Pitching: Heaney (GPP), Mantiply (GPP), Frias (GPP), Castro (GPP)
Hitting: Pham (Optimal CPT), Garver (Optimal CPT), Walker (GPP CPT), Seager (GPP CPT), Gurriel, Moreno, Heim, Jung (GPP)
Bad Chalk: Carroll, Semien, Taveras
On this Halloween night, we have a big treat in store as Game 4 of the World Series will be taking place. The Diamondbacks will be looking to avoid falling in a 3-1 hole while the Rangers will be on the hunt for the commanding series lead themselves.
The pitching on this slate is interesting to say the least as it all will be GPP focused. Andrew Heaney will be on the hill for the Rangers and he has barely pitched in the last month. Heaney has started two games in the postseason and neither of them has gone well. He allowed a run on two hits while striking out just one over 3.2 innings of work against Baltimore and then got pulverized by Houston to the tune of three runs on four hits in 0.2 innings of work. He has exceeded 56 pitches in an outing just once since September 10th so his leash is going to be quite short here. The issue is that he is priced like a full-blown starter in this spot so his ownership is projected to be exceptionally low (only five players on the slate are projected for less than he is). The final issue here is that his numbers are horrendously aligned with Arizona. Righties have smashed his heater with a .240 xISO against the pitch and the Diamondbacks are loaded with hitters that crush the pitch. If you wanted to take the chance that he does pitch decently far into this game, he is a GPP option at best.
On the other side, the Diamondbacks are having a full blown bullpen game in this one. Joe Mantiply will be on the hill to start making him a viable option to plug into your lineups since we know for sure he will be out there. Two arms from the Diamondbacks that we do like are Luis Frias and Miguel Castro. Both of them pitched more than one inning in their bullpen start against the Phillies and finding a bullpen arm with multi-inning upside could make them an elite option to consider for value on this slate. We definitely like plugging in one reliever here as a guaranteed appearance makes them far better value than normal, especially in GPPs.
Thanks to the above, most of the ownership on this slate will be flocking to the bats. We will start with the Diamondbacks as their bats are far easier to predict in this spot. As mentioned above, Heaney substantially struggles against righties that can hit the fastball which is a very, very bad sign against this Arizona team. With him being downright elite to lefties, we would probably steer clear of them. Our top option tonight is easily Tommy Pham. Pham crushes lefty fastballs with a .372 xISO/.498 xwOBA against the pitch. He is priced far too modestly at just $6.6k on DK and he carries loads of upside in this spot. You absolutely can slot him in at captain if you are inclined as he is projected to be the highest owned righty from the Snakes. Outside of Pham, we love Christian Walker (.323/.421), Lourdes Gurriel (.200/.387), and Gabriel Moreno (.191/.421). Walker will carry ownership in this spot while Gurriel and Moreno are more so in the middle of the pack, making them all solid plays in all formats. One final bat to touch on here is Corbin Carroll. Corbin is projected as the highest owned player on the slate and we think this could be a spot to look elsewhere. Heaney dominates lefties with a .103 xISO against them on the season. Projected for north of 50% ownership, we would rather look elsewhere for lower ownership in a better matchup.
As we flip over to the Rangers side of the ledger, it will be quite tough to be able to discern who the best plays are since we do not know who they will be facing at any given moment in time thanks to the bullpen start. Because of that, we just have to fall back on who their best hitters are. Their lineup looks quite different tonight without the services of Adolis Garcia in the middle of it which will force players into different roles than they have played throughout the postseason. Mitch Garver will be the highest owned Ranger and second highest owned player on the slate behind Carroll but for good reason. He is priced very modestly just above Tommy Pham and allows a ton of lineup flexibility with pop. He is now hitting in the three hole tonight which only adds to his upside. Marcus Semien is a player we would rather avoid at this moment in time. He has continued to scuffle throughout the playoffs thus far and is projected just behind Garver in terms of ownership. That is not worth eating on a slate like this where nailing your bats is of the utmost importance. Some great GPP options on this slate from Texas include Corey Seager, Jonah Heim, and Josh Jung. Jung is projected for the lowest ownership out of this trio and has been moved up to the five spot in the lineup tonight which makes him a great option. Lastly, Leody Taveras continues to project as the chalky value option despite being mired in a horrid 1-22 slide. We have no interest in his bat in GPPs.
Conclusion: Andrew Heaney is a viable GPP option on the mound if you want to go in that direction tonight. He may have a very short leash and is priced like a full-blown starter so the risk is quite apparent. With a bullpen start incoming from the Diamondbacks, nailing a pitcher or two from their pen will be very important. Our top options are Mantiply, Frias, or Castro thanks to their multi-inning upside (or the guaranteed appearance in Mantiply’s case). On the offensive side, we love the Arizona righties. Tommy Pham is our favorite bat on the slate with Christian Walker hot on his heels. Feel free to mix in any of the others. The Texas hitters are harder to pin down thanks to the great unknown of which pitchers they will be facing. However, Garver is the optimal option followed by Seager, Heim, and Jung. Best of luck this evening!