Optimal Plays: Embiid (DK), Durant, St. Curry (FD), Hardaway Jr, Jones Jr, G. Williams (DK), Hardy, Eubanks, Powell (FD)
GPP Plays: Jokic, Young, Sabonis, Kuzma, Sengun, VanVleet, Podziemski (Q), Gafford, Avdija (FD), Powell (DK), Jackson-Davis (DK), Metu
Top Game Stacks: DAL/HOU (optimal), PHX/SAC (GPP), WAS/GSW (GPP)
Pending Injury News: Podziemski, Monk, Eason, Melton, Okogie
Today’s slate is marked by one team’s dire injury situation transparently dictating much of how this slate will develop. We have a normally fun six game slate on our hands to dive into and we will break it all down for you as always!
We have to start this evening’s breakdown with the giant elephant in the room, the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas will be without Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Dante Exum, and Dereck Lively tonight leaving a TON of usage to be soaked up in their absence. The issue here is that both sites released their pricing prior to the news of Luka missing tonight’s game being released so we just have a ton of absurdly cheap Mavericks that you pretty much HAVE to play. We will start with Jaden Hardy who will be their floor general tonight and has one of the highest point per dollar projections we have seen all year. Priced at just $4.9k on FD and an absurd $4.3k on DK, He is projected to play nearly 32 minutes in this spot. In games where he has seen 20+ minutes this season, he has scored no fewer than 22.8 fantasy points. He has been nearly a 1.0 FPPM player this season and is projected for 1.23 FPPM tonight. His projection has him slated for 9x value which is just absurd. He will be very chalky but you need to play him in this spot and move along. The same goes for Tim Hardaway, Jr. in all likelihood. He won’t be as highly owned as Hardy simply because he is more expensive and is not a value piece at his mid-range price tag. However, he still is projected as the second highest owned player on both sites tonight and should be the alpha for the Mavs from a scoring perspective in this spot. He will have the highest usage on the team and has been posting relevant fantasy scores off and on even with Luka in the lineup. We easily should see 20+ shot attempts from him here making him an excellent option. The third piece to consider on both sites is Derrick Jones, Jr. He is not projected for as much ownership as these first two pieces but still is projected to carry the third highest ownership projection on the slate. Jones played 39 minutes in their last game against the Clippers and is currently projected for just 33.5 tonight. If that trended upwards, he would have even higher upside than we currently are projecting at his 5.8 point per dollar mark. Finally, we have a couple of more site specific plays due to pricing. On FanDuel, Dwight Powell is priced below the $4k mark while he is $500 more expensive on DK. He is a very low FPPM producer and is still viable on DK to be sure, however at his $3.9k price tag on FD, he is yet another optimal value piece against a Houston team that ranks 21st in DvP against centers on the year. On DraftKings, the play is Grant Williams. Williams is priced above $5k on FD making him a much tougher sell over there. However, at just $4.7k on DK, he is squarely in play for added value. Like Powell, Williams is a low FPPM player, but he is projected for 35 minutes in this spot and easily should be able to score at least 20 fantasy points, with a ceiling pushing over 30. The final option to mention here is more of a DK-only GPP consideration. Seth Curry is currently questionable for tonight’s game. He missed their last game against the Clippers but he is priced at just $3.7k on DK while being $5.2k on FD. He is projected for much less ownership than the other options here and is the cheapest of them. He can get hot in a hurry making him an excellent GPP option if he does take to the court. To round things out here, you pretty much need some of the Mavs in your lineup tonight due to the material mispricings. We would start with the combo of Jaden Hardy and Tim Hardaway, Jr. for sure. Once you get past them, Derrick Jones, Jr. is the next option we would plug into your lineups. You can stop there if you wish or you can add in one more if you want. In optimal lineups, we would play one of Powell (FD) or Williams (DK). In GPPs, Curry (DK) is a strong move. We would not play more than four Mavs tonight as that starts to stretch yourself too thin on a slate with some great options in other spots.
Because this slate really is the Mavs and everyone else, the advisable way to build is to start with your Mavs stacks and then fill in the rest of your spots with a game stack around them. Before diving into a couple of those spots, we do want to call out a few of the optimal spots to target to pair with the Mavs. With all of the value available, the stars and scrubs build tonight is going to be the most popular. Joel Embiid has been on another planet of late as he has now scored 60+ DK points in an astounding TWELVE consecutives games with 70+ in three straight and six of those twelve. There really is nothing else to be said about the way he is playing at this point and he is priced at a $1.7k discount on DK in this spot. His price dropped by $400 since his 77 DK point performance in their last game which also makes no sense. He is quite affordable and is the top stud on the site by a comfortable margin. Kevin Durant is playing in one of our top game stacks tonight in his game against the Sacramento Kings which carries the second highest total on the slate with a nice, tight three point spread. The Kings rank 22nd in DvP against PFs on the season and he is priced just around $10k on both sites. The last optimal stud to mention comes from our other top game stack between the Washington Wizards and the Golden State Warriors. One of our favorite strategies all season long has been to target the defense of the Wizards. Steph Curry is priced at an absurd $800 discount on FD tonight facing off with the 28th ranked defense against PGs this season. He has not gone ballistic recently and does have some major blowout concerns in a game with a 13 point spread. The upside with him is always there though, especially at that price point.
From a game stacking perspective, we already touched on a couple of our favorite spots to target. The most “optimal” route is to run back your Mavs stacks with a couple of Rockets in the same game that get to go up against this same shorthanded Mavs team on the other end of the court. Fred VanVleet has been otherworldly of late with back to back performances of 71 and 63.5 fantasy points. In response, DK dropped his price by $400 which makes no sense whatsoever. He is only $500 more expensive on FD which also keeps him squarely in play for GPPs over there as well. Dallas is not a good defensive team against point guards as is, ranking 19th in DvP on the season. He looks like an excellent piece to run back in this spot. Alperen Sengun is the next Rocket to consider. After a blazing hot start to the season, he has come back down to earth some. With a ton of great centers tonight, we probably would not prioritize him here, simply because of the opportunity cost of him taking up the spot. However, he does grade out well from a point per dollar perspective and clearly fits the stack as a result. Lastly, we have either Jabari Smith, Jr. or Tari Eason. Eason missed the last game for Houston after seemingly seeing a quick rise into more playing time and had been crushing it with 36+ DK points in three of his last five games. However, he also missed practice on Thursday which does not bode well for his availability tonight. If he does miss, that brings Jabari Smith, Jr. firmly into play. We were high on him in their last game against Atlanta and he exploded for 63.3 fantasy points. DK spiked his price to a season high $7.1k in response, which will make him much more of a GPP play tonight given the low floor he will carry. However, the ceiling would be undeniable.
Moving past this game, the two late night hammer games taking place in the San Francisco Bay Area look like they will be exceptional to stack. The more optimal of the two will take place between the Suns and Kings as it carries the second highest total with just a three point spread. We already touched on Kevin Durant above as the first key piece to consider here. Stacking studs from this game could be a really fun way to go as there are some great options. Our favorite comes from the Sacramento side as Domantas Sabonis gets to go up against a Phoenix team that will be without Jusuf Nurkic this evening. That is a huge loss for their interior and Sabonis is priced below the $10k figure on both sites. He is projected to play 36 minutes against a combination of bench players for the Suns giving him 60+ point upside as we have seen on multiple occasions this season. He is projected for roughly 10% ownership currently making him a very strong GPP option. While you also could turn to either Devin Booker or De’Aaron Fox here as well, they don’t grade out quite as well as some of the other GPP studs tonight. You certainly can play either of them and feel confident and justified in that decision. The final option to turn to here is Drew Eubanks. As mentioned, Jusuf Nurkic will miss tonight’s game which should move Eubanks into the starting lineup in his place. He is one of the better point per dollar options on FD at his $400 discount and he makes for a great optimal piece there while being a bit more GPP at $4.5k on DK. If you really wanted to get crazy, you could turn to Chimezie Metu for value in this spot. He is currently projected for nearly 19 minutes tonight and that certainly has room to grow if Eubanks were to get into foul trouble against Sabonis. Metu is priced below $4k on both sites and is carrying a fraction of Eubanks’ ownership. There is upside here for sure which could be unlocked if the game unfolds appropriately.
Finally, we do like targeting the game with the highest total on the slate between the Wizards and Warriors. The downfall here is that it easily could blowout as it carries a thirteen point spread currently. We already discussed Steph Curry above. With the Wiz ranking 1st in pace and 29th in defensive rating, there are some strong options to consider here. One of our favorite GPP options here that doesn’t project all that well but has shown great upside of late is rookie Trayce Jackson-Davis. He is pretty much unplayable on FD where he has been priced up to $6.1k for some reason. However, he still sits at $4.6k on DK, bringing him in at a $1.5k discount on the site where he is projected for just 6% ownership. Kerr is beginning to actually coach the team in the absence of Draymond Green and he gave Jackson-Davis the most minutes of any big for the Warriors in their last game (29). He has posted back to back performances of 33.5 and 34.8 DK points and now gets a matchup with the Wizards who rank 27th in DvP. He is a very strong pivot off of the higher owned value in this spot. Brandin Podziemski is currently listed as questionable tonight and is another Warrior that looks great in this spot. We have seen 40+ point upside from him on multiple occasions of late since he moved into the starting lineup and the Wiz rank 28th in DvP against SGs on the year. On the other side of this game, there are a couple Wizards you certainly could run this back with. Daniel Gafford is priced right around $6k on both sites and has been crushing recently with 45+ fantasy points in two of his last three games. There is certainly a ceiling here, the only downside being he is yet another center. “The Kuz”, Kyle Kuzma, is priced around the $8k mark on both sites and we all know what he is at this point. An entirely inconsistent option that carries a very high ceiling as we saw with his 53 fantasy point performance in their last game. He is a GPP-only option. Finally, Deni Avdija looks like a more optimal option on FD in particular where he is priced at a $900 discount. Like many Wizards players, he is not super consistent but the price tag keeps him firmly in play.
Lastly, there is one final more GPP approach to take we wanted to call out. With the value available on the slate, jamming in both Embiid and Nikola Jokic, who also looks like one of the best studs on the slate, is a possible GPP route to take. Most people would never consider this due to their price tags and the fact that there are a ton of cheaper centers to consider tonight. However, their ceilings are immense in their respective spots and we are here to tell you that it is doable. Consider this approach if you are feeling a bit frisky.
Conclusion: To wrap things up, this slate truly begins with the Dallas Mavericks. We would not play more than four of them in this spot. The top two are clearly Hardy and Hardaway, Jr. They are followed by Jones, Jr. and one of Grant Williams/Dwight Powell. Seth Curry is a solid GPP option if he does play. We love rounding out lineups by game stacking in one of a few spots, notably running it back with the Houston Rockets or playing one of the two games in the SF Bay Area as late night hammers. Best of luck tonight!