Optimal Plays: Antetokounmpo, Maxey, Avdija (FD), Ayton (DK), Oubre, Yabusele, Nembhard (FD), Cal. Martin, Boston, Castle (DK)
GPP Plays: Towns, Cunningham, Siakam (DK), Powell (FD), Simons (DK), Missi (FD), Sharpe (DK), Ke. Johnson (FD), T. Martin (FD), Clowney (FD), Wallace (DK), Butler (DK)
Pending Injury News: Jokic, Towns, D. Murray, Haliburton, Avdija, Turner, Kuzma, A. Gordon, Drummond, Carrington, Sharpe, McBride
Tonight we have a nice 8-game slate on our hands with plenty of pending injury news that could shake up the direction of our builds so make sure to stay tuned into Discord for updates but for now let’s dive in!
Our first game this evening, on paper, looks like it could be one of the better matchups of the regular season. We have the top 2 teams in the NBA squaring off as the Cleveland Cavaliers will host the Oklahoma City Thunder. The game features a nice 230.5 total with a competitive 2.5 point spread where both teams rank inside the top 10 in pace as well as offensive and defensive efficiency. While this game stack doesn’t grade out super well as a whole, it should come in fairly low owned making it appealing for GPPs.
On the Cleveland side of the ball, the tricky part is pinning down which studs will go off on any given night and with OKC being such a tough defensive matchup, it’s hard to see any Cavs players being a priority. If choosing to go this route, Evan Mobley would be our top target where his matchup is slightly friendlier and he arguably has the highest ceiling. Outside of Mobley, we aren’t enthusiastic about Cleveland today and would only target their players when looking to overstack this game.
For the Thunder, the value pieces are standing out as injuries to Ajay Mitchell and Alex Caruso have opened up the door for more secure roles for Lu Dort, Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins. Wiggins is priced up too much on FD to go there but on DK he is near the minimum and has averaged 23.25 DK points over his last 6 games making him a solid value punt in tourney builds. Dort and Wallace have a safer minutes floor where they should each push for 30+ tonight and while they aren’t as productive on a per minute basis as Wiggins, they have both shown enough upside at their price points to be considered for GPPs as well. Like Cleveland, you can always make a case for the studs on OKC, specifically when over stacking this game but the only really Thunder player standing out is Isaiah Hartenstein. While his double-double production has slowed down recently, he has still topped 32 FP in every game this year and continues to contribute across the box score.
Our second game of the night is setting up to be a track meet as the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers will square off with a slate high total of 242.5, featuring two teams that rank in the top 10 in pace while also ranking in the bottom 8 in defensive efficiency. These two teams played each other just one month ago where they put up 255 points.
The Bulls see the majority of their production come from their 4 starters Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Josh Giddey and Coby White. The four of them are similar in terms of usage between 22-25% where Vucevic and Giddey have been slightly more productive from a FPPM perspective on the season. Despite the condensed nature of fantasy production around these 4, none are grading out super well, given their respective price points. Still in what’s projected to be a high scoring affair, having exposure to 1 or 2 in a GPP stack makes sense. Be mindful of Giddey’s ownership on FD, if it continues to creep toward 30+, he might be worth a fade in tournaments given the volatility of his playing time. Outside of our top 4, Lonzo Ball and Patrick Williams are the two value players we are interested in. Lonzo has been solid in his return, averaging just over 1 FPPM on the year, and recently has seen his minutes trend upward as well, where he has averaged 25 per game over his last 4 games. With a lot of scoring anticipated in this one, he makes for a nice value piece in tourneys. While Williams isn’t as productive, he does start and his minutes are secure, which adds to his appeal. Given his lack of ceiling, he feels like more of a cash player but his ownership doesn’t look too steep, keeping him in play for GPPs if you land on him.
For the Pacers, the majority of their production is centered around their starting 5 along with their two usage hogs on the bench in Obi Toppin and TJ McConnell. Both Toppin and McConnell grade out as strong value plays today in this high scoring environment where their defensive matchups look very favorable. If Haliburton and/or Turner were to miss, it would be a significant boost to either player as well. Speaking of Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner, both players are in play tonight given the matchup and expected offensive output and each had solid performances in round 1 against the Bulls this year. Andrew Nembhard grades out as our top Pacer today, and would receive an even bigger boost if Haliburton were to miss. While his production has been down over the last 4 games, his price tag has dropped with it and given tonight’s outlook could be in for a nice bounce back game. The last two Pacers we are looking at this evening are Pascal Siakam and Bennedict Mathurin. Both players have seen drastic price reductions from their peak tags just over a month ago and given the inconsistency each has shown we aren’t prioritizing either player but with a fantastic matchup in front of them we can look to them as a cheaper way to get exposure to the starters when stacking this game.
The third game on the slate would normally be one we could avoid but given some key injuries, we now have some interest in. The Washington Wizards and Philadelphia 76ers feature the second lowest total on the night along with the second largest spread. Still with Joel Embiid and Paul George out for the Sixers, Philly looks like the optimal team to target today,
With Embiid and PG out, 50% of the team’s usage is up for grabs. Pair that with the fact that Washington ranks top 5 in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency, we now have plenty of interest in getting some Sixers in our lineups tonight. Tyrese Maxey will lead the charge for Philly and has 60 FP upside with Embiid and PG off the floor. He will be popular but for good reason as he is the top projected stud on the slate and is under $9K on both sites. Kelly Oubre will soak up a good chunk of the usage left behind and is already coming off back to back games topping 40 FP. His price makes him close to a lock this evening where he is a fantastic option in all formats. Guerschon Yabusele is another strong option for Philly today that would receive an even bigger boost if Drummond were to miss again. Regardless he should see over 30 minutes in an elite matchup. Caleb Martin, like the previously mentioned Sixers, will also enjoy an increase in role and opportunity today while also benefiting from the same dream matchup. Martin has shown to be capable when given expanded opportunities in the past and will be another popular salary saver today. Given the ownerships surrounding these four Sixers, we can start out cash builds with them and go from there. In GPPs there is always a case to fade and hope the game turns into a dud but another option is to offset the chalk by stacking low-owned run back pieces which we will touch on below. Lastly for Philly, if Andre Drummond ends up playing, we will want to see what they do with the starting lineup. If he starts, then he’s very much in play as a GPP option as we know how productive he is when he’s on the floor. If he comes off the bench, then it’s likely we would just look elsewhere for that value.
For the Wizards, they will be short handed as well which will open up some viable run back pieces in this game. Starting with Jared Butler, who is priced at the minimum on DK and just above the minimum on FD. Butler is coming off back to back 20+ minute and 25+ FP performances and is averaging just over 1 FPPM on the season. The matchup on paper looks tough but this isn’t the same Sixers team with Embiid and George off the floor. Carlton Carrington is currently questionable and if he were to miss this would be an even bigger boost to Butler. If Carrington is able to give it a go, he becomes a viable GPP option, where he should see over 30 minutes and almost no ownership. Kyshawn George is priced low enough to keep him in the mix but his upside isn’t jumping off the page by any means and would limit him to game stack piece only. Jonas Valanciunas is a low minute, high FPPM guy which is frustrating to navigate at times. Still he won’t have Embiid to contend with and it’s possible his teammate Alex Sarr misses with an illness, which if that were to happen, he’d likely catapult up to a top option on the slate and make for a great runback piece. If Sarr does play, we don’t have a ton of interest in him as he is priced up and still splitting minutes. Kyle Kuzma is also questionable tonight, as he missed the second half of last night’s game against Houston. If he plays, and starts, he is viable as his price has come way down, but he’s still a very risky option and not a priority by any means. Two players who are currently not grading out well but would both benefit from Kuzma missing are Bilal Coulibaly and Justin Champagnie. We will want to wait to monitor the injury statuses but if either or both Coulibaly and Champagnie start, they can be considered in game stack run backs as both have showcased 50+ FP ceilings this year.
Moving on to our next contest, we have the Toronto Raptors taking on the New York Knicks with a nice 231.5 total but a 12.5 point spread we need to be mindful of. This is a game that if we think it will stay closer than the projections suggest, could turn into a decent GPP game stack.
For the Raptors, the main piece we are interested in is Immanuel Quickley. IQ has only played 3 games since his return but has topped 30 minutes in each contest with mixed fantasy production in each. Still he is second on the team in usage, and is priced well down from his counterparts where his ceiling is arguably just as high. Pair that with a potential revenge factor and Quickley makes for a solid tournament play today. Jakob Poeltl is priced down enough on DK where he’s worth a look but would mostly reserve rostering him for full game stacks where we expect the matchup to stay close.
On the other side, it’s the Knicks starters that do the bulk of the heavy lifting where they have some of the best roles worth targeting from a fantasy perspective. Each of the starters averages around 35+ minutes while all averaging over 30 FPPG. Karl-Anthony Towns has taken over as the alpha of this team and is easily the top Knick option today if he suits up. Toronto ranks dead last against opposing centers and KAT has been feasting all season regardless of the matchup. Injury and blowout risk do pose concerns but he grades out as one of the top spend ups this evening. Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby are all squarely in play as well given how secure their roles are. Given the price points, Bridges is probably the preferred target of the group but really all are fine options based on who fits your build the best.
Our 5th game this evening, doesn’t look super appealing on paper with a slate low 212.5 projected total, however, due to injuries, there are some pieces popping that are worth a look as the Detroit Pistons take on the Brooklyn Nets.
For Detroit, Cade Cunningham continues to lead the way and is enjoying a career season. He has been stuffing the stat sheet and contributing across the box score all year and makes for a nice spend up GPP target today, especially is running a game stack here. Cade is really the only Piston we have a ton of interest in given the low scoring projection of this game but considering how low owned the other Detroit players look to be, you can keep them in your player pool for last pieces in or when over stacking here.
The Nets will be short handed again with DLo, Cam Johnson, Ben Simmons and Cam Thomas on the sidelines. With how ugly the fantasy environment looks, we’re hesitant to call any of the Nets guys priorities, still they are priced low enough that they are grading out well and are viable targets today. Tyrese Martin and Noah Clowney are grading out as our top two options for Brooklyn. Both should see around 30 minutes and Detroit has really slowed down defensively of late, making this a nice matchup for both of them. Day’Ron Sharpe is currently questionable, if he plays, he is a high FPPM guy that just went for 40+ last game. If he sits, Nic Claxton would receive a big boost and would have a much better path to a ceiling performance, something he hasn’t showcased much of lately. Keon Johnson might be the safest option for the Nets, as he’s topped 20 FP in each of his last 9 games, including going for 30+ in four of them. Finally, Ziaire Williams is coming off back to back solid outings having topped 30 FP. He should continue to see an expanded role, however his minutes are still not as strong as we would like, making him a GPP candidate only.
The 6th game tonight could have some sneaky fantasy upside as the Portland Trail Blazers take on the New Orleans Pelicans. Oddly enough both teams rank in the bottom 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, still there are some strong targets on both sides.
For Portland, their production has been pretty spread out this season where they have 6 guys averaging over 23 FPPG. Anfernee Simons leads the team in usage and scoring and has been on a nice run of late topping 37 FP in 5 straight games. Deandre Ayton leads Portland in overall fantasy production and has arguably the best matchup on the team today, as NO has been abused inside. Shaedon Sharpe and Deni Avdija are second and third in usage respectively and have both been producing well of late. Each have a great matchup today and are in play. Finally Toumani Camara is a value piece we can look to if we want exposure to this game at reduced cost. He continues to play over 30 minutes and in a great matchup has 30+ FP upside today.
For the Pels, Trey Murphy and Zion Williamson will sit tonight, while Dejounte Murray is currently questionable. If Murray plays, he and CJ McCollum are firmly in play for GPP spend up options as Portland has struggled against guards all year. Brandon Boston should be the biggest beneficiary of Murphy’s absence and is grading out as one of the top plays on both sites today. We have seen what Boston can do in an expanded role and his price has dropped way down, making him a strong value target today. Herb Jones is a fine cash play otherwise not too excited about him. Yves Missi has been boom or bust lately but the matchup is good tonight and he has shown some nice upside, where we can keep him in our GPP pool.
The penultimate game today features the Denver Nuggets and the L.A. Clippers. This is a nice pace up spot for the Clippers who will be forced to run a little more and we have a clash of Denver’s top 4 offense going against the Clippers top 5 defense.
For the Clippers Norman Powell is grading out as their top option where he is second on the team in usage and third in FPPG. He has been a little streaky of late but still remains a strong mid-range play today. James Harden and Ivica Zubac are the other two “stud” options for the Clippers and both are strong targets today. They are 1-2 in terms of production this season and both have showcased nice upside throughout the year. With Kawhi out again today, the bulk of the offense should flow through these 3 and their prices are appealing in what could be a competitive affair. The value options on DK are viable tonight but not priorities.
For the Nuggets, the only real interest we have is on DK and with Peyton Watson. With Aaron Gordon out, he should start and see around 26 minutes where he is priced near the minimum. He has been very productive in his increased opportunities this season and makes for a strong value option today. The matchup against L.A. is keeping the rest of the Nuggets from grading out too well. As always you can fire up Nikola Jokic where he has arguably the top ceiling on the slate.
Our final game tonight will pit the Milwaukee Bucks against the San Antonio Spurs as both teams rank in the top 13 of pace while also ranking in the top 10 in defensive efficiency.
With pricing as such, Giannis Antetokounmpo is really the only person on the Bucks who are interested in. Like Jokic, he possesses one of the top ceilings on the slate with the amount of value out there, people will be looking to get studs into their lineups.
For the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama checks in right behind Jokic and Giannis for high ceiling players and is capable of a slate high performance on any given night. They will be without Jeremy Sochan, which means a big bump for Stephon Castle, who has performed well with him out of the lineup. Castle grades out as out top Spur today and makes for a nice value play in all formats. The rest of the Spurs we mainly have interest in on DK. Chris Paul and Devin Vassell should check in with minimal ownership and are worth a look in a game stack here. The value pieces of Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes and Keldon Johnson are in play as well but it’s a crapshoot as to which one will go off on any night so we would limit rostering just one in your builds. Best of Luck Tonight!