Optimal Plays: Lillard, Haliburton (DK), George, Harden (FD), Siakam, Portis, Murphy (FD), Nesmith, Beverley (DK)
GPP Plays: Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander (DK), Tatum, Irving (DK), Haliburton (FD), Herro, McCollum, Holmgren, Turner
Top Game Stacks: DAL/LAC, IND/MIL
Pending Injury News: Antetokounmpo (D), Leonard (Q), Hardaway Jr. (Q), Robinson (Q)
We’ve got a four-game playoff slate once again on Sunday! We’ll be expanding on our two favorite game stacks and will briefly cover the other two games. The Miami/Boston game might get out of hand, evidenced by the 14-point spread in that one, but the other games should be relatively close. No one is currently projected for more than 46% ownership on either site, so things are looking more spread out in that regard today. Make sure to maintain flexibility in your roster spots with the games spread out again!
MIA/BOS
This game has a massive spread for a playoff game at 14 points, but it’s pretty understandable. We’re not sure how Miami is supposed to score in this series, as Bam Adebayo has a pretty bad matchup with Porzinigis and the elite rim defense for Boston. He is capable of a good game due to his talent, but overall there are better places to look today. Tyler Herro is the other guy who’s going to have to be great for Miami to have a chance, and he’s been pretty good against Miami this year averaging 24/5/5, and that was with Butler. He’s the Miami stud we like better today, as lead guard is the one place Boston has been able to be attacked this year. Jamie Jaquez should be on the floor a ton, and he’s played well in Butler’s absence this year. He’s the 2nd best guy on the team at driving the ball next to Herro, and Spo has specifically called out how he’ll be relied upon with Jimmy out in the playoffs. The Boston guy we have the most interest in is Jayson Tatum. They’re probably going to have to use the rookie Jaquez on him, or maybe Jovic? The options aren’t awesome for Miami, and we’re not sure how much zone they’ll feel comfortable playing with Tatum’s ability to hit pull-up 3-pointers. Jaylen Brown has used running out in the open floor to generate his points for his ceiling games and Miami isn’t going to let much running happen in this matchup we expect. He’ll be taken away the most if Miami does play zone with his reliance on driving also. Kristaps Porzingis did have 1 really good game against Miami this year, but odds are he’ll be dealing with Bam, and he won’t get his post-up stuff as easy against him. It’s hard to get excited about multiple guys from this game with the blowout concern, as there are just some great game environments to attack with multiple pieces on this slate.
DAL/LAC
This series should be a good one as they’ve produced fireworks in the past and both squads have some star power on their respective teams. This game has a total of 222.5 and a tight spread of just 2.5 points with the Mavs listed as favorites. Luka Doncic has historically destroyed the Clippers and had an amazing series against them in the bubble in that Clippers collapse. Luka is the highest-priced player on the slate and for good reason as he averaged 65+ fantasy points on the season. Doncic had a 44 point explosion in the first matchup against LAC but cooled off in the other two games against them. He’ll likely finish with the most raw points, but the price is a tough one to swallow on a slate devoid of much value. What’s enticing about this is the ownership will likely be in the single digits on either site and a ceiling game would be optimal for your lineups. He’s worth rostering GPPs for the upside, but just consider that you’ll have to sacrifice somewhere in your lineup construction because of the high price tag. Kyrie Irving has been a great fit with Luka this season as they really have seemed to figure out how to play together. We’re getting a bit of a discount here on DK as Kai was priced over 9K to close out the season. He finished the season strong and went for 50+ fantasy points in three of the last four games, including a 48 point masterclass against Houston a couple of weeks ago. Kyrie’s ownership should be higher considering his finish to the regular season and the team’s need for him to produce in order to win. He makes for a great option in GPPs on both sites with a preference on DK due to the $900 discount. Daniel Gafford has really found his place in Dallas and has been a great fit with his ability to finish and rim protection. He’s a risky play here as the minutes have been inconsistent lately with Lively still a presence or Washington just moving to the 5 in smaller lineups. Gafford can be considered for GPPs, but we’d only play him within the game stack. PJ Washington is worth a mention here, but the price is a bit high for the low floor that he comes with. He certainly has upside for explosion games, but he has an unsteady floor. He can also be considered within game stacks, but we’d take a stand on either Washington or Gafford and not play both together. The Clippers side will also be pretty concentrated here as their production isn’t very spread out. We’ll start with Paul George who is one of the best Pt/$ plays on the slate as he gets a great matchup against a Dallas team that struggles against opposing forwards. His price is just too cheap on both sites as he was nearly $1,000 more at the end of the regular season. Kawhi Leonard is currently questionable and it looks like he may not be ready to go for game one. If Kawhi is confirmed out, George is almost a lock in most formats. He has a steady floor and great upside at his price and should be considered in all formats on both sites regardless if Kawhi plays or not. James Harden is another one that would stand to benefit if Kawhi is ruled out, but regardless he’s a great play on both sites. Harden is averaging 5X of his price on the season and has 50+ fantasy point upside. The projected ownership feels a bit too high on FanDuel though, so a fade is certainly in play in GPPs over there. The Beard’s upside isn’t what it used to be, so a ceiling game likely doesn’t kill you, so there’s potentially more upside in fading him. Lastly, we have a couple of value pieces in Norman Powell and Terrance Mann that are only viable if Kawhi is eventually ruled out. They can be considered for FanDuel but they’re each $1,000 cheaper on DK in comparison. They make for great options in all formats, especially in a game stack. We have a preference for Powell over Mann between the two.
IND/MIL
These teams played 5 times this season, but all of them were before January 3rd, which means Siakam was on Indy for none of them. This game only has a 1-point spread with a huge total of 231 points, so lots of good fantasy stuff is expected. Tyrese Haliburton has finally started looking more like his old self, averaging 18.9 points/3.7 rebounds/10 assists in April, and most importantly, shooting 35.7% on 3-pointers with 8 attempts per game. We know Milwakuee’s struggles with lead guards is still very real, and he could threaten for some 20/20 games this series. He’s a full $1k cheaper on DK and looking great there, but his price on FD is keeping projected ownership in check. Pascal Siakam is jumping off the page in this matchup without Giannis to deal with. He is an excellent midrange or roll guy to the rim and should be on the receiving end of many Haliburton assists. Myles Turner could beat his minutes projection we have since he usually plays more against traditional bigs like Lopez. He broke 30 minutes in four of the five meetings this year, and he’s coming in on fire with percentages of 60/45/75 in April. Aaron Nesmith is going to be on the floor a lot this series and has the game where we know he can score 35+ fantasy points. He could break out just because of his minutes alone, although he’s cheap, so does have a decent ownership projection. On the Buck’s side, Damian Lillard is going to be carrying the scoring load. He practiced in full Friday after having a few days off with his adductor/groin injuries, so should be a full go. He’ll be given all the minutes he can handle, which means he could go 40, and the Pacers were 29th in allowing rim points this year and 30th (see: dead last) against pick-and-roll ball handlers. The matchup is great for him, and we’ll see if he can put it all together now in the playoffs. Bobby Portis has been excellent without Giannis, and we’ve seen him pick up his interior scoring. With the Pacers being so bad at the rim, he’s going to have a lot of great looks and one of our favorite midrange plays. Khris Middleton has had some great peripheral games since coming back from injury in mid-March. In his 12 games, he is averaging 6.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists. He has a nice ceiling for his price, the only knock we can find is a small one, where he is carrying a lot of projected ownership, but this environment feels like it’ll be great for him. Brook Lopez will probably be on the floor a lot with no true backup center anymore behind him. He saw his scoring average rise from 10.6 points in March to 14.1 points in April without Giannis and has a really good matchup facing Turner. Patrick Beverley is only $4.3k on DK, and while he might not be involved much offensively, is a good source of salary relief for a starter on this slate.
NO/OKC
The OKC Thunder have had a great year and surprised many in how soon their ascension has begun. They get a matchup with a Pelicans squad that’ll be without Zion for a couple of weeks. This game has a total of 216.5 with OKC listed as 8.5-point favorites, so it’s not as enticing as the other two above. There are a few options that will carry ownership on both sides, we’ll start with NOLA and Brandon Ingram. As mentioned, the Pels will be without Zion which bodes well for BI from a DFS perspective. Ingram is coming off of a 40+ fantasy point performance against the Kings. In nine games without Zion this season, Ingram averaged just under 23 points, 6.3 assists, and 5.2 rebounds. His average is above 5X, so this is a safe play with solid upside. CJ McCollum is also a guy who should see elevated responsibility without Zion. I suspect that people will be hesitant to play him here because of his stinker a couple of nights ago, and an overall rough start to the playoffs. This is a good spot for a bounce back at reduced ownership in GPPs. Trey Murphy is another guy that is a solid play across the board but is even better on FanDuel specifically as he’s $200 cheaper there. That might not be much, but guys are rarely cheaper on FD than on DK these days. On the OKC side of things, we’ll start with MVP finalist, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA will likely be under 10% across all formats on both sites which makes him an enticing option. The problem here is that this will be a slower-paced game compared to the others and the spread isn’t as close. If you’re anticipating a tight affair, then he’s certainly worth a play to differentiate at the top– kind of like Embiid yesterday. Next, we have Chet Holmgren who is $1,200 cheaper on DK than on FD. He’s a viable play on FD as well, but rates out much better on DK. He can be considered for GPPs as well and always has massive upside with his ability to rack up the stocks. Jalen Williams had a breakout season and will be an X factor for this team in the playoffs. He’s also a solid play that will carry some ownership on DK as he’s sub 7K there. He makes for a good option on both sites and the reduced ownership on FD still makes him a solid GPP option, even at the elevated price.