Optimal Plays: Doncic (DK), Quickley (FD), Cunningham, Murray, Kuminga (FD), Paul (FD), Olynyk (FD), White (DK), Z. Collins (DK), K. Johnson (DK), Sochan, Camara (FD), Gafford (DK), Bertans (FD), Dick (FD)
GPP Plays: Doncic (FD), Jokic, Durant, Tatum, Booker, Quickley (DK), Brown, Vassell (FD), Paul (DK), Ivey, Thompson, Jackson-Davis (DK)
Top Game Stacks: DAL/DET, BOS/PHX (GPP), SAS/GSW (GPP)
Pending Injury News: Doncic, Booker, Porzingis, Walker IV, Jackson-Davis
Tonight we have a nice little six-game slate to enjoy. The NBA season always seems to pick up the intensity this time of year as the battle for seeding turns up and teams want to lock in a top-six seed and avoid the play-in tournament. We have 4 games with nearly identical point totals sitting between 226.5 and 227.5, one game with a 234.5 total, and then one snoozer with a 207 total. Three of the games have a line of seven points or less and only two are in double digits. With all that being said let’s go ahead and dive in!
The game with the highest overall total today consists of the Dallas Mavericks traveling up to Detroit to take on the Pistons. Dallas always starts and stops with their stud, Luka Doncic. Luka looks like a great payup option tonight. Not only is he in the game with the highest total, but this is an island game for the Mavs, so they are coming off a rest day and going into a rest day. Luka also is our highest projected point scorer today. When compared to his closest competition for the top spot today (Jokic), Luka has better positionality as there are solid cheap options at C today (stay tuned). Finally, Luka had arguably the best matchup for PGs today (PGs vs. SAS are a close second) as Detroit has been getting torched by them all year, and both teams are top 10 in pace on the season. Our favorite guy to stack with Luka today is Daniel Gafford. Lively is out today so Gafford will get the start and all the minutes he can handle. At only $4.4k on DK, he grades out as the best Pt/$ play on the slate (remember we said good cheap C options?!).
On the other side of the game, we start with Cade Cunningham. Cade currently rates out very highly in our pt/$ metric, as his $8k salary on DK just seems too low for this spot. He also is our 4th highest projected total player for total points. As good as Luka and Kyrie Irving are, neither are known for their defensive abilities and Cade will have to feast to keep his team competitive today. Dallas also ranks 27th in defensive efficiency rating over the last 30 days. A Cade/Luka/Gafford game stack looks mighty intriguing today with this game looking the most promising for high scores. It will be chalky, but there are pivots elsewhere that can be made. The other pieces of this game don’t look as appealing as there isn’t much value outside of Gafford, and we like other cheaper pieces from other games. This isn’t to say you can’t take flyers on guys like Kyrie, PJ Washington, Jalen Duren, and Isaiah Stewart; they just aren’t priorities to us or stand out in any way.
Before moving much further, we have to address a game that is drawing a ton of ownership on FD in particular between the Portland Trail Blazers and Toronto Raptors. The game is the late night hammer and holds a total of 228 points. The top four owned players in FD projections currently all come from this game. Our personal belief is that this game is not anything to be excited about as both Ayton and Henderson are set to make their returns for the Blazers tonight which will just thin the minutes load for some of the peripheral options. Toumani Camara will carry heavy ownership but his minutes upside could be called into question with these options returning. On the Raptors side, the trio of Olynyk, Quickley, and Dick are all projected to be very chalky as well. Quickley finally went bananas in their last game and flashed a great ceiling against the Suns. However, his price is starting to climb to a very uncomfortable point on both sites. We don’t love him at this degree of ownership. Olynyk has flashed a ceiling of about 40 fantasy points since stepping into a bigger role but has yet to eclipse 28 minutes. That will really harm his ceiling and we don’t love him despite the positive matchup. The same can be said of Dick who has been playing around 30 minutes without Brown on the court. If playing anybody from this trio, we may lean him, particularly at his depressed price on FD. However, we would be far more excited about this spot if they were not projected to be this chalky. On DK, we do see some lower ownerships here, but that is primarily because they are just more expensive…which obviously just harms their upside more. We have to plant our flag in certain places on a slate like this. We will be steering clear of this game in GPP formats.
The next game that we want to mention is the Golden State Warriors and the San Antonio Spurs. Victor Wembanyama and Steph Curry are both out tonight, creating some interesting usage dynamics. There are no clear mispriced players so no one here should be overwhelming, must-have chalk; but there is still some fantasy goodness to be had. Zach Collins, Jeremy Sochan, and Devin Vassell all grade out as strong plays for us today. Collins’ price took a jump up, but he still ranks as our second best Pt/$ play today. Sochan and Vassell don’t look spectacular and aren’t in the best matchup, but they are too cheap for their roles and usage rates with no Wemby on the floor. Keldon Johnson and Malaki Branham don’t rate out quite as high, but they have nearly as much upside as Sochan and come in with lower ownership, so they make for an interesting pivot or stack with one of the other guys. Branham has been over 5x value in 7 of his last 9, and that was with Wemby on the floor. His minutes have been up of late and now there should be more usage to go his way.
On the GS side, it’s more of the same. There are no elite plays even with them missing Chef Curry, but there are a few solid ones. It almost feels like “if not now, then when?” for Chris Paul. The Spurs are dreadful against PGs on the year defensively, and he is finally healthy and stepping into the aforementioned Curry hole at PG today. While the Warriors have other guys who can step up to help offset some of the facilitating and scoring duties, there will not be a much better chance to prove himself as a viable piece for a playoff run than today. Trayce Jackson-Davis could be an interesting piece as Steve Kerr has already mentioned wanting to get him more involved before the playoffs start. He has been starting to see more playing time, and with no Wemby around, he could see an easier path to rebounds and stocks. However, he is questionable himself so that is something we have to keep an eye on. Jonathan Kuminga would also be in line to get a bump in usage and become a strong GPP option as well.
The last game we want to touch on is the matchup between the Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns for GPPs. Both Booker and Porzingis currently hold questionable tags with Porzingis trending in a negative direction while Booker is trending positively. Starting off with the Celtics side of things, Jayson Tatum keeps getting priced down on DK and would make for a great play at $9.3k if Porzingis misses. He projects for 36 minutes and 49 FP which would make him a great GPP play at 18%. On FD, he’s more of a middling play for $9800 but would still make for a solid GPP option. The next beneficiary of Porzingis missing would be Jaylen Brown, who DK just refuses to price up. He is currently projected for 35 mins and 40 FP which would help him exceed value and would make for another great option for GPPs at 17% ownership. Like Tatum, Brown is also priced up on FD where he isn’t as great of an option, but still holds 10% ownership which makes him worth a shot after we just saw him go off Thursday night. The next two options to touch on are Derrick White and Jrue Holiday. The Suns rank 28th on the year against guards, so one of these will be worth targeting especially if Kristaps misses. If we were to choose one, it would probably be Derrick White, as he flashes more of a ceiling and has his usage rate jump up to 22% with Porzingis off the floor. Derrick White makes for a high-upside GPP play on DK where he is $1.3k less than he is on FD. He projects for 34 minutes and 32 points but has the upside for more if Porzingis is out. Jrue Holiday would probably be a fade candidate as he doesn’t really flash a safe floor or a high ceiling due to the lack of shot volume. If Kristaps is in, it would downgrade both White and Holiday significantly. The last option worth touching on is Al Horford, who would be thrust into a 30 minute role if Porzingis is out. In his last five games going 30 mins, he has exceeded 30 FP which would make him a great value piece on both sites and would project for decent ownership. If Kristaps gives it a go though, he makes for an appealing option on DK where they refuse to price him up, as he has gone over 45 FP in 3 of his last 4 games.
Now we move onto the Phoenix side of things. If Devin Booker gives it a go, Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, and Bradley Beal would take massive hits and lose their upside for ceiling games. Devin Booker should play his usual minutes at no ownership on both sites which makes for an interesting spot to pay up for. He has a 30% usage rate on the year with everyone on the court as a 1.2 FPPM producer. The matchup is tough though as we know how good of a defensive backcourt Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are. For that reason we would prefer to pay up for Kevin Durant who sees a usage rate of 29% as a 1.3 FPPM producer. Both studs project for heavy minutes, so this could be a spot to take a shot on as we have seen the Celtics falter on defense of late, giving up a big game against the Cavs who were significantly shorthanded. The Celtics do not have room to be making the same mistakes with the likes of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. With Booker trending in the right direction, Beal becomes a fade on both sites as he only projects for 33 mins and as a 1 FPPM producer that will not project well for his price tag on both sites. The last two options to touch on are Jusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen. Jusuf Nurkic has come down to earth a tad, but would make for a strong play against what would be an undersized Celtics frontcourt if Porzingis misses. He projects for 1% ownership on both sites and 27 minutes. With that projection, he doesn’t project as a great play but is still worth a sprinkle as a 1.2 FPPM producer if he sees his minutes reach into the 30’s. Now with Grayson Allen, he is a very simple breakdown. He will either kill your lineups or he will fly you up the standings. He has exploded for 40 and 50 FP in his last two games but also fell flat with 22, 11, and 12 FP in the three games before that. He projects for no ownership at the moment and takes a slight bump down with Booker in, but with the heavy minutes he plays he still makes for an interesting spot in GPPs. Play him at your own risk as he can easily sink your lineups as much as he can help.