Update #1: With Caris LeVert being ruled out, Wade and Strus become even better plays and see the largest bump. Mitchell and Okoro are still strong options to be considered.
Optimal Plays: Durant, Mitchell (Q), Leonard, Randle, Nurkic, Strus, Goodwin, Fultz (FD), Powell (Q), Okogie, G. Allen (FD)
Top GPP Plays: George, Carter, Robinson, T. Jones, Hyland, Eubanks, Okoro/Wade (only 1)
Slate Overview:
It’s fitting that tonight’s small 3 game Halloween slate is a spooky one! With a slew of players with questionable tags and a team who traded half their roster away, we have more uncertainty than usual. Nevertheless we do see some ways to attack it so let’s dive in!
The biggest thing standing out to us is that we have two studs in Kevin Durant and Donovan Mitchell projected over 10 DK/11 FD points higher than the rest of the field tonight. With smaller slates, raw points are equally, if not more important than PT/$, making these two appealing spend up options. Mitchell does come in with a Q tag which would alter the slate if he were ruled out, but we will get this news before lock and if he does play, we love starting our builds with one or both these two players. Both teams are shorthanded as is and will lean on these two even more than they already do with their team high 33% (KD) and 31% (DM) usage rates. If only wanting to play one stud, we would give a slight lean to KD overall with no Booker once again, but could make a case for Mitchell on FD for the ownership and salary savings.
Moving on we will touch on each individual game this evening, starting with the game with the most uncertainty in the Clippers/Magic. On the Clippers side the tough thing to predict is what the rotation and minutes will look like. They just traded away a big chunk of their team as they acquired James Harden, which will leave them fairly short handed as they take on the Magic. We also have Norm Powell and Ivica Zubac questionable which would only add to their short handedness if either or both were ruled out. Regardless, their two stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George feel slightly under priced. The matchup isn’t fantastic as the Magic play with the slowest pace in the league and present a decently tough challenge defensively, however with the uncertainty surrounding their rotations tonight, it’s possible we could see the Clippers play some unique lineups, putting Kawhi and PG in different positions throughout the game. Either way they both have really solid floors and could be forced to play more minutes tonight, making them solid options on both sites. Bones Hyland is another Clipper we like tonight who would see an additional boost if Powell were to miss. Either way he is a high usage and FPPM player who could see a few more minutes with their already thin roster. Speaking of Powell, if he does suit up, he looks like a strong value play on DK and a decent GPP option on FD. He is sometimes scoring dependent but would get a boost in minutes and if Orlando has shown a weakness defensively, it has been against SG’s. If Zubac suits up we don’t have a ton of interest in him but it’s worth noting he had two nice outings against this similar Magic team last year and would come in at virtually no ownership tonight. If he were to miss, the assumption is that Mason Plumlee would receive the bulk of the minutes and should become a nice option. Finally, we have 3 minimum priced players in Amir Coffey, Kobe Brown and Moussa Diabate. None have received much run in the first 3 games, yet some or all may be forced into some decent minutes tonight, especially if one or both of Powell and Zubac were to sit out. If planning to play any of these 3 you will want to provide as much flexibility as possible so you can swap in whoever grades out the best as more news comes our way. We don’t have a ton of interest in the Magic side but if you want some run backs, Wendell Carter and Markell Fultz look like your best bets.
Next up is the game with the lowest total on the night at 212.5 in Cleveland. Without Jarrett Allen so far this year, the Cavs have really struggled out the gate in terms of defending opposing centers. This makes Mitchell Robinson a strong GPP play in our eyes as they have struggled to opposing centers giving up the second most rebound boost to big men and have also given up the third highest FPPM boost to centers early on this year. There are some other pieces we like in this game tonight starting with Julius Randle. Randle has been racking up boards this season averaging 11.7 through three games, but has struggled to knock down shots with a gross 28% FG rate so far this season. If he can get hot and start knocking down some of these shots, he is underpriced and could crush value. On the opposite end, we have Max Strus who is somehow still alive after averaging 39 MPG so far this year. Strus has shown a great ceiling this year and has produced with peripherals as well to give him a solid floor if the shots aren’t falling. On average he is sitting around a .95 FPPM rate this season and if he continues seeing these minutes he will not be this cheap for much longer. In terms of some GPP plays on the Cavs side we don’t mind pivoting off some value chalk with either one of Isaac Okoro or Dean Wade. Neither are anything special, but should both see around 30 minutes and can provide a pivot off the chalk.
The last thing we want to touch on is the Suns without Devin Booker once again. Obviously we’ve already touched on KD and him being our top overall points projected player tonight, but there is some solid value here. In terms of guards, we have Eric Gordon, Jordan Goodwin and Grayson Allen who all project similarly in terms of value and minutes. Goodwin is seeing the least minutes in this trio, but has been the highest fantasy producer with no Booker so far. We like all three, but prefer Goodwin for upside on DK and Allen on FD. Another strong value play from this offense is Josh Okogie. Okogie should see around 30 minutes tonight as well assisting with the SF role who the Spurs rank in the bottom-10 too in terms of FPPM boost. Rounding out our plays from Phoenix, we like their centers Jusuf Nurkic and Drew Eubanks. Both are high FPPM players in this situation and get a matchup against a San Antonio team ranking second to last to opposing big men. On the other side with the Spurs, we don’t really love any of them, but they do provide some high upside pieces at low ownership to pair with the chalkier Suns if wanting to stack this contest.
Conclusion:
There is a lot of uncertainty to navigate tonight. We like starting your builds with one or both of KD and Donovan Mitchell (keep an eye out for his status). From there, you have some tough decisions to make. Whether you want to stack a game around your stud(s), load up on the shorthanded Clippers, or mix and match your favorite plays from our Optimal/GPP section, there are tons of great routes to go.