Dominators: Cole Custer is the optimal dominator and fading him is very tough to do. He will start on the pole and his 10 lap and 15 lap averages were wildly faster than everyone else. Chandler Smith will also start on the front row, and he also looks blazing fast. He had the fastest 5 lap average and his 10 and 15 lap averages are a little skewed by an outlier lap where he got loose. Many people will not know this and assume Custer was actually that much faster than him in the long run. Custer is still probably the better long run car, but it is super close. I like being overweight on Smith. The other two options I am looking at are John H Nemechek and Justin Allgaier. JHN seems to be getting more attention, but I honestly like Allgaier more. Allgaier seems to have the next best long run car after Custer, which is no surprise as that is typically the type of speed we see out of him. Riley Herbst and Aric Almirola are worth a look in GPPs as well. Herbst can be sneaky as many will overlook him. He did not run a long run in practice but he actually had a faster 5 lap average than his teammate Custer, and he likely has a good long run car as well, we just did not get to see evidence of that yet. He is elite in GPPs. Almirola is just a year removed from the Cup Series and should be one of the more skilled drivers in the field. His practice times suggest he will run about where he starts, but he ran as many laps as he could in practice, so he should have learned a lot and they can adjust the car to his liking.
Place Differential and Value: I am just going to keep this section short and sweet. William Byron is the most optimal play on the slate. He had to qualify first which is the toughest to do, and he qualified deep in the field. He is the best driver in the field and had top 10 practice times. Pair him with a dominator and do not overthink this one. I do not have interest in any of the cheap guys, but unfortunately using one of them is necessary in some builds. Ryan Ellis would be the top option down there, with Smithley, Leitz, Yeley, and Perkins also being options. Smithley would be my least favorite option because he is looking like he will actually garner ownership and he is very slow. I would avoid using these guys unless you absolutely have to in your builds. Josh Williams is viable at a cheap 7k price tag. He is in a good car and had an encouraging run last week. Williams has always been known for getting the best out of bad equipment in the Xfinity series, so I expect him to have some solid finishes in this Kaulig ride throughout the year.
I will be around in Discord for questions, so feel free to ask away!