Optimal Plays: Gilgeous-Alexander, Tatum, Irving (FD), Brown, Jal. Williams, Holmgren (DK), White, Washington (DK), Horford, LeVert (DK), Strus (FD), Lively
GPP Plays: Doncic, Mitchell, Irving, Mobley, Gafford, LeVert (FD), Dort, Jones Jr (FD), Wiggins, Joe, Wallace, Jay. Williams
Pending Injury News: Doncic, Mitchell, Allen
We have a two-game slate of Game 4s on the cards once again tonight with the Cavs and Thunder looking to avoid falling into 3-1 holes against their respective opponents. We should have two good ones on deck, so let’s get right into it!
The first game of the night will take place between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. After stunning Boston in Game 2, Cleveland promptly gave home-court advantage right back to the Celtics in Game 3. We will start things off with the visiting Celtics here who have the second-highest team total on the slate behind just the Mavericks. The book on the Celtics at this point always revolves around their two studs. Jayson Tatum is coming off a massive Game 3 where he posted 62.3 fantasy points on a 33-13-6 stat line. He leads the team in usage at 32% this series and clearly is as safe as they come with upside to boot. With that being said, he did setting at 45-46 fantasy ponts in the first two games of the series and that is most likely not going to cut it to win tournaments given his price. He will be one of the higher-owned studs on the slate and can be faded for lower ownership in GPP formats. Jaylen Brown is the Robin to Tatum’s Batman. He has been up and down and then up again in this series. He shot the ball absurdly well in Games 1 and 3 with performances of 12-18 and 13-17 with a 7-17 line sandwiched in between. He is priced very modestly which makes him a safe play in all formats. Derrick White has come back to earth after being a flame thrower in the Miami series after Porzingis went down. We are not all that enamored with him as he becomes pretty useless at his price if his shot is not falling (which it has not been). With tons of viable options tonight, he feels like pretty poor chalk to eat given how reliant he is on scoring to hit and exceed value. Al Horford is somebody we are taking a full stand on at this point. He continues to be absurdly chalky on both sites and has flashed zero fantasy ceiling in the time since they lost Porzingis. This is not a spot where he is suddenly going to go berzerk out of nowhere as he has posted sub-20 fantasy point efforts in each of the last two games. In fact, he has scored no more than 25.5 fantasy points in any game in the post season thus far…and you are telling us he is going to be 50-60% owned? Hard pass. Jrue Holiday did finally pop his head out of the water and have a great game in Game 3, posting 38.5 fantasy points after being firmly average over the rest of the playoffs thus far. However, that came on the back of a 7-10 shooting effort and 8 rebounds, both of which were outliers. Is it possible he could repeat that again? Sure. For that reason you can consider him in larger field GPP formats if you want to. We just don’t love banking on a guy who has a 14% usage rate in the series thus far. The only value option to consider here is Payton Pritchard who has shown an ability to post 20+ fantasy points in each of the first two games of the series. It is hard to trust any of these guys off the bench but Pritchard would be your guy if you wanted to go in that direction as he will see low-20s minutes in the role he is pretty much locked into.
Turning to the other side of this one, once again a ton of how to attack the Cavs comes down to the status of their questionable players. For the majority of the series, we were just waiting to hear on Jarrett Allen. However, Donovan Mitchell is now questionable as well and missed shootaround this morning which is a bad omen. That throws everything up into the air for Cleveland and we will need to monitor their situation as we draw closer to lock time. Projections currently have Mitchell projected to play while Allen sits once again so we will work under that assumption. It truly has been the Donovan Mitchell show for the Cavs as he is averaging 22 FGAs per game and a 29% usage rate in the series thus far. He is projected to carry lesser ownership than both SGA and Tatum in a similar price range which makes him a strong GPP pivot off of the two of them. If he were to miss, it would become the Darius Garland show and he would be very underpriced for the role he would have to play on the offensive end of the court in this one. He has not flashed any real ceiling in this series as is and projects about at his ceiling. He can be used in cash as he is relatively safe for his price. But we do not love his upside in GPPs. Caris LeVert has played a pivotal role off the bench for Cleveland and has had two consecutive strong performances. He is underpriced on DK where he is just $4.6k and will be one of the optimal value options on the site. He also makes for a strong GPP option on FD as well. Max Strus continues to play heavy minutes and is doing absolutely nothing with them. It is still very possible that he has an explosion at some point where all his threes drop but that has not happened yet. With him projected to carry heavy ownership, particularly on FD where he is $400 cheaper, we are not enamored with him. However, he is usable on FD with the discount as that mkes it far more likely he could hit value at a minimum. Evan Mobley was exceptional in Game 2 and then came back down to earth last time out. He had posted 40+ fantasy points in four of his previous five games before that one though which makes him a very solid GPP option to consider once again with Allen out.
The second game of the slate features the highest total of the two games (215.5) with the Dallas Mavericks having the highest implied team total on the slate (108.75). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been great in this series from a fantasy perspective as he has finished with 59, 6, and 64.5 fantasy points in the first three games. He has also played 42 and 41 minutes in back-to-back games and probably would have seen similar minutes in Game 1 if the game stayed close. We expect more of the same from SGA in Game 4, making him an optimal stud option on the slate. Jalen Williams has been solid this series and has scored 34,35,and 36 fantasy points in the first three games. We have not seen that explosion game yet, which is what we look for in tournaments. He’s a solid option and isn’t looking to be coming in too highly owned with a projection of around 37% ownership. He makes for an optimal option in the mid range. With that bend said, you can fade him in GPP formats given the lack of a ceiling we have seen from him. Chet Holmgren has been effective this series, especially with his ability to contribute with the defensive stats. We have yet to see a really explosive game from Holmgren, particularly on the offensive end. If we are able to get a bit more from the offensive side of Holmgren then we can really see his ceiling that can reach the high 40’s in fantasy points. Regardless, he makes for a fantastic option, especially on DK where he ranks second in PT/$ on the Thunder just behind SGA. Lu Dort has seen some heavy minutes in this series but has done very little in terms of fantasy production. He has been the main defender on Luka Doncic so we should see big minutes once again as long as he stays out of foul trouble. We can’t expect much in terms of ceiling for Dort, but he should be out there on the court and he did take seven 3-point attempts in Game 3, but only made 2 of them. If he is a bit more efficient with the looks he is getting we could get a more than solid performance from Dort. Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Jaylin Williams, and Cason Wallace are all viable options in the $3K range on DraftKings. It feels like they all take turns when it comes to who has the big performance. Last time out, it was Isaiah Joe who had the good game, but we have seen Wiggins and Williams put up over 20 fantasy points at some other points in the series. Wallace was solid in Games 1 and 2, but he does offer the lowest ceiling of the four. Wiggins has the highest ceiling and is projected for the most minutes, but is also the most expensive of the four. Wallace is projected to be the lowest owned of the four, so we are inclined to take shots on him in tournaments
On the Dallas side, we have to start with Luka Doncic who has not seen less than 40 minutes in any of the first three games. We have yet to see a true Luka ceiling game where he goes for 70+ fantasy points, though he did finish with 63 fantasy points in Game 2. The other games were a bit of a disappointment for Luka’s standards. Given his hefty price tag, we want to see more than 42 and 52 fantasy points, which is what he had in Games 1 and 3. He is the most expensive player on the slate, but he is really the only one who can reach 70 fantasy points on any given slate. We would be willing to look at Luka for tournaments, given his 20% ownership projection. From a fantasy perspective, Kyrie Irving has been disappointing in this series. He finally reached over 40 fantasy points in Game 3, but had been held below that in Games 1 and 2. His shot volume has been pretty low with Luka and PJ Washington doing most of the scoring. Still, we know Kyrie can pop off at any time and he does project well for us at around 20% ownership. He is viable in GPPs but would look elsewhere for a ceiling in cash games. The star of the series, arguably, has been PJ Washington. He has scored 27 and 29 actual points in back to back games and has finished with 40 and 58 DK points in those games. He has taken 18 and 23 shot attempts in back to back games, while going 5-12 from the three point line in Game 4 and 7-11 in Game 2. He is getting plenty of opportunities right now, but maybe the Thunder make an adjustment to slow him down. He projects to be the second highest-owned Maverick behind Dereck Lively. Washington is a solid option in the midrange with plenty of ceiling right now. Speaking of Dereck Lively, he finished with 23 DK points in 27 minutes played after struggling in the first two games. With Daniel Gafford being banged up, we could see more Lively and he does project as the highest owned Maverick on the slate. The GPP move would be to play Gafford instead of Lively, though it’s risky as the injuries seem to be piling on for Gafford. They are both in the same good spot, so we would go with Lively in cash games and Gafford in tournaments. Derrick Jones Jr. has played solid minutes this series, but is limited when it comes to offering a ceiling. If you are looking for salary relief you could do worse than DJJ. He projects for 31 minutes with room for more given he is the primary defender on SGA.