-19 range, but it is not a must. Every driver has about a 60% chance of finishing the race, so playing guys that start towards the front comes with a huge risk of a negative score in your lineup. Also, do not be afraid to leave salary on the table. More likely than not, the optimal lineup will have an excess of salary leftover.
When building lineups, we will want to focus on place differential and projected ownership. At these races, we typically see popular drivers starting in the rear approach 50% ownership, while a less-known driver is starting just one spot in front of him, but will be 15% owned. This is the type of opportunities you want to pounce on in GPPs. There are a few drivers in the field that are in a class of their own when it comes to Superspeedways (Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano come to mind), but for the most part, the playing field is as even as ever.
Starting with optimal plays, we will begin with Kyle Larson. NASCAR did not allow Larson to run a qualifying lap due to his team making unapproved adjustments to the roof rails. He will now have to start dead last, giving him the most place differential upside on the slate. Larson has a reputation for being awful on Superspeedways, but this is simply not true. He has been very vocal in the past that he hates these tracks, but to say he is awful at them is erroneous. When looking at Talladega races in the Next-Gen era, Larson’s average running position with 18 laps remaining is 6.5, which ranks second, just behind Ryan Blaney. Larson just has terrible luck at these tracks but that luck is bound to flip to good at some point. Unfortunately, he is going to be mega-chalk, so we are not able to fly under the radar by playing him. However, he is a lock for your optimal lineups, but anything is viable in GPPs at Talladega, so a fade is not the worst idea either.
Aside from Larson, we have a couple other drivers who are going to be super chalky due to their popularity and starting position. Ross Chastain and Ricky Stenhouse Jr both start near the rear and are great Superspeedway drivers. Ross has a Talladega victory under his belt, and Stenhouse secured a Daytona 500 victory last season. Both of these drivers will be very aggressive, which gives them a high ceiling. However, that aggressiveness could get them into some trouble and have their day end early. Since there are other drivers starting in the rear that project for a fraction of the ownership as these guys, it just does not make sense to jam Chastain, Stenhouse, and Larson all in. Once again, our focus today is place differential upside and ownership, and while these guys 100% have the PD upside, they do not check the ownership box. Use these three wisely, and watch your lineups projected ownership, as you do not want to get too chalky.
The next elephant in the room to address is Ryan Blaney. Blaney has been the best here at Talladega over the last few years, as he has two wins here since 2021, to go along with five top 5’s. Blaney will roll off 21st today, and is projecting to be the next highest owned driver after the trio above. Blaney is the favorite to win this race, but with dominator points not a factor today, we would prefer to eat chalk with the guys that offer 10-15 more potential PD points, if you choose to do so. Blaney is a fine play, but we think he is going to be higher owned than he should be, relative to his chances of being optimal here today.
The rest of the optimal plays are all in the header, and all project for moderate ownership. We are not going to dig into all of them, since they are all viable for the same reasons. They each have PD upside and a high floor. Noah Gragson stands out the most out of that group, as he starts the deepest and is a decent Superspeedway driver. Noah is not going to be low owned, but he deserves the same amount of ownership that Chastain and Stenhouse are getting, but may come in a little lower owned instead. He is a great play in all formats.
In GPPs, we recommend using projections to identify those drivers that also start in the back half of the field, but do not project to see as much ownership. The first name that jumps out to us is Carson Hocevar. Hocevar will roll off 35th and is projected to be around 20% owned. Hocevar is in good Superspeedway equipment, and can run up front if he stays out of trouble. The next guy we like is Zane Smith. Zane will start 30th and we currently project him for 15% ownership. Smith, a former truck series champion in 2022, is also teammates with Hocevar at Spire Motorsports. These two teammates are going overlooked due to the big names starting around them, and are great GPP plays. Josh Berry starts 29th in a Stewart Hass Ford and is only projected to be 17% owned, making him a fine GPP play as well. Daniel Suarez looks great as well, starting 25th and in very good equipment. Lastly, we have some interest in Justin Haley. Haley has always been good at Superspeedways, and most people seem to write him off these days now that he is racing for Rick Ware Racing, and not Kaulig Motorsports. Starting 27th, that puts him in between the studs starting 21-23 and the studs starting in the rear, which will keep his ownership low.