Optimal Plays: Young (DK), Grimes (FD), Adebayo (FD), Barnes (DK), Castle, D. White (FD), A. Gordon, Sochan, Braun (FD), Butler (FD), Ware (DK), Edwards (DK), Shead (FD), Mogbo (DK)
GPP Plays: Gilgeous-Alexander (DK), Grimes, J. Green, Avdija, Okongwu, Daniels, Wiggins, Henderson, K. Johnson, Robinson, Okeke, D. Mitchell
Pending Injury News: Tatum, Adebayo, Herro, Porzingis, Simons, Clingan, Holiday, Dort, Walter
We have a nice slate to wrap up the weekend! DK has the late game, making it a 6-gamer, while FD cut it so they have the 5 games. It’s a Sunday deep into the season, meaning we could get lots of unexpected news, so keep an eye out for Discord alerts as they start rolling in. Let’s get to it!
We start with the Philadelphia 76ers visiting the Atlanta Hawks. For the Sixers, Justin Edwards has played at least 30 minutes in the last three games and has taken advantage of it, with at least 31 fantasy points in each. Quentin Grimes has been on a tear of his own, and his price reflects it. He is $500 cheaper on FD, but his projected ownership there gives us pause, while the price on DK is just a bit high. He’s not completely out, but we wouldn’t prioritize him unless going with a stack here. Jared Butler is definitely too expensive on DK for the scoring droughts he can have, but we don’t mind him on FD. However, if ownership starts climbing above 25% in projections, we’d start to shy away. Chuma Okeke doesn’t have near the ownership projections he should for the ceilings he possesses. He might not get over 35 minutes, but we think he should play at least 32 minutes as Philly has no interest in trying to win and should ride him to save some of their 2-way guys and the games they can play here down the stretch. Guerschon Yabusele is on the riskier side as they’ve said they want to save his minutes, but also have given him some extended minutes in a couple of games recently. As long as his ownership projection stays lower, we’re fine going there if you don’t mind taking the risk of him playing 20 minutes. For the Hawks, Onyeka Okongwu gets another matchup where he isn’t going to face a real center, and he’s been going scorched earth on smaller frontlines lately. Even as his price climbs, we don’t mind going back to the well here. Zaccharie Risacher has his moments of disappearing, but his minutes here should be solid enough with Philly being smaller and they’ll need his defensive versatility as long as the game stays close and the spread isn’t huge at 10 points. Dyson Daniels is getting in the mid-30s on minutes still and is another guy whose ability to get in the passing lanes will be counted on here. Trae Young is in his usual spot of always having a high ceiling but the floor is dangerous, and in GPPs he is looking fairly popular. You can go there, but we’d prefer the other Hawks and save him for cash games, as he’s great there still with his huge role.
We head north of the border in our next game with the San Antonio Spurs visiting the Toronto Raptors. For the Spurs, Jeremy Sochan is starting to get big minutes again and his price has not caught up with that. If something happens and suddenly he plays 26 minutes, we’ll take that risk, because he has a good chance to bury us if he gets to his minutes projection and we don’t play him. The other guy getting all the minutes and usage is rookie Stephon Castle, and he gets a great matchup here against another tanking team that doesn’t mind playing fast. Keldon Johnson has closed the last couple of games as some of the vets have their minutes cut down, and he is in a sneaky spot as we expect him to continue in that role here. For Toronto, the big man triumvirate of Jonathan Mogbo, Colin Castleton, and Orlando Robinson are all in play as Poeltl is out and the Spurs don’t have any traditional bigs that have been playing much. Mogbo is drawing the most ownership in projections but has been struggling recently when getting minutes. He is the one we are least interested in for GPPs because of that, and we would fade him with his popularity. Robinson has been the most productive and the one we would be prioritizing today, and as long as Castleton starts, he could be considered as well, but Robinson is our favorite. Scottie Barnes is sub-$9k on DK, and in this matchup he should be able to get in the paint at will. Jamal Shead is technically cheaper on FD, and while he isn’t going to put up flashy numbers, he is a decent salary saver if you need him.
The third game features the Charlotte Hornets visiting the Miami Heat. Charlotte has not played many close games recently, and even when they have, their minutes have become very spread out. It is in their best interest to lose games so they haven’t been putting a big burden on anyone, and their prices just don’t reflect that enough with as healthy as they’re looking for this game as well. Miami is no juggernaut and the game should stay close, but we have a hard time finding anyone to love. For the Heat, they are in the midst of a ten-game losing streak, but it’s not from lack of trying, as they’re playing a normal rotation still. While we need to keep an eye on this team with injuries that could shape a lot, one guy we like no matter what is Kel’el Ware. Centers continue to be great against Charlotte, and he’s had a double-double in three of his last four. Bam Adebayo is playing a ton, and we expect if he plays, he will continue to do so. All those minutes plus this matchup make him someone who is viable. Davion Mitchell has hit over 30 minutes in his last three games and also scored in double figures every game in that stretch. He is a nice value option that is being overlooked in current ownership projections. Andrew Wiggins has been scoring over 20 points a game this month, and this is a spot for him to continue his great play.
Our last game to start at lock has the Boston Celtics visiting the Portland Trail Blazers. For the Celtics, Derrick White is $700 cheaper on FD, which is too cheap. He should be on the floor a ton so he is a great play there and is still viable on DK. Al Horford has averaged 3.9 assists in March and has upped his peripherals game, he is a sneaky play at his price currently getting almost no ownership. This is a team we’ll have to keep an eye on too, as there’s some pending injury news that can change things. For Portland, Scoot Henderson is a fine guy to play, but we really like him if Simons ends up missing this one. Deni Avdija has played 38 or more minutes in the last two games as they are a bit thin on the wing as they will be this evening, and he’s responded with back-to-back 30-point games. The matchup here is tougher but at only $7.5k on DK he is someone we can use.
The last game on the FD slate has the Denver Nuggets visiting the Houston Rockets. The Nuggets will still be missing Jokic, and Aaron Gordon has been big in helping take on the scoring load, with 23 or more in his last three games. His price is getting a little higher than we’d like on FD for how popular he’s still projecting to be, but on DK the price hasn’t caught up with the current role. Peyton Watson is back in the rotation with Jokic’s injury, and he’s responded by scoring 12 or more points in his last three games. He’s started each game and only 1 did the Nuggets have a close game at the end, and he did close there, so we expect that to be the case again today. Christian Braun continues to hold down the wing for this team who is short of them, and while he’s had single digit shots in the last three games, we attribute that more to the blowout time. For the Rockets, Dillon Brooks continues to have a very nice ceiling for his price. He can kill you when he doesn’t hit it with sub-15 fantasy point games, but Denver’s pace and general lack of perimeter defense is a nice matchup for him. Jalen Green thrives in these pace-up spots where he can play in transition, and Denver doesn’t have much that can slow him down if he gets going.
Our DK-exclusive game has the Oklahoma City Thunder paying a visit to the Los Angeles Clippers. Overall, this game is pretty gross from a fantasy perspective between Oklahoma City’s great defense and the Clippers snail-like pace. Cason Wallace has asserted himself well recently with the injuries, and at his price with his defensive activity he can find a nice ceiling if he’s getting multiple stocks. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is currently around 10% ownership, and the guy projected for the highest raw points always has a chance to put the slate out of reach. Lower ownership like this is when we like to attack those spots, putting him in play. This is about it, since the Clips spread it around pretty well recently anyway, and the matchup is just very tough. Good luck to everyone tonight!