Optimal: Larson, Blaney, Reddick, Keselowski, Suarez, Preece, McDowell, Haley
GPP: Byron, Hamlin, Elliott, Bowman, Briscoe, Hocevar, Dillon, Stenhouse, Jones, Gilliland
NASCAR heads to Homestead Miami for the Straight Talk Wireless 400. Homestead is a 1.5 Mile track that favors the most skilled drivers, as riding the high line as close to the wall as possible is how you generate the most speed. Tire wear will be very high so knowing how to manage your tires will be key as well. This is one of the best tracks on the schedule, I am excited, so let’s dig in!
The top dominator and overall play on the slate is Kyle Larson. Homestead is Larson’s playground, and as expected, he dominated practice. His biggest enemy today is likely himself, so barring any mistakes, he could put up an insane score. He is a lock button in all formats.
This is certainly a race where Larson could lead 80% of the race and we only need to target one dominator, but it is worth noting that William Byron and Ryan Blaney both start 8-9 spots higher than Larson and are my 2nd and 3rd ranked drivers this afternoon. If one of them can get to the front quickly and lead for the larger part of stage one, they certainly will find themselves in the optimal lineup.
In lineups where you expect Larson to lead the majority of the race, the optimal spend up in double stud builds would be Tyler Reddick. I rank Reddick just behind the trio above, but Reddick will start back in 20th and have a great shot at a Top 5. The other driver that fits this mold is Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has a Top 10 car this week and will start 23rd. We definitely prefer Reddick, but if you need the extra salary, Hamlin works just fine as well.
Moving onto some cheaper PD plays, where Brad Keselowski is the headliner. I am very high on Brad this week, and like him to compete for a Top 10. He had a Top 5 car in the long run in practice, and he has had a successful career at Homestead. Starting 32nd, Brad is a phenomenal play in all formats. Daniel Suarez is also viable at his price, but we should not be itching to jam him in like we should Brad. Suarez just does not seem to have the same upside, but he should run inside the Top 20, which gives him a decent floor from his 33rd starting position. I would argue that Ryan Preece is just as good of a play as Suarez, and will likely be higher owned. I have mentioned before that since RFK became a team, they seem to either hit on all cylinders or completely whiff as a team. They look strong this week, so pairing Preece with Brad is a great strategy.
Moving down into the cheaper options, there are a slew of options that start deep in the pack. None of them jump off the page, but in multiple stud builds you will likely need to use a few of them. I would rank them McDowell, Haley, Dillon, Stenhouse, Jones. Haley showed the most speed, but also starts the furthest up, so his ceiling is higher but his floor is lower. Haley is an elite tournament option. I would advise against going any cheaper than these guys, but Todd Gilliland could be worth a punt. Best of luck today!