Update #3: For NO, Hawkins, CJ and Zion look like strong plays on both sites, where JoVal, Herb Jones and Daniels are viable secondary options as well. For Indy, TJ McConnell is a solid value option on DK and Myles Turner and Bennedict Mathurin are decent run back options on DK if stacking the game.
Update #2: With Duren out, Marvin Bagley becomes an elite play. He will be highly owned but is leaps and bounds better than every other option on the slate. You should lock him in. Additionally, James Wiseman becomes another exceptional option, particularly on DK. They are playable together given Wiseman’s bare minimum salary.
Update #1: Trae Young will play tonight and makes for a great piece of the ATL/WAS game stack!
Optimal Plays: D. Murray, Simmons, Thomas (DK), Brogdon, Walker (DK), Huerter (FD), Hyland, Jo. Green, Okongwu (DK)
Top GPP Plays: Doncic, Jokic, Sabonis, Curry, Young (Q), Sengun, Kuzma, Capela, J. Johnson, Huerter (DK)
Top Game Stacks: ATL/WAS, SAC/GSW
As the calendar has now turned to November, the NBA season will really begin to hit its stride. We have a massive thirteen game slate on our hands tonight that we will dive right into!
Before getting too far down the road, there are a number of key questionable players that we need to pay attention to tonight that we wanted to call your attention to that will change the way to attack the slate. Trae Young, Tyrese Haliburton, Kawhi Leonard, and Brandon Ingram are all in danger of missing their respective games tonight. We will keep you up to speed on all news as the slate draws closer!
The one clear-cut player that you need to have in your lineups is easily Malcolm Brogdon. He is underpriced for the role he continues to play for the Blazers in the absence of Simons. Brogdon is projected for around 1.15 FPPM tonight in nearly 28 minutes of action which makes him exceptional value at his mid-$5k price point on both sites. He has been extremely aggressive offensively, taking no fewer than 15 shots over the course of their four games this year. When you mix in his 4.3 rebounds per game and 4.0 assists per game, his floor is exceptionally high and the shot volume gives him an immense ceiling if he were to get red hot.
Moving along, Onyeka Okongwu continues to be a hot source of debate amongst us here at Really Good Picks. He is projected as one of the highest owned centers on the slate and is really one of the only sub-$4k options that looks good. Game log watchers will see his solid last two games and think he is a lock. The situation is actually far more nuanced than that. Two games ago when he went for 27.3 fantasy points, the Hawks smashed the Bucks and he got a ton of fourth quarter blowout run. Then in the last game for Atlanta, the Hawks were down by around 20 points at the half and then proceeded to go on a rampage in the second half to come back and end up winning the game by 14. Nearly the entirety of this run came right after Capela left the court in the third quarter when the Hawks went on a 35-8 run with Okongwu playing. It is clear Coach Snyder just rode the hot lineup as Capela did not return after that. We touch on him below in our game stack writeup but, given that he is a direct substitute for Capela in most cases, your stance on him should come down to how you are attacking this game.
One team we wanted to be sure to address before going too far was the Brooklyn Nets who continue to be very short handed. Cam Johnson, Nic Claxton, and Spencer Dinwiddie all will miss tonight’s game which leaves some very solid options to consider in their wake in your optimal lineups. Ben Simmons has come on strong since being moved to a front court role for the Nets with back to back double doubles. He is priced very modestly at a sub $7k price point on DK and makes for a very safe play at his 1.1 FPPM projection in 34.5 projected minutes tonight. Cam Thomas continues to see his price tag creep up on DK but it is still at a very solid $1.2k discount off his FD price tag. He has now scored 30+ real points in each of the first three games for Brooklyn and is priced at just $6.6k. He shoots the ball a ton but does struggle to rack up many peripherals. There is clear upside here at his depressed price point but if the shot is not falling, he would fail spectacularly. Lastly, Lonnie Walker IV saw 29 minutes last game after Dinwiddie got hurt and is going to be relied upon heavily now that he will miss tonight’s game. He is projected for nearly 30 minutes of action in this one. His price did jump up $1.1k on DK from the former game after his 36.8 fantasy point performance but he should have a ton of upside here even at his $4.8k price point. All three of them will be pretty highly owned but can serve as great options in all formats if you are inclined.
Without much in the way of clear cheap value tonight, ownership on the expensive studs is once again looking like it will fall by the wayside. As a result, you will see our top GPP plays are littered with stud options for you to consider as a more stars and scrubs build does look like it will be contrarian currently (obviously this is subject to change pending injury news). Luka Doncic is in an exceptional spot and is projected for very minimal ownership on both sites tonight as a result of his massive price tag. Without Kyrie Irving on the court, He sees his usage pop by 2.4% which is a very solid increase for an already ball-dominant player. He has scored more than 70 fantasy points in every game so far this season and is projected for nearly 8.5 fantasy points more than the next closest player on the slate (Jokic) and 15 more than the third best (Giannis). This almost feels like a spot where you just need to make it work out because he has so much upside. Outside of Luka, there are a ton of different ways you can take things. Nikola Jokic continues to look phenomenal and is projected for sub-2% ownership at the time of this writing. For a player of his caliber, that is a massive mistake. With most of the center ownership continuing to focus on cheaper, options continuing to go back to the Joker well may serve you well (pun intended). And finally, as always, stud stacking is a terrific way to go on any slate. As we will discuss below, stacks of Curry/Sabonis or Young/Murray/Kuzma all have very strong upside this evening!
Game Stacks:
There are two game stacks standing out to us this evening, starting with the Atlanta Hawks vs the Washington Wizards. This game features a slate high 238 total which makes sense considering both teams are in the top six in the league in Pace while both also in the bottom nine in Defensive Efficiency. Starting on the Atlanta side, the biggest piece of news we are waiting on is the status of Trae Young. If he were to miss tonight, many of the top Hawks players would become elite. You can see a few names toward the top of the projections on each site, and those players would all receive a boost if he were to sit. While Young hasn’t been lights out to start the year, his price has come down some and he would make for a solid lower owned GPP play if he were to suit up. Regardless of his status, the players standing out from ATL are Dejounte Murray, Jalen Johnson, Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu (DK). Murray is coming off a game where he torched the Wolves and is still priced down on DK where he will come in as a chalkier play, but still one worth playing in GPPs due to his upside. Over on FD, he is priced up enough that his ownership should stay in check and makes for a nice tournament target. Johnson continues to impress, averaging around 30 FPPG to start the year and has solidified a role as a good all around player. Box score watchers may be scared off by Capela tonight, but the reality is his minutes were down the last two games due to blowouts. Tonight, he gets a solid matchup against a Wizards team ranking in the bottom 10 against Centers and if this game stays close, he should have a chance to exceed value. The final player worth a look for Atlanta is backup center Okongwu. This is a DK specific play where he is still priced below 4k and there isn’t a lot of solid value on tonight’s slate. His minutes have been inflated the last two games due to the aforementioned blowouts, but he still is averaging close to a point per minute this season and makes for a good salary saving piece. If choosing to roster Okongwu on DK, we would advise doing so as a stand alone with another game stack, but his price is cheap enough where he can still hit value along with the starters, regardless of the game script.
On the Wizards side of the floor, the best overall run back option is Kyle Kuzma. Kuzma has come out of the gates chucking the rock so far this season, averaging 18 shot attempts per game while shooting close to 50%. His minutes have been limited in two blowouts, but in the game he played a full 36 mins, he put up over 43 fantasy points. Tonight should be a great game environment for him to continue his high volume. After Kuzma, none of the remaining Wizards options are super exciting, but you can make a case to run any of their other starters if stacking this game as they should come in super low owned on both sites tonight.
The second stack that we are interested in tonight, and think could go somewhat overlooked, is in the Bay Area as the Sacramento Kings take on the Golden State Warriors. These two teams played just last Friday in a high scoring shootout where the Warriors won 122-114. Two notable differences in tonight’s matchup are that the Kings will be without De’Aaron Fox and the Warriors will have Draymond Green in their lineup. The reason the Kings players aren’t popping more in the projections is because most were priced up due to the Fox injury, and yet we still think this could be a sneaky game environment to target at very low ownership. We will first turn to Kings big man, Domantas Sabonis. He torched the Warriors to the tune of 59 fantasy points, and while he may face some Draymond defense tonight, he should also absorb some of the usage left behind by Fox, making him a nice low owned stud. Keegan Murray continues to produce solid fantasy scores despite shooting under 40% from the field. He has been priced up on both sites but should see a boost in opportunity and we like him again on DK tonight as a target in this stack. Kevin Huerter grades out as the top play on both sides and finally broke out of his shooting slump last game where he produced 32 fantasy points in 37 minutes. Lastly, Harrison Barnes and Malik Monk have been priced up on DK where we don’t think they are necessary but their prices remain affordable on FD and are worthy of the last spot in consideration when stacking this game.
Over on the Golden State side of the ball, Stephen Curry is always in consideration for a stud spend up and he should come in virtually unowned tonight. We added this anecdote to our breakdown prior to their meeting on the 27th. Dating back to 2016, he has played the Kings 18 times during the regular season and scored fewer than 40 DK points just twice with a floor of 35.8. Over that same span, he has eclipsed the 55 fantasy point threshold ELEVEN times. After his 57.5 fantasy point performance that night, he has now been higher than 55 fantasy points in 12 of his last 19 against Sacramento. This is simply a matchup he dominates. Kevon Looney lit up the Kings in their first matchup and remains a solid mid-tier play. Klay Thompson is the final piece we are interested in and it’s mainly on FD. He is priced below 6K and we know he can pop off on a hot shooting night.
Conclusion: We have a large slate tonight that has a number of key players listed as questionable including Tyrese Haliburton, Trae Young, Brandon Ingram, and Kawhi Leonard. Their availability will dictate a ton in terms of how this slate evolves so staying close will be very important. The main man you want to lock into your lineups this evening is Malcolm Brogdon. His role is exceptionally safe and he has loads of upside given his shot volume. A trio of Nets look phenomenal including Ben Simmons, Lonnie Walker IV, and Cam Thomas on DK in particular. They are going to be highly owned but are very optimal options. The studs and scrubs build will not be common tonight. Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic are projected for so many more fantasy points than the next closest options that it makes sense to be overweight on them in this spot. You also have loads of upside by stacking our two favorite game stacks in ATL/WAS and SAC/GSW. Best of luck tonight!