Pitching: Eovaldi (GPP CPT), Gallen (GPP), Sewald, Ginkel
Hitting: Carroll (Optimal CPT), Garver (Optimal CPT), Thomas (GPP Value CPT), Semien, Marte (GPP), Jung (GPP), Pham
Bad Chalk: Taveras
After an absolute demolition last night, the Texas Rangers are on the precipice of their first championship in franchise history. The Diamondbacks have been masters at fighting back from the dead this postseason so we cannot count them out yet. We (hopefully) should have a good one in store for us!
Ownership on this slate is projected to be exceptionally spread out which will make it very wide open. You really can make it whatever you wish as all but two players are projected between 20-40% ownership, with nobody projected for greater than 40% at the time of writing. The pitchers on this slate are both projected for relatively little ownership as 12 different hitters are projected for more ownership than Zac Gallen and Nathan Eovaldi is projected for the third lowest ownership on the slate.
We will start tonight’s breakdown with the exceptionally low-owned Nathan Eovaldi. He had been absolutely electric in the postseason thus far up until he ran into trouble in Game 1 of the series. Over the course of his four starts, he had thrown 26 innings while allowing just seven runs on 21 hits while striking out 28. That all changed when he allowed five runs on six hits over 4.2 innings of work in Game 1. However, even through his struggles, he still managed to strike out eight and post a respectable 12.3 fantasy points. The real key for him here is that he has thrown no fewer than 88 pitches which shows that he has a superb leash for the playoffs. The Rangers clearly trust him to work through the order three times which adds immense upside for any pitcher. On the season, Eovaldi has been quite good against righties as they have just a .167 xISO/.330 xwOBA off of him overall. There is not one pitch that we can point to that can be targeted as his numbers are quite solid to righties across the board. Lefties have been a different story as they have a .228 xISO off his heater on the season. At his projected ownership level, this is a spot where we feel you just have to take a chance on his upside which he has flashed routinely throughout the playoffs so far. When you mix in the fact that the Rangers are up 3-1 and have no incentive to decimate their bullpen to save their season, this is too good of a spot to pass up. He makes for an exceptional GPP captain on this slate.
On the other side, we have Zac Gallen. Gallen has been nothing short of terrible in the postseason so far. Gallen is priced ever so slightly above Eovaldi and has had a very different postseason experience than Nathan. Zac was absolutely pulverized by the Phillies in his last two starts of that series, allowing nine runs on 14 hits over 11 innings of work. Those struggles then carried over to Game 1 of the World Series when he allowed three runs on four hits over five frames while walking four Rangers. Gallen has been quite good against lefties this season, holding them to a .163 xISO/.319 xwOBA overall. Like Eovaldi, there is not a single pitch in his arsenal worth targeting against lefties. The righties have found some success against his heater holding a .207 xISO off the pitch however. With him projected to draw more ownership than Eovaldi in addition to his struggles in the playoffs so far, we would certainly prefer to look in Eovaldi’s direction. There also is the added risk of this being an elimination game for Arizona. That should mean his leash is even shorter than normal if he does get into trouble. We would only look his way in deeper GPP formats as there is a ton of risk here. From a bullpen perspective, we would stick to playing Sewald or Ginkel. With their season on the line here, Arizona will not hesitate to deploy both of them.
As we turn to the bats, we will start by focusing on the Diamondbacks sluggers against Eovaldi. As discussed above, the best way to target Nathan is with lefties that can hit the fastball. Two bats that we absolutely love in this spot are Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas. Carroll crushes righty heaters with a .285 xISO/.421 xwOBA off the pitch and also carries tons of speed upside as well atop the Snakes batting order. Thomas was superb in the NLCS and is an exceptional value on this slate. He too mashes righty fastballs with a .202/.381 line off the pitch. Carroll is projected to be quite highly owned but looks exceptional. Thomas is projected for minimal ownership and is one of our top GPP options tonight with only three players projected for less ownership than him. Lastly, Ketel Marte is another option that holds a .375 xwOBA off the heater and is projected for very relatively little ownership in this spot as well. He too makes for a great GPP option. Finally, we will wrap up this section by calling out a couple options that are drawing some steam on this slate. Evan Longoria is projected as the highest owned bat on the slate with Tommy Pham not too far behind him. They both crush righty fastballs with lines of .316/.374 and .276/.438 respectively. Longoria has been horrible in the playoffs thus far so we would probably not advise eating that chalk, especially with Eovaldi’s good numbers against righties. Pham has been a different story though and could make a solid addition to your lineups.
For the Texas Rangers, we already discussed how targeting Gallen with righties has been the way to go. The optimal option here to throw into your lineups is easily Mitch Garver. Garver holds a .460 xISO/.510 xwOBA off heaters this season which aligns superbly. Josh Jung is another guy who is projected for pretty low ownership on the slate. With a .281/.368 line against the heater we love him here as well. A couple of other great options include Marcus Semien (.250/.392) and Corey Seager from the left side (.442/.488). Bats like Heim, Taveras, and Lowe are projected to get all the ownership from the Rangers given their cheaper price tags in combination with their ability to hit from the left side. None of them have good numbers in this spot and we would not be inclined to play them. A full on Texas barrage with Eovaldi and some of the righties looks like an exceptional way to play this slate.
Conclusion: Our favorite captain on this slate is clearly Nathan Eovaldi. He has had an exceptional floor/ceiling combo in the postseason so far and that should continue tonight at very low ownership. Gallen has struggled and may have a very short leash tonight in a win or go home game. He also does face an offensive gauntlet. Sewald and Ginkel are the best bullpen options if you want to go that route as they will deploy them early if they need to stay alive. On the offensive side, we love both Carroll and Thomas. Marte looks like a solid third option while a chalkier Pham is playable from the right side. For the Rangers, bats like Garcia, Jung, Semien, and Garver look exceptional in this spot. Best of luck this evening!