Injuries to watch: JOKIC, Giannis, Smart, Murray-Boyles
GPP Edge: Stack LAL/MIL studs or play low owned SGA
Welcome to Saturday night in the Association. With the NBA having one 5:00 tip today, it leaves us with a four game docket on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
We’ll start with the Nuggets at T’Wolves matchup, as we wait on the injury concerning some guy named Jokic. He’s listed as questionable with a wrist injury, and obviously has a huge bearing on the slate. If Joker is unable to go, Jonas Valanciunas becomes a Must-Have at just $3500 on DK and $4100 on FD. And Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon would see their usage go through the roof becoming elite plays. Outside of Jokic, both Christian Braun and Cameron Johnson are also out for Denver, leaving plenty of minutes on the wings. There are great cost savings out there for both Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr, who will be mega chalk on this slate. Hardaway lives and dies by his scoring production which typically dictates how he does in DFS. There’s merit to fading him because he can go cold, but with likely secure shot volume there’s a lot to like about his floor. If Jokic were to miss, he then becomes a hard guy to fade. Brown on the other hand is likely to get a healthy amount of minutes but has yet to do anything in games where he has averaged between 24-28 minutes. You could also divert from the field with Julian Strawther, who always seems to produce when given minutes. On the stack side of that game, with the savings you can get to Anthony Edwards and / or Julius Randle. Randle just keeps stringing together fantastic games so he would probably be our lean.
We’ll also be waiting on any news concerning Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak returned last night after sitting out Wednesday and played forty minutes in the Bucks OT win. He is currently listed as probable (knee, rest), and we’re assuming with a game vs. Luka and the Lakers that he gives it a go. Outside of Giannis, the story may be one of Monte-Kuzma’s revenge as Kyle Kuzma takes on his former team (one of them). Kuzma buried many of us Wednesday as a chalk play, but the good news is he stayed in the starting lineup last night even with Giannis back on the court and he played 39 minutes, second on the team, finished with 60 DK points, and his price didn’t adjust off of that. In fact, he’s $300 cheaper on DK tonight than he was last night. We keep waiting for the other shoe to drop on Ryan Rollins, but he just keeps putting up 30-40 DK points, and his price stays in the low $6000’s again tonight. He’s viable, but it feels like he’s priced at the high end of his range. For the Lakers, it’s Luka and Reaves, who lead the team in usage across the board and also are in a great matchup. Rui Hachimura is out, which leaves Marcus Smart as intriguing, but we want to keep tabs on him before dictating how to play the other Lakers outside of the big two. Others who may soak up those minutes like LaRavia, Vanderbilt or Knecht do nothing for us on this slate.
The biggest spread of the night belongs to the Thunder, who are favored by 17.5 over Charlotte. LaMelo Ball has already been ruled out for the Hornets, leaving high usage available for Miles Bridges and Kon Kneuppel. Ryan Kalkbrenner returns tonight, which thankfully takes the chalky Moussa Diabate out of play. The Thunder have been rolling teams this week, which has led to Shai Gilgeous–Alexander playing fewer than 30 minutes in each of the last two games. Even with the reduced minutes, he has posted 60.8 and 54.2 DK points. If you think Charlotte can keep this somewhat competitive, SGA may be the stud worth paying up for, potentially at reduced ownership. We don’t mind stacking him with Bridges, and you can even mix in Isaiah Joe as a hedge for a Thunder blowout.
Toronto at Indiana has a 235 O/U and offers several stacking possibilities. For the Pacers, Andrew Nembhard has put up four straight 30+ DK-point games since returning and should carry even more responsibility tonight with Aaron Nesmith joining Bennedict Mathurin on the sidelines. Although his minutes have been limited, TJ McConnell is in play as well—he could see a small bump with Nesmith out and remains an elite FPPG producer. If you’re considering a game stack, Pascal Siakam is a must since he leads the team in usage, as his projected ownership also looks low with most players gravitating toward Giannis or Luka builds. We’re steering clear of all the Indy bigs—Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Tony Bradley, and Isaiah Jackson—as they’re simply too volatile.
On the Raptors’ side, Immanuel Quickley has averaged 40.9 DK points over his last four games while playing at least 32 minutes in each. Jakob Poeltl appears to be past his back issues, logging 30 minutes in his last two games and finishing with 35 and 37.2 DK points. With Collin Murray-Boyles questionable again, Poeltl could approach the 30-minute mark once more. Scottie Barnes is coming off a 28/10/8/5 performance, and pairing him with Siakam could be an underowned duo with big upside. If you want to avoid the Nuggets’ value options, you can pivot to Jamal Shead, who has played 20+ minutes in two of his last three games and topped 20 DK points in both.
Good luck everyone