Dominators: Larson, Hamlin, Reddick, Truex, Byron, Bell (GPP), Chastain (GPP)
Place Differential: Elliott, Gragson, Jones, Berry
Value: Hocevar, Gilliland, Burton
After an amazing race last week, which ended in a photo-finish, we now turn our sights to Darlington, aka The Lady in Black. Practice was oddly dominated by some drivers we are not accustomed to seeing at the top of the charts. We believe that practice is not as telling as usual, and we will just really focus on the tire fall off, not the actual speed times. You will want to mainly shoot for two dominator lineups, and mixing in three dominator lines in large tournaments is viable as well. Let’s take the green flag and dive right into turn one.
We will start with the race favorite, Kyle Larson. We view Larson as the most likely driver to dominate at some point in this race. He had very little tire fall off in practice, and has great track history at Darlington. Darlington is a track that takes skill and Larson is the most talented driver in the series. Our thoughts and projections are aligned here, and believe Larson is the top stud to spend up on today.
When looking at the season so far, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have been in a world of their own. These two have led at nearly every track, and we can expect more of the same today. Denny has 4 wins over his career at Darlington, and he is a candidate to add another one today. If picking between Larson and Hamlin, we lean Larson slightly. Playing both of them is viable as well, but the bottom of your lineup will be hard to stomach. However with huge tire fall-off and potential for some calamity, those lineups do have a path to being optimal.
Tyler Reddick will start from the pole and will likely grab the lead early. Reddick ranked 2nd in driver rating last fall and finished 2nd. He is strong here and is a great play once again. Reddick and his teammate Bubba Wallace both struggled in the tire fall off department last week, which is slightly concerning. Regardless, Reddick has the easiest path to leading laps early on and seems to have a fast hot rod. He is viable in all formats and would rank him just behind Larson and Hamlin for potential dominators.
Martin Truex and William Byron both seem to be going overlooked today by the three drivers above. Truex is one of the best at managing his tires and has just completely dominated this race before. By completely dominating, I mean he led 95% of laps in this race in 2021, which is absurd. Truex is one of my favorite GPP plays and I predict him to come on strong late in the race. He does not project as well, but in higher stakes, we should get him very low owned because of it. Byron is also very good at managing his tires, and he also has the benefit of having last years #1 ranked pit crew, which can be crucial at Darlington where there will be many pit stops. Consider both Truex and Byron in GPPs.
Lastly, Christopher Bell and Ross Chastain are viable in GPPs. Like Truex, Bell does not project well, but there is one thing I noticed during practice that has me intrigued on Bell. Despite him not having fast lap times, he had the least tire fall off in the whole field, which could be huge late in the race. Everyone around the industry is writing off Bell due to his lap times, but we are not too worried about the times today, and like to look at tire fall off. Chastain seems to have very little fall off as well, and has historically been great at high tire wear tracks. Both of these guys are great options in GPPs since they grade out slightly worse than the guys above, but are still great candidates to lead laps at low ownership.
As we move to place differential, Chase Elliott is the top option. Elliott seems to be returning to form and has great history here at Darlington. Elliott has a high floor, making him a lock in cash games. While we want to prioritize dominators in GPPs, Elliott should be used in GPPs as well if you are able to make it work salary wise.
Noah Gragson will start last and is nearly a must play in all formats. He’s been a bright spot so far this year for SHR and was elite at Darlington in the XFinity series. He looked fast in practice and had little fall off. We recommend not overthinking this one and locking him in.
Erik Jones is returning from injury, and will roll off 30th. Jones is great at Darlington, and even has a win in the next-gen era here. Jones would usually be a lock n’ load in this spot, but I do have slight concerns over his injury. He said in an interview that he is “95%”. That to me is just an odd way of saying I am back but I still have some discomfort. We have seen drivers before just not look the same their first race or two back from injury after a scary cash. Jones is still a great play nonetheless, and a fantastic cash game play.
Another guy starting deep that has our interest is Josh Berry. Berry will start 33rd, giving him a high floor and huge ceiling for his price. Berry’s career has consisted of making a rise to the big stage by being a dominant short track asphalt driver, where managing your tires is crucial. This ability of Berry’s should help him today and we expect him to be great in the long run. Fire up Berry in all formats.
As far as value goes, we have a couple viable options that can help you fit those three stud builds. Harrison Burton will start 35th, and has the potential to move up from his starting position. He has the highest floor out of our value options, but also the lowest ceiling. Carson Hocevar is starting 21st and this a great track type for him. He is a young talented driver that was elite at Darlington in the Truck series. He has a great chance of moving up a couple spots from his starting position and paying off his cheap price tag. Lastly we have Todd Gilliland, who had elite practice times. Now, we are not factoring in practice times as much this week, but we just cannot completely ignore it. Gilliland was one of the best cars in practice and rolls off 15th. If he were able to hang around 15th, he would crush at his price. Consider Gilliland as a GPP value play.