Cash: Wellmaker, Makhachev, Shevchenko, Susurkaev, Welli
GPP: Rodriguez, Daukus, Kline, Blanchfield, Prates, Camilo, Sabatini, Brady, Denis, Nickal
Value: Della Maddalena, Morales, Dariush, Vieira, Mariscal, Meerschaert, Kopylov, Hill, Cortez
It’s time for a fun card as we finally come upon UFC 322! This card looks exciting from top to bottom!
The main event gives us Jack Della Maddalena and Islam Makhachev. We are going to take a stand siding with JDM for a few reasons. We don’t want to put too much stock into this, but training with an elite grappler in Craig Jones is very helpful for JDM. We saw Jones train with Volk and it helped him fend off takedowns from Islam as he went 4/9. The only problem is that Islam is still a very good striker, so he was able to take care of business against Volk twice. Now, Islam is facing a pure boxer in JDM which is very dangerous. We still expect Islam to have success with the takedowns early on, but things could get sticky in rounds 3-5 if JDM starts to fend off some takedowns and keep things standing as the better striker. It’s gonna be sweaty, but we want to take our chances with the value here in JDM.
The Co-Main event gives us Valentina Shevchenko and Zheng Welli. We are going to side with Valentina here for various reasons. First of all, we believe her elite kickboxing will be of use here as that tends to work as a jab for her. Second of all, we believe she has the wrestling advantage in this spot and can retain top control if she gets Welli down to the ground. Lastly, we simply believe being the better striker and having solid cardio is enough to get the victory here against Zheng Welli who may have a tough go here. There are levels to this game, and if Welli struggles against Rose Namajunas, we firmly believe that Valentina is going to be a nightmare for her. In cash games, you just want to use both of these fighters. This fight is heavily favored to go all 5 rounds, so both of them should give you a solid score in cash. It’s a tough fight to fade for that reason, as the winner will likely put up 100+ points. Shev definitely has the most upside to dominate all 5 rounds and post a huge score, whereas we think Welli has less potential for that.
Oh boy, we got a potential banger here between Sean Brady and Michael Morales. I will admit, this is an insanely tough matchup to pick but we can almost guarantee you there will be one of two outcomes. Either Sean Brady dominates with the grappling or Morales finds the knockout finish. Michael Morales is a talented striker who is undefeated for a reason. We have yet to see him exposed and he does have massive size advantages against Brady. This is by far the toughest test for Morales though since Brady is a tremendous grappler, so it’ll be exciting as a viewer to watch this fight play out. For DFS purposes, you will be sweating bullets either way, so we’d rather lean into the value and take Morales. But we wouldn’t fault you for picking whoever fits your lineup best. If you are an MME player, we highly recommend having exposure to both men in different lineups.
The next fight feels like an easy one to pick as we are siding with Carlos Prates over Leon Edwards. Edwards seems to be on a downward spiral while Prates seems to be trending upwards. We already dislike Edwards due to his low volume, but this is a nightmare because if Nate Diaz was able to wobble Edwards, Prates is probably going to finish him cold if he lands the perfect shot. Prates is very talented and knows how to use his length to his advantage and we expect a masterclass here with the potential for a finish. The tough part for DFS is that with low volume comes a very high reliance on a knockout. If Prates doesn’t finish him, he’s probably not optimal, which makes this fight fadable in all formats, but Prates is certainly viable in GPPs.
Our main card opens with a fun fight between Benoit Saint-Denis and Beneil Dariush. We will side with the value here in Dariush but there is going to be one condition we have to sweat out. Dariush is the perfect fighter, he’s got great wrestling and striking to go along with solid takedown defense. The only problem is his durability because he has been starched various times before. We need Dariush to survive the first round where the shots of BSD are the strongest. If Dariush can survive the first round, we believe he can win this fight in any way he wants. BSD may have power but he’s not a true striker so he will spam his wrestling which will eventually tire him out in the later rounds if he can’t get a finish. As long as Dariush can avoid the perfect killshot, we believe he’s got a good chance to win this fight. That being said Vegas only gives this about a 50% chance to get through two rounds, so it’s definitely a risk taking the underdog here.
Our next fight is a value or pass situation as Bo Nickal takes on Rodolfo Vieira. Both men are elite grapplers, so it is possible that no one is going to want to take the other down. That leaves this to be a standing affair and we’d prefer the value in Vieira who has some decent power and has looked a lot better on the feet ever since he moved fighting camps. Bo Nickal just doesn’t impress us all that much and his upside usually resides with wrestling which we don’t believe he’ll have success with. Vieira is also a nice value because the fight is expected to go the distance, so even if he loses you should get a decent score from him.
Our next pick is not a sexy one but we like Gregory Rodriguez over Roman Kopylov. The reason we like Rodriguez is because he is an aggressive fighter who dictates the pace. That is a recipe for disaster for someone like Kopylov who likes to set up his strikes and establish his gameplan with patience. Rodriguez is the better striker in our opinion and carries some decent power to go along with solid grappling. We can’t rule out a finish considering Kopylov has been subbed twice, but Rodriguez doesn’t have any on his UFC record yet so we expect a nice dominant decision win here for our pick.
Our next fight gives us Erin Blanchfield and Tracy Cortez. We like Blanchfield to win this fight however she chooses. We may not get a finish here, but we should at least get a decisive win from Blanchfield. She has the wrestling to win this fight considering Cortez isn’t the best of takedown defenders. She is also the slightly better striker in our opinion. This just seems like an uphill battle for Cortez to pull off the win against Blanchfield who has only gotten better since they last fought. She’ll likely have very low ownership as she’s one of the only top studs that isn’t likely to find a finish, and that usually keeps people away even though we think she has a fine ceiling here.
We now come upon one of the biggest hype trains on the card between Malcolm Wellmaker and his short notice replacement Ethyn Ewing. Both men are strikers but Wellmaker is the far superior striker with immense power. This is very much a showcase fight for Wellmaker who we expect to notch his 3rd consecutive knockout finish. He is also priced way too cheap considering he’s being listed as if he were fighting his previous opponent. This almost feels like a free square you have to take. If ever a Must-Have in UFC, it’s Malcolm Wellmaker.
We arrive upon two more spots that are very similar but higher priced. The first is Baisangur Sasurkaev who takes on Eric McConico. If you can find the salary to spend up for Sasurkaev, we love it because he is likely going to finish McConico early with the immense power he carries. He’s -1000 to win and projects for way more points than anyone else. I like that DK priced him at 9.8k so you actually have to think about whether he’s worth it. With a lot of value to like, we lean towards finding room in your lineup to use him.
If you are looking for a GPP pivot, Kyle Daukas is in a similar spot with slight risk against Gerald Meerschaert. If he can avoid the takedowns early, the finish is likely in play considering Meerschaert has durability issues and Daukas has shown us the power necessary to finish fights. We believe Daukas can fend off any takedown attempts before he shows his aggression in the striking department to get the finish.
Fatima Kline is not worth the price of admission as her price is way too high, but she will almost certainly win this fight against Angela Hill. We got two fighters going in different directions in their careers and we expect Kline to dominate this fight as she continues to ascend in the UFC. Angela Hill is durable though, so we likely aren’t going to get a good score from Kline, which is crucial considering the studs that are around her. Kline is only worth a look in the deepest of GPPs where she might get anemic ownership.
Our next matchup gives us Matheus Camilo and Viacheslav Borschev. We will side with Camilo due to the wrestling/submission upside he carries. The way to beat Borschev is with wrestling and that is likely what Camilo will do. We don’t expect Camilo to get cute here considering he’s not the greatest of strikers. There’s upside here because Camilo is a submission specialist, so if he can get Borschev down then we like his chances of finding an opportunity to snag a submission. Borschev is not the type to get up quick or scramble well, so this matchup is truly a nightmare for him. Give us Camilo all day as one of the better mid-tier options. Some people will take Borschev for value, but we think he’s too much at risk of wasting rounds on his back and hardly scoring.
The last fight is a close one as Pat Sabatini takes on Chepe (Jose) Mariscal who is on a five fight winning streak. This is your classic striker vs. wrestler matchup. Can Sabatini get the takedown? We actually do believe he can, so we just hope he doesn’t get cute trying to strike. Sabatini has gone on record trying to say he can strike and it has screwed him over various times before. Chepe will murder him if he tries to strike, so we are hoping he doesn’t try to impress us with the striking. If he does the right thing, Mariscal is there to be taken down. The best part is that Sabatini has amazing top control and is always looking for the submission. There is some nice upside for Sabatini who can post a nice score due to the wrestling. Chepe also has upside if the fight stays on the feet, but his floor is low.