Optimal Plays: Matsuyama, Conners, McNealy, Pendrith, Clanton, Griffin, Hall, McCarthy
GPP Plays: Kim, Henley, Kitayama, Cole, Glover, Thorbjornsen, Spaun, Meissner
Last week we saw Hideki come through with a big round 4 and pull out the victory over Morikawa at the Sentry Open which was a no cut event. This week we are back to a full field event where the top 65 and ties will play the weekend. The tour will remain in Hawaii where the Sony Open will be played at Waialae Country Club which is a par 70 7,044 yard course on Bermuda Grass. This has all the makings for another birdie fest so we will look for golfers who will put themselves in position to score early and often.
A week after claiming victory, we see no reason not to go right back to Hideki Matsuyama this week. Matsuyama gained an incredible 18 shots on the field last week, gaining strokes in every single category, so we know he is in good form. He also made a putter change this winter, and proceeded to gain 5 strokes putting in the putters debut. His history here at Waialae CC is not the best, but it’s interesting to note he has only gained strokes putting here one time, and ironically, he won the event. If Matsuyama can continue his strong putting, he more than likely finds himself near the top of the leaderboard once again come Sunday.
One of the first guys that stands out after Hideki is Mav McNealey who played last week finishing 8th after his win back in November at the RSM Classic. He is a golfer who seems to play his best at the easier courses and this week will be no different. He has made the cut here all three times he played with his best finish coming 2 years ago when he was 7th place. Mav checks all the boxes as well when it comes to key stats. He ranks 1st in Opportunities gained, 5th in SG Par 4, 11th BoB, 12th ARG, and 9th BS. Look for him to continue his hot play here at Waialae where 11 of his 12 rounds at this course have been in the 60s.
Our next stud we are eyeing this week is Tom Kim, as he makes his 2025 debut. Over his last 36 rounds, Kim ranks inside the top 10 in SG: Approach, SG: T2G, and BoB%. Kim grades out to be one of the best tee-to-green players in the field this week. The only thing holding him back is his putting, specifically on Bermuda greens. Kim’s putter continues to improve as he gains experience on tour, so we are optimistic he can putt well enough to contend and even win this week. We will label him as a GPP play, due to the putting concerns, but he has a huge ceiling this week.
Moving down just a tad in salary, we find one of our top projecting plays on the slate in Taylor Pendrith. Pendrith ranks 9th in SG: Approach and 6th in BoB Gained, while also ranking 3rd in Approach Shots from 150-175 yards out, which is a key number this week. Add in the fact that he ranks 9th in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens, Pendrith looks poised to have a solid week at Waialae.
One of our other top plays in the mid-range is the #1 ranked amateur in the world, Luke Clanton. Clanton is an unbelievable young talent, as he has racked up four top-10s in his first seven PGA starts. Over the field’s last 24 rounds, Clanton ranks 1st in BoB%, and 6th in SG: Approach. Clanton is also very accurate off the tee, ranking 5th in Good Drives, which should help him stay out of trouble. We love Clanton’s ceiling this week and is a strong play in all formats.
Next up in the middle tier is Harry Hall priced at 8,100 on DK and is number 1 in the field for Birdies or Better. He showed last night he can score with the best of them, finishing 8th last week at the Sentry Open. He also has experience at this course playing twice making the cut both times with his best finish 28th in 2023. Not only is he ranked 1st in BoB, but he is also ranked 1st in ARG, 4th in putting, and 11th in App. The way he has been hitting his irons he will have plenty of opportunity this week to score and if he can keep his putter hot look for him to make moves once again.
Now digging into find some value we have an oldie but goodie in Lucas Glover who is another golfer that excels on the easier courses on tour in these birdie fests. Over the last 24 rounds on easier courses he ranks 1st in Approach, 3rd in Opps gained, 3rd in BS, 2nd in SG Par 4, and 33rd in BoB. His BoB isn’t as high as it should be due to his putting being a little lackluster but if he could get going even just a little he would find himself in contention again like he was here back in 2022 when he finished 5th.
Another value golfer that excites us this week is JJ Spaun. JJ has been phenomenal over his past 36 rounds, ranking 2nd in SG: Approach, and 8th in BoB gained. This is a similar situation to Harry Hall last week, where only three guys rank inside the top 10 in SG: Approach, and BoB Gained (Pendrith, Clanton, and Spaun). Spaun should not carry much ownership this week and we love targeting him as value in GPPs.
Lastly, Denny McCarthy projects extremely well for us on DK. McCarthy is a tough nut to crack, as he does not grade well in our stat models, as his ball striking has been lackluster of late. However, McCarthy is elite around the greens and on the greens. For this reason you often see McCathy with respectable Vegas odds, since he can rack up birdies in a hurry if he is striking the ball well. He is cheap, and has a high ceiling, so projecting him as great value makes sense. We will continue to monitor his ownership, as this is the type of play that we want to chase at low ownership, but will happily fade as chalk. We will update Discord on this matter prior to lock.